Trade Cards with broker scanners

A broker's options scanner ranks trades for the scenario typed into it, so the scenario decides the ranking. This guide shows how to type in the view a Trade Card states.

Interactive Brokers' Option Strategy Lab is the worked example. Ohey Inc is not affiliated with Interactive Brokers, and it is named only as an example of a broker's tool. Other brokers offer similar scanners, with different labels.

Every Trade Card figure in this guide is paper trading. It is hypothetical and not a promise.

At a glance

• What a scanner does. It ranks option structures for a scenario typed into it. It never sees the Trade Card.
• The expected move. The option market's one standard deviation range to an expiry. About two times in three the price ends inside it. It is not a forecast and not a target.
• What to copy. Two price levels and a date, not percents. A level pasted onto the wrong name shows at once. The date is the one the card names.
• The view to enter. A falling price for a bearish card, a rising price for a bullish one. Either way the scenario ends within the expected move, by the card's expiry.
• The probability basis. Market Implied. It is the same basis as the card's probability of profit, so the two should agree.
• A breakout is another bet. It takes a finish outside the range as given, up or down. Typing the expected move itself as that range takes the one time in three outcome as given.
• Expected profit and Sharpe. Both follow the scenario typed in. On the market's own odds, a fairly priced trade has an expected profit near zero before costs.
• Calendars and diagonals. The desk replayed them on real quotes, 2010 to 2026. None made money after paying the bid and ask.

Key difference. A Trade Card states a view and the market's own price for its risk. A scanner states the scenario typed into it. Change the scenario and the ranking changes.

What a card states

A card gives the side, the hold, the win rate and the trade. The trade comes with its expiry, its limit, its max loss, its max gain and its probability of profit.

The win rate is the desk's measured rate for names ranked like this one, beside its coin flip. The probability of profit is a different number. It is the option market's own chance of ending past the breakeven at expiry.

One case, 1 October 2026

The figures below come from one evening. The card is the desk's published view of MU, the same for every reader.

A card that says Bearish, low confidence points to a side, but not far enough for a signal. The win rate sits 2 points above the average stock.

In the scanner, the scenario was MU breaks out +15.70% / -13.80% range by Oct23. Probability Basis was set to Market Implied. Those are the expected move's own figures, typed in as a breakout range.

The option market priced about a 32 percent chance of MU finishing outside that band by 23 October. That was 14.6 percent above it and 17.7 percent below it.

The scenario takes that finish as given, so the scanner ranked buying volatility first. The scanner's own figures are hypothetical too.

• A long strangle. The 23 October 1100/1105 strangle cost 115.25 a share. It showed an expected profit of $25,270, a Sharpe of 11.8 and a probability of profit of 41 percent.
• Ratio spreads. Expected profit of $13,000 to $16,000. A ratio spread buys and sells unequal numbers of options.

The scanner did what it was told. Typing the expected move in as a breakout range treats it as a forecast of a breakout, and it is not one. The sections below explain each number.

What an expected move is

Expected move is the option market's one standard deviation range to an expiry. About two times in three the price ends inside it. About one time in three it ends outside.

It restates option quotes from the close. It is not a forecast and not a target.

• Two legs. The up leg and the down leg are priced from different strikes, so the range can be lopsided. MU's was plus 15.7 percent and minus 13.8 percent.
• A wide range is a price. MU's range was wide because its option prices carried a lot of movement. It is the market's price for movement, not a prediction of it.
• It grows with the date. A later expiry carries a wider range. A range means little without its date.
• Where it is found. The Expected Move window lists both levels, in dollars and as percents, for every captured expiry. Expected Move explains the screen.
• Not Model move. Model move is the model's own size of move over 20 trading days. It is a different number from a different source. An options trader's FAQ sets the two side by side.

Copying it into a scanner

Copy the expected move as two price levels and a date. A level pasted onto the wrong name shows at once, because it sits nowhere near that name's close. A percent pasted onto the wrong name looks as plausible as the right one.

Two price levels can also be checked against the close at a glance. For MU, 918 and 1232 sit either side of the 1065.11 close.

Where a scanner takes only percents, each one is worked from the same close. For MU, 1232 is plus 15.7 percent and 918 is minus 13.8 percent from 1065.11.

The date

Use the date the card names. It is the trade's expiry, and the scenario's date belongs there.

The hold is what the win rate is measured over, 45 or 20 trading days. It is not the date to type in. A different date gives a different range.

In the MU case, the scanner's date, 23 October, matched the date of the expected move.

Entering the card's view

The card and the scanner use different words for the same things.

A falling price, within the expected move, by the card's expiry is the scenario that matches a bearish card. A rising price matches a bullish one. For the MU card, the bottom of that range is about 918.

Menus differ by broker and by version. Where a scanner has no falling scenario, a range from the bottom of the expected move up to the close is the nearest fit.

Market Implied means the odds come from option prices. The card's probability of profit comes from the same place: each leg's own implied volatility, from its bid and ask.

So the scanner's probability of profit for the card's own legs should land close to the card's. A large gap means the date, the strikes or the scenario differ from the card's.

The win rate has no box in a scanner. MU's was 46 percent against 44 for the average stock, paper. How a signal is measured explains it.

Why a breakout is a different bet

A bearish card names one direction, and the scenario that matches it is a falling price. A breakout scenario names no direction. It pays when the price ends outside the range, up or down.

The expected move is the range the market treats as ordinary. Typed in as a breakout range, it takes the other third as given. For MU the market priced that at about 32 percent.

With that finish taken as given, the scenario favours any structure that gains on a large move. The scanner ranked buying volatility first because the scenario said to.

The effect grows with the distance. The further outside the expected move a band sits, the better a big move structure looks inside it.

The MU band typed onto SPY, whose own expected move to 23 October was about 730 to 785, made every figure absurd. A band copied from one name onto another breaks every figure.

Why expected profit and Sharpe follow the scenario

Expected profit and Sharpe are worked out for the scenario typed in. Change the range, the date or the direction and both columns change, and so does the ranking.

On the option market's own odds, the expected profit of a fairly priced trade is about zero before costs. A large expected profit therefore comes from the scenario, not from a cheap trade.

The MU strangle is the example. It showed an expected profit of $25,270 beside a probability of profit of 41 percent. On the market's own odds it finishes below zero more often than not.

The strangle cost 115.25 a share, about 11 percent of the close. Its expected profit is an average inside a scenario that took a large move as given.

A Sharpe ratio divides an average result by its spread. Both are worked out inside the scenario, so a scenario that takes a big move as given can give a high ratio. A Sharpe of 11.8 describes the arithmetic of the scenario, not the quality of a trade.

Ranking trades by either column rewards the scenario. The figures that describe a trade on its own are the card's: the limit, the max loss, the max gain and the probability of profit.

Calendars and diagonals

A scanner may rank calendar spreads and diagonal spreads as well. A calendar spread uses two expiries at one strike. It sells the near one and buys the later one. A reverse calendar does the opposite, and a diagonal spread uses two strikes as well as two expiries.

Rows of this kind gain on a move before the near expiry. They lose when the price sits near the strike.

Their result also depends on the later month's implied volatility on the day the near option expires. That is not known in advance, so a scanner has to assume it.

The desk replayed calendars and diagonals on stored bid and ask quotes. It covered SPY, QQQ, IWM and DIA from 2010 to 2026, and the desk's own signals from 2022. Each trade closed both legs on the near expiry day, at that day's real quotes.

• None made money after the bid and ask. At the mid price they came out near break even. Crossing four bid and ask spreads turned every one into a loss.
• The scanner's chance runs high. A risk graph assumes implied volatility stays put and both legs fill at the mid. On SPY, a reverse call calendar of this kind won 41.5 percent of the time, paying the spread, against about 51 percent on the risk graph.
• Recent years were worse. On 2025 and 2026 entries it won 34.5 percent, against a risk graph near 53 percent. Across 2010 to 2026 it made money in 1 year of 17.
• The max loss on a reverse calendar is not a cap. About 4 percent of those trades lost more than the stated max loss.

In the same replay, after the bid and ask, three of the desk's own structures made money on the same signals. They were the bull call spread, the long call and the bear call spread. Every figure here is paper and hypothetical.

A short checklist

Each line is a state to confirm before any row is judged.

1. The range is two price levels from the Expected Move window, for the same name as the card, not percents.
2. The date is the card's expiry.
3. The scenario runs the way the card does, falling for bearish and rising for bullish, within the expected move. It is not a breakout.
4. The probability basis is Market Implied, and the probability of profit for the card's legs lands close to the card's.
5. Expected profit and Sharpe are treated as products of the scenario, not as quality scores.
6. Max loss on a row stays the same whatever scenario is typed in.
7. A calendar or diagonal row lost money in the desk's replay after the bid and ask, and its stated max loss is not a cap.

What this guide is not

It teaches how to carry a published view into a broker's tool. It does not pick a scanner, a row or a trade, and it is the same for every reader.

Frequently asked questions

Which expected move goes into the scanner? The one for the card's expiry, as two price levels. The Expected Move window lists both for every captured expiry.

Why are the two sides of the range different sizes? The up leg and the down leg are priced from different strikes. MU's range to 23 October was plus 15.7 percent and minus 13.8 percent.

Is the expected move a target? No. It is the option market's one standard deviation range. About two times in three the price ends inside it. A move past it is possible, and the range changes every night.

Why not type the expected move in as a breakout range? A breakout takes a finish outside the range as given. The expected move is the range the price ends inside about two times in three. For MU the market priced the other outcome at about 32 percent.

What scenario matches a bearish card? A falling price, ending within the expected move, by the card's expiry, with Probability Basis set to Market Implied. A rising price matches a bullish card.

Why can one row show a large expected profit and a modest probability of profit? The expected profit is an average worked out inside the scenario. The probability of profit counts how often the trade ends above zero on the market's own odds. MU's strangle showed $25,270 and 41 percent.

Is a high Sharpe in a scanner a sign of a sound trade? No. Sharpe divides an average by its spread, both worked out inside the scenario. A scenario that takes a big move as given can give a high figure to any structure that gains on one.

Does the card's win rate belong in the scanner? No. The win rate is the desk's measured rate for names ranked like this one, paper, beside its coin flip. A Market Implied scanner uses option prices instead.

Does the desk have a view on calendars or diagonals? It replayed them on real quotes from 2010 to 2026. None made money after paying the bid and ask, on the index funds or on the desk's own signals.

Related panes

• Trade Cards states the side, the trade, the limit and the probability of profit.
• Expected Move lists the levels for every expiry.
• Options strategy families describes spreads, calendars and diagonals.
• An options trader's FAQ sets expected move against model move.
• How a signal is measured explains the win rate and its coin flip.