Market Mood

One of the Market Radar screens, it shows the published prices people use to judge how nervous the market is. These are prices other firms and agencies publish, shown as they were published.

Open Market Radar

At a glance

• Two kinds of line. The volatility readings come from option prices. The rates and credit readings come from the bond market, not from options.
• What the numbers mean. On the volatility lines, a bigger number means people are paying more for protection against price moves. On the spreads, a bigger number means lenders are charging weak borrowers more.
• No units on the volatility lines. They carry no unit at all. So read each one against its own past year, never against another line.
• One line at a time. You pick a line and it draws large. Every line, including that one, also stays as a small card below.
• Whose numbers these are. Not ours. Every card names the firm or agency that published the figure, and the date that figure belongs to.
• The priced move card. One card, above the rest, states what the S&P 500 fund's own listed options currently charge. A move up and a move down, to the nearest month, as priced. Not one of the published series below it.
• What it will not do. There is no single score, no dial and no word for the mood. We attach no judgement to any level here.
• Key difference. Market Mood = prices other people published. Market Conditions = a different screen, where Ohey's own model puts a word on the volatility environment.

Why there is no single number here

The famous fear and greed dials take roughly these same inputs. They weight them by a rule that is not published, then print one figure on a coloured arc.

• The weights are hidden. Somebody chose those weights. You cannot see them, so you cannot check them.
• One number reads like advice. A single figure on an arc reads as a view on what to do next, built from other people's numbers with hidden weights. Ohey will not build that score.
• So we show the inputs instead. Each line stands on its own, with one sentence saying what it measures. The reading is left to you.

What each line measures

Up to ten lines, in two groups. A line is left out when its source could not be read that day.

An option is a contract that pays out if a price moves. People buy them as protection. When people pay more for that protection, these numbers go up.

Volatility prints. These are all worked out from option prices.

The three share markets named above:

• S&P 500. Five hundred large US companies.
• Nasdaq 100. A hundred of the largest companies listed on Nasdaq.
• Russell 2000. Two thousand smaller US companies.

Rates and credit. These come from the bond market, not from options. A spread is the extra a borrower pays above US government debt.

A few more facts about those lines.

• VIX is a price. It shows what people are paying today for protection against index moves. It is not a prediction, and nobody is accountable for it as one. It says nothing about direction. Ohey publishes no bands for it and attaches no words to its level.
• VVIX and VIX can move apart. VVIX can rise while VIX stays low. That means VIX options are priced for more movement in VIX, even while VIX itself sits low. We attach no reading to that gap.
• SKEW is a shape of prices. It is not a probability of a crash, however often it is described as one.
• VXN and RVX are read beside VIX. Comparing them says which part of the market carries the implied movement.
• Which way the high yield spread moves. It widens when lenders want more to take the same risk.
• The two credit spreads are read beside each other. Together they say whether lenders are backing away from risk in general, or only from the weakest names.
• The curve lines. The last two rows are called curve lines. They compare what the US government pays to borrow for a long time against a short time.
• When the two curve lines disagree. Each one measures against a different short borrowing length, so they can point different ways. The ten year less three month version is the one most of the recession literature uses. We show both and attach no reading to either.

Units. The spreads and the two curve lines are in percentage points, written pp. The volatility lines carry no unit. So read each one against its own past year, not against another line.

What is on the screen

• The priced move card (2026-09-24). What the S&P 500 fund's own options charge right now, up and down, to the nearest month. Plus a small line of implied volatility by days to expiry. Read off the fund's own listed options, the same figure Positioning states as "as priced". It draws blank when the desk holds no options capture for the fund that night.
• The large chart. Whichever line you selected, drawn over recent trading days. Its latest reading and that reading's date sit above it.
• Under the chart. Three facts about the line you selected.
  • Low and high. The lowest and the highest reading of the past year.
  • How many readings. How many readings that past year covers.
  • Where the latest one sits. Where the last reading falls between that low and that high.
• A card for every line. The cards sit under two headings, Volatility prints and Rates and credit. A print here just means a published reading.
• What one card shows. The latest value, and its change from the reading before. Then the date and source of that reading. Then a small marker for its position in the past year's range.
• Trading days only. We draw only days the US stock market was open.

Why a card says "from the reading before" and not "on the day". The spreads and the curve lines publish on their own schedule. They run a step behind the volatility readings, so the reading before is often not yesterday. Each card carries its own date, so that difference is visible rather than papered over.

The range marker. It shows where the latest reading sits inside the past year of that same line. That is all it does. It is not high or low. It is not cheap or dear. It is not a score and not a signal. The copy on this screen is written to keep it that way.

What is deliberately not here

• No composite, no dial, no gauge.
• No conditions label. Market Conditions is the one screen on this desk that puts a word on the volatility environment. That is Ohey's model reading it for the book, and it is labelled as model output. This screen is market data.
• Numbers only, no label. This screen shows the published numbers and stops there.

Using it with discipline

• Volatility is not direction. A high VIX means large moves are priced. It does not mean prices fall.
• These lines mostly move together. When one of them moves on its own, you can only see it by reading them separately. A single blended number would hide it.
• Credit and equity volatility answer different questions. The spread is about whether lenders will fund weak companies. VIX is about the next month of index movement.

Frequently asked questions

Why not just show a fear and greed score? Because the weighting behind every such score is somebody's opinion presented as a measurement. A single number on an arc also gets read as advice.

Are these Ohey's numbers? No. Every line here is a published price or spread that Ohey transcribed. Each card names the source it came from.

How current are they? Each line carries its own date. Most update every trading day.

Why is there no unit on the volatility lines? Because they are index levels, and the card prints no unit beside them. Read each one against its own past year.

What does pp mean? Percentage points. The spreads and the two curve lines are published that way.

Related panes

• Market Conditions, the model's own reading of the volatility environment the book was built under.
• Volatility Weather, the same kind of measurement for one company rather than the index.
• Breadth Board, how much of the market is taking part.
• Release Calendar, the announced dates of the economic releases these prices trade around.