Volatility Weather

One stock, one curve. It shows what the options market charges for movement out to each date that stock has listed options for. Nothing here comes from Ohey's own model. It is observed market data, not the output of the models behind the signals panes. Every plan sees the same figures, free or paid, because we do not hold public market data back. See Reading The Options Suite for how to read it.

At a glance

• Implied volatility. Part of an option's price covers how much the market thinks the stock might move before that option runs out. That part is called implied volatility. Think of it as the movement rate baked into the price.
• Strike and chain. Every option has a strike, the share price it is set against. The chain is the full list of options listed on that stock.
• The curve. One dot for each expiry date the stock has listed options for. Each dot sits at the implied volatility of options struck right at the current share price. Higher on the curve means the market is charging more for movement out to that date.
• What the numbers are. Each reading is a percentage, quoted as a yearly rate. A reading of 30% is a movement rate of about 30% a year for that date.
• How old the numbers are. These are option prices from the end of the last trading day, not live prices. They do not move during the day. The header stamps the trading day it observed.
• What you can read off it. Whether near dates or far dates are priced higher today, at a glance.
• What it is not. It is a price list, not a view on what the stock will do. Read it the way you would read insurance quotes for different lengths of cover.
• Whose figure it is. The market sets these prices. Ohey observes and records them from the nightly capture. What the data carries: The curve prices the size of a possible move. It carries no view on direction. Key difference: this pane is one number per date. Volatility Surface is a grid across dates and strikes.

What it shows

The pane is one curve, plus a summary line and up to two chips in the header.

• The bottom axis. The expiry dates. Near dates are spread further apart than far ones, so the early part of the curve stays readable. The spacing uses the square root of days to expiry.
• The side axis. Implied volatility for that date, marked in percent. It is read off options struck at about the current share price, which is called at-the-money.
• The line. A smoothed curve with a soft fill beneath it.
• Hover. Point at a dot for the exact expiry date, its days to expiry, and its at-the-money implied volatility.
• Near-month chip. The reading for the listed expiry closest to 30 days out. It prints as a percentage, like the curve: "near month priced at 31.4%".
• Skew chip. Options that pay off if the share falls are usually priced higher than options struck near today's share price. This chip prints the size of that gap, in the same percentage points as the curve. It compares strikes about 10% below the share price against the middle of the chain, and it prints like "downside strikes +4.2 points vs the middle". It is blank when the stock has no listed options at the prices we need for that comparison.
• Summary line. One plain sentence on the shape of the curve, plus the trading day we observed. It reads "near dates priced below far dates", "near dates priced above far dates", or "priced about evenly across dates".

The table under the curve

Added 2026-09-16, so the exact points the curve is drawn through also sit in a plain list, one row per listed expiry, nearest first. Hovering a row lights the matching point above it.

• Expiry. The listed expiry date for that row.
• Days. How many days remain until that date.
• ATM IV. At the money implied volatility, annualized: the same reading the curve draws for that date, quoted as a yearly percentage. No bar sits behind the level. On most names the dates sit within a few points of each other. A bar measured against the highest date would print every row as nearly full.

Play forward

A strip under the summary line moves the pane to a later date. Every options pane that shows the chain moves with it.

• The line under the strip. Two readings, both restated from last night's quotes. The forward volatility from the first expiry still open to the next one, named rich, cheap or level against that front month. And the move option prices carry to the chosen date, one leg down and one leg up.
• What forward volatility is. The volatility the quotes price for the stretch between the two dates alone. Take the later date's implied variance to its expiry, less the earlier one's, over the days between.
• The words. Rich is more than 5 percent above the front's own reading. Cheap is more than 5 percent below it. Level is anything between.
• The priced move. Read between two expiries by interpolating the variance the quotes carry, the same method Priced Range uses for its fan.
• At today. No second line, and the curve is unchanged.

Using it for a decision:

• Timing a calendar spread. A long calendar spread sells the nearer expiry and buys the later one. When the stretch between them reads cheap, the later month costs less for the time it adds.
• Reading a date the chain has no dot for. The curve only draws listed expiries. The priced move line answers for any date up to the last one, not only the listed ones. It is arithmetic on last night's quotes, not a forecast of volatility.

Reading it well

1. It is a price schedule for time. It states what the market charges for movement at each date. It says nothing about what the share actually does between now and then.
2. The shape of the curve. The pattern of prices across dates is called the term structure. Near dates can be priced above far dates, or below them. Either way it is a fact about today's prices, not a signal to act on.
3. The skew chip is a pricing fact. It says whether strikes below the share price are priced above the middle of the chain. That gap is routine in how options are priced. On its own it says nothing about where the share is headed.
4. Pair it with two other panes. Volatility Surface shows the same picture by strike as well as by date. Priced Range turns these prices into move sizes in dollars. Two common misreadings.
5. "A rising curve means a big move is coming." No. The curve is a price. It is not a statement about the future and not a probability. Read it as what movement is priced at today.
6. "The skew chip is bullish or bearish." No. It describes how the market prices strikes below the share price against the middle of the chain today. It carries no view on direction. Everything on this pane is market data captured from the previous trading day's option chain. The capture is taken after that trading day closes. It is what the market showed, not our models' output. The published books do not include single-name options.

Frequently asked questions

What is implied volatility? It is the movement rate baked into an option's market price, shown as a yearly percentage. It is a price the market sets today, like an insurance quote. It is not a measurement of what a stock will do. Does a rising curve mean a big move is coming? No. The curve shows what the market charges for movement at each expiry date. That is a price list, not a probability and not a forecast. What does the skew chip tell me? It prints the gap in implied volatility between strikes about 10% below the share price and the middle of the chain. The gap is stated in percentage points. It is routine across most stocks. On its own it says nothing about which way the stock is headed. Are these live prices? No. They are the previous trading day's option chain, captured after that trading day closed. Nothing here updates during the trading day. We do not hold it back by plan, so free and paid accounts see the same capture. Can I use this curve to guess direction? No. Implied volatility prices the size of a possible move, not its direction. This pane carries no forecast of any kind. How is this different from Volatility Surface? This pane shows one number per expiry date, taken at the current share price only. Volatility Surface opens that out into a full grid across strikes and dates. That shows you pricing away from the current share price too. Why does the pane only show listed expiry dates? Because it restates real market quotes and models nothing. Only dates with real listed options have a real price to show.

Related panes

• Reading The Options Suite. Start here. It explains the words, where the data comes from, and the rules we follow on every options pane.
• Volatility Surface. The same implied volatility pricing spread across strikes as well as expiry dates, drawn as a heat map.
• Priced Range. What these implied volatility prices work out to as dollar move sizes, per expiry date.
• Volatility History. How this stock's own implied volatility compares with its multi-year history.