Volatility Surface

Option pricing for one linked stock, drawn as a colour map. It covers the dates its options run out on, at set prices above and below the share price. Those dates and prices are the ones our nightly capture held. This is market data we observe, not model output. Every plan sees the same numbers, because we do not hold public market data back. It is not built from Ohey's own model, unlike the signals screens that show our own model output. See Reading The Options Suite for how to read it.

At a glance

• An option contract. It gives someone the right to buy or sell a stock at a set price, up to a set date. That set price is called the strike.
• The option chain. The full list of option contracts listed on this stock. This map is drawn from that list and nothing else.
• Implied volatility. The amount of share price movement built into an option's price today, quoted as a percentage per year. A higher reading means the market is charging more for movement.
• The number behind each square. A percentage, read as a yearly rate. A square reading 30% means options struck there are priced for movement of about 30% a year. It is not the odds of anything, and it is not a move the share has to make by that date.
• What the map shows. A coloured square wherever the capture held strikes in that band, for that expiry date. Warmer squares are where the market charges more for movement.
• How far it reaches. Strikes from about 18% below the share price to about 18% above, and the expiry dates the capture held. Strikes further out are not on the map.
• A way to picture it. Think of a thermometer reading rather than a weather forecast. It shows what the whole chain is priced at today.
• Where the colours come from. This one stock's own captured chain, and nothing else. The scale runs from its lowest square to its highest.
• Where the numbers come from. The option chain from the previous trading day, copied overnight.
• What it cannot tell you. It covers one stock only. Each map is scaled to its own high and low reading. The same colour on two stocks means two different levels. Key difference: warm means priced higher inside this one stock's own chain. It does not mean the share price is heading up.

What it shows

A grid of coloured squares, with a legend in the header.

Each row covers a band of strike prices, not a single one. A square averages the implied volatility of the strikes that fall in that band, for that column's expiry date. The legend applies to this capture of this stock only. Hover a square and the exact figures for it appear.

Lowest cell and highest cell. Added 2026-09-16. Under the map, two lines name the two ends of the colour scale without needing a hover. The lowest priced square and the highest priced square, each with the expiry and the distance from the share price it sits at. This is the same legend the header states, printed as plain lines too.

Play forward

A strip under the header moves the pane to a later date. Every options pane that shows the chain moves with it.

• On the map. The expiry columns on or before the date fade, and a solid rule marks where the date falls. The colour scale stays today's.
• The line under the strip. The at the money implied volatility read on that date, and the forward volatility from the first expiry still open to the next one.
• How the date is read. Total variance, the volatility squared times the time, drawn as a straight line in days between the two expiries around the date.
• Rich, cheap or level. The forward volatility against the front expiry's own reading, with a 5 percent band either way.
• At today. No rule, no fading, and the pane is unchanged.

Using it for a decision:

• Timing a calendar spread. Step to the date a nearer option would be sold. A later month that reads cheap costs less for the time it adds.
• Choosing an expiry. Columns that stay warm after the rule are the dates the market still prices more movement into.

Reading it well

1. The colours compare this stock with itself, and only today. A warm square says that pocket of the chain is priced above the rest of this stock's own map right now. That is the whole of what it says.
2. Read the shape, not one square. Where the warm and cool areas sit is the point of this pane. They may run down a date column, along a strike row, or on a diagonal. That pattern describes today's pricing across the whole chain. One warm square on its own means little.
3. Start at the dashed line. It marks the strike closest to today's share price. Read outward from it in either direction. That shows how pricing changes as strikes move further from the share price.
4. Pair it with the other two pricing panes. Each one cuts the same data a different way.

Common misreadings

• "The warm corner shows where the price is headed." No. It shows where this stock's options are quoted higher today. It describes current pricing and carries no view on direction.
• "I can compare the colours on two different stocks." No. Each map is scaled to its own lowest and highest reading, stated in its own legend. The same shade on two stocks can mean two different levels. Everything on this pane is market data from the previous trading day's option chain. Nothing here is a forecast. The portfolio Ohey publishes never holds options on a single company. That includes the ones shown on this map.

Frequently asked questions

What does a warm square actually mean? The market is charging more for movement at that strike and that date. It is measured against the rest of this stock's own chain today. It is a pricing observation, with no view on direction attached. Can I compare the colours between two different stocks? No. Each stock's map is scaled to its own high and low reading for that capture. The legend states both. The same shade of orange on two stocks can stand for two different levels. What is the difference between this pane and Volatility Weather? Volatility Weather shows one number per expiry date, at the money only. This pane shows a number for every captured strike band and expiry date. So it also shows how pricing changes away from the share price. Does the shape of the map tell me what the stock will do? No. It describes how the options market is pricing this stock today, across strikes and dates. It is a snapshot of market prices only. Why is one row marked with a dashed line? That row holds the strike closest to today's share price. It is the reference point for reading the rest of the map. How old are these numbers? They come from the last trading day that finished. We copy the chain after that day's close, so on a Monday the numbers are normally Friday's. They do not change while the market is open. The header chip states how many expiry dates that capture held for this stock.

Related panes

• Reading The Options Suite is the shared primer. It covers three things:
  • The words. What strike, expiry, chain and implied volatility mean.
  • The coverage. Which stocks the nightly capture holds, and how fresh it is.
  • The rules. The four rules every options pane follows.
• Volatility Weather shows the same pricing as one at the money curve across expiry dates.
• Volatility Smile pulls one expiry date out of this map, as a curve with plain number readouts.
• Priced Range turns this pricing into dollar move sizes, one per expiry date.