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Market Conditions
Figures as of 25 Sep 2026
On 25 Sep 2026, 1 of 6 recession watch indicators sat at a pre-recession level. A pre-recession level is a documented threshold measured against the twelve months before past recessions.
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Market Conditions
1 of 6 recession watch indicators sit at a pre-recession level as of 25 Sep 2026.
| Indicator | Latest reading | As of | At a pre-recession level |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 year less 3 month | 0.96 | 28 Sep | No |
| Sahm rule | -0.07 | 2026-08 | No |
| High yield spread | 2.93 | 25 Sep | No |
| Jobless claims above 52 week low | 1.63% | 19 Sep | No |
| Building permits, year on year | 4.16% | 2026-08 | No |
| Industrial production, year on year | 1.42% | 2026-08 | Yes |
The curve model puts the odds of a recession by 2027-08 at 15 in 100.
Recession watch as of 25 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.
Open Market Conditions in RingMasterThe Market Conditions guide
Questions
- What does a pre-recession level mean?
- It means an indicator sits at or past the middle reading of the twelve months before past recessions, a measured comparison.
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Membership gets tonight's signals the night they publish. Free gets every options screen, never delayed, and the signals one trading day behind.