Index

Nasdaq 100 index (NDX) options and signal

Figures as of 28 Sep 2026

NDX is the Nasdaq 100 index. The options figures are from the close on 28 Sep 2026. The model's figures are from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind the latest, as the Free plan shows them. Every model figure is paper trading.

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At a glance

Figure	Value	Date
Trade Card	Put credit spread, 23 Oct	25 Sep
IV rank	51 of 100	28 Sep
At the money IV	18.1%	28 Sep
Priced move to 28 Oct	6.1% down, 5.0% up	28 Sep
Call wall and put wall	30,400 and 30,200	28 Sep
Index level at the close	30,276.81	28 Sep

Trade Cards

On 25 Sep 2026 the Trade Card for QQQ was a put credit spread expiring 23 Oct 2026, paper trading.

Figure	Value
Model signal on QQQ	Bullish signal
Scored through	QQQ, the fund that tracks the Nasdaq 100
Strategy	Put credit spread, credit
Legs	Sell the 716 put, Buy the 620 put
Expiry	23 Oct 2026, 28 days to expiry
Limit	A credit of at least $4.80
Probability of profit	75%, the option market's odds at expiry, from delta
Max loss	$9,120 per contract
Max profit	$480 per contract
Breakeven	711.20

Probability of profit is the option market's own odds from delta, not the model's.

Priced on the option chain at the close on 25 Sep 2026.

The index contract is chosen by the desk's index rule, never by the signal.

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Options Snapshot

NDX's IV rank is 51 of 100 on 28 Sep 2026.

Figure	Value
IV rank	51 of 100
At the money IV	18.1%, near month, 30 days
Put/call ratio, open interest	1.42
Call open interest, strikes captured near the price	5,460 contracts
Put open interest, strikes captured near the price	7,760 contracts
Cost to trade at the money	Tight, 3.0% of the option's mid price

IV rank is where the at the money IV sits among NDX's own weekly readings, 0 the lowest and 100 the highest.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Priced Range

On 28 Sep 2026, NDX options priced a move of 6.1 percent down and 5.0 percent up by 28 Oct 2026.

Expiry	Days	Down	Up	Range
29 Sep 2026	1	1.6%	1.1%	29,794.81 to 30,610.81
1 Oct 2026	3	2.3%	1.9%	29,578.81 to 30,854.81
5 Oct 2026	7	3.0%	2.2%	29,364.81 to 30,940.81
7 Oct 2026	9	3.5%	2.6%	29,206.81 to 31,061.81
9 Oct 2026	11	3.9%	2.9%	29,086.81 to 31,148.81
28 Oct 2026	30	6.1%	5.0%	28,416.81 to 31,776.81
31 Dec 2026	94	10.8%	10.8%	27,016.81 to 33,556.81

The range is one standard deviation either side of the close of 30,276.81, as the option prices imply it.

A priced move restates option prices at the close and says nothing certain about where the price goes.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Gamma Map

On 28 Sep 2026, NDX's call wall is the 30,400 strike and its put wall is the 30,200 strike.

Figure	Value
Call wall, most open call gamma	30,400
Put wall, most open put gamma	30,200
Net dollar gamma, calls minus puts	$76.39 million
Total dollar gamma, both sides	$3.36 billion
Close	30,276.81

Dollar gamma is stated for a one percent move in the price.

Net is calls minus puts under the standard convention, not a record of who holds the contracts.

Net gamma changes sign at 7 strikes, so no single flip strike is named.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Volatility History

On 28 Sep 2026, NDX's at the money IV is 18.1 percent against 20 day realized volatility of 16.2 percent.

Figure	Value
At the money IV	18.1%
Realized volatility, 20 trading days	16.2%
Realized volatility, 60 trading days	19.4%
IV against its own weekly record	In the middle
Weekly readings on record	842, from 8 Jan 2010
Weeks the price moved more than the one week priced move	33.0% of 230 weeks

Realized volatility is worked out from the daily closes the desk holds, not from the option chain.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Volatility Weather

On 28 Sep 2026, NDX's at the money IV runs from 12.9 percent at 1 day to 21.0 percent at 94 days.

Days to expiry	At the money IV
1	12.9%
2	15.6%
4	18.5%
8	17.5%
9	18.0%
11	16.9%
30	18.1%
94	21.0%

Far expiries price more volatility than near ones, an upward sloping term structure.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Volatility Smile

On 28 Sep 2026, at the 30 day expiry, NDX's IV ten percent below the price sits 7.5 points above at the money IV.

Strike area	Implied volatility	Against at the money
10% below the price	25.6%	+7.5 points
At the money	18.1%	0.0 points
10% above the price	18.0%	-0.1 points

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Volatility Surface

On 28 Sep 2026, NDX's surface spans 13 expiries out to 94 days, with IV from 15.0 to 55.8 percent near the price.

Figure	Value
Expiries captured	13
Nearest expiry	29 Sep 2026, 1 day
Farthest expiry	31 Dec 2026, 94 days
Points within 10% of the price, 7 days out or more	563
Lowest IV among them	15.0%
Highest IV among them	55.8%

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Expiry Ladder

On 28 Sep 2026, NDX has 13 captured expiries, from 29 Sep 2026 to 31 Dec 2026.

Expiry	Days	At the money IV	Call open interest	Put open interest
29 Sep 2026	1	12.9%	367	340
30 Sep 2026	2	15.6%	1,069	982
1 Oct 2026	3	17.7%	332	665
5 Oct 2026	7	17.1%	334	449
6 Oct 2026	8	17.5%	225	180
7 Oct 2026	9	18.0%	322	196
9 Oct 2026	11	16.9%	572	556
12 Oct 2026	14	17.3%	211	145
28 Oct 2026	30	18.1%	140	24
31 Dec 2026	94	21.0%	696	568

Open interest is summed over the strikes captured near the price on each expiry.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Strike Table

On 28 Sep 2026, NDX's largest open interest sits at the 30,200 strike, with 1,569 contracts across the captured expiries.

Strike	Call open interest	Put open interest	Total
30,200	184	1,385	1,569
29,200	18	1,366	1,384
30,400	294	74	368
30,500	167	140	307
28,500	36	270	306
29,900	249	52	301

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Since Yesterday

From 25 Sep 2026 to 28 Sep 2026, NDX's at the money IV moved from 18.4 percent to 18.1 percent.

Figure	25 Sep	28 Sep	Change
At the money IV	18.4%	18.1%	-0.4 points
Open interest, strikes captured near the price	10,985	13,219	+2,234
Put/call ratio, open interest	1.14	1.42	+0.28

Open interest changes cannot identify buyers or sellers.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Changed Hands

On 28 Sep 2026, 40,720 NDX option contracts traded, 1.0 times its own recent average.

Figure	Value
Calls traded	15,472
Puts traded	25,248
Against its recent average	1.0 times
Open interest, whole chain	152,990 contracts
Volume to open interest	0.27
Unusual volume flag	No

Traded volume and open interest are shown side by side and never combined. Open interest changes cannot identify buyers or sellers.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Positioning Replay

The replay holds 2 trading days of NDX's option positioning, from 25 Sep 2026 to 28 Sep 2026.

Date	Close	Net dollar gamma	Top call strike	Top put strike
25 Sep 2026	30,608.13	$518.96 million	30,400	30,500
28 Sep 2026	30,276.81	$76.39 million	30,400	30,200

Each frame restates one nightly capture. Net is calls minus puts, a convention, not who holds the contracts.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Price Chart

NDX closed at 30,276.81 on 28 Sep 2026.

Figure	Value
Last close	30,276.81
Change over 5 trading days	-0.7%
Change over 21 trading days	+2.1%
Change over 63 trading days	+1.7%
Change over 252 trading days	+24.1%
52 week high	30,770.63
52 week low	22,841.42
20 day moving average	29,662.76
50 day moving average	29,321.03
200 day moving average	27,376.86
RSI, 14 days	58

Worked out from the desk's own daily bars.

From the daily bars through 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Questions

What is NDX's IV rank?: NDX's IV rank is 51 of 100 on 28 Sep 2026.
What move are NDX options pricing?: On 28 Sep 2026, NDX options priced a move of 6.1 percent down and 5.0 percent up by 28 Oct 2026.
Where are NDX's call wall and put wall?: On 28 Sep 2026, NDX's call wall is the 30,400 strike and its put wall is the 30,200 strike.
What was the latest Trade Card for NDX on the Free plan?: On 25 Sep 2026 the Trade Card for QQQ was a put credit spread expiring 23 Oct 2026, paper trading.

The same index

QQQ, Invesco QQQ Trust (Nasdaq 100)

The indexes

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