Watchlist

This pane holds the names a reader starred, one card each, saved to the account. Every other pane shows the model's picks. This one shows the reader's own. Every figure on a card comes from tonight's model file, the options capture or the price chart. On the free plan the model figures are the previous trading day's. See Rank Not Return for the delay rule. Open the watchlist

At a glance

• The ring. The measured probability on a circle of 100. The tick marks the figure for any stock. The coloured arc past the tick is the edge.
• Signal, outlook or no edge. A signal passes the trade rule and has a Trade Card. An outlook is a smaller measured edge with no trade. No edge is no better than any stock. The confidence word sits beside it.
• The strip. One cell per trading day, tonight on the right. Green is a bullish signal, red a bearish one, grey none. The count beside it is how many trading days in a row the signal has held.
• The chips. What changed since the prior trading day. The probability moving, the signal switching, or a rank moving 5 places or more.
• Price and rank. The closing price over 20 trading days, and the 45, 20 and 10 trading day ranks, tonight against the prior trading day.
• The figures. IV rank, the priced move, options volume against its own average, the model's expected move, pullback risk and volatility outlook, and the next earnings date.
• Alerts. The few facts a trader acts on, each with its figure.
• What is saved. The symbol, the date it was starred, and any note. Nothing else.
• Key difference. The probability is measured on past trading days. The expected move, pullback risk and volatility outlook are secondary signals over the next 20 trading days.

What it shows

Confidence, in full. High is a signal in the strongest 1 percent band. Medium is a signal in the 2 or 5 percent band. Low is an outlook that beat any stock by 2 points or more in 4 of 5 years. No edge is anything less.

The signal rule. A name in the top or bottom 5 percent at 45 trading days, or the top or bottom 2 percent at 20. Realised volatility must also be over 25 percent a year. The 10 trading day rank failed its own holdout. It is shown for context and never decides anything.

The alerts. Each one is a fact with its figure, never an instruction:

• Signal on or off. Tonight's signal is new, or the prior trading day's signal is gone.
• Earnings soon. A report inside the next 10 trading days.
• Options volume. Tonight's volume at twice the name's own average or more.
• IV rank. At 90 or more, or 10 or less.

A name the ranking does not hold says so in words, and its price line and option figures still show. An index fund says it is scored beside the ranking and carries no measured signal.

Adding and removing names

• The star. The same star sits on every row of the scan, the Bearish List and the other lists. A click adds the name to the active list.
• The star's menu. A right click or a shift click opens a picker that files the name into any list.
• Type a symbol. The field at the foot of the pane takes any ticker.
• The ×. Removes the name from the list. Delete or Backspace does the same with the card focused.
• Click a card to link the whole desk to that stock.

A note on a name

Every watched name can carry one short private line, written in the phone app. It is for why the name was starred. It is about 140 characters. No part of the ranking ever reads it, and deleting a list deletes its notes.

Sorting

Reading it on a live desk

1. Start with the alerts. A signal switching on or off is the one change that alters the signal.
2. Read the ring beside its tick. 60 against 56 is a 4 point edge. The same 60 against 60 would be none.
3. Check how long it has held. A signal on its first day and one held for two weeks carry the same probability. The count says which is which.
4. Check the earnings date before an option trade. A report inside the expiry changes what the priced move carries.
5. Link the card. Rank by Timeframe and Timeframe Agreement then draw the same name in full.

Frequently asked questions

Where did the steadiness word go? Words like "Rock steady" and "Drifting" read how much a rank had moved. They were never checked against what happened next, and they read the strongest names wrongly. The card now shows how many trading days the signal has held, which is a count. What is the difference between a signal and an outlook? Both are the model's side on a name, measured against any stock. A signal also passes the trade rule, so Trade Cards has a trade for it. An outlook is a smaller measured edge, with no trade. A bearish signal might read 55 in 100 against 44 for any stock, and a bearish outlook 47 against 44. No edge means the slice has done no better than any stock. Why does SPX show no probability? SPX has no rank or options of its own here, so it is read through SPY, the fund that holds the index. The row shows the model's side on SPY and its rank at 45 trading days. The probability is SPY's own record, never a stock's. It prints once that record holds ten separate 45 trading day stretches on that side, and says not measured yet until then. NDX is read through QQQ the same way. Why can a name read 59 and still say no edge? Because any stock read 59 or near it too. The edge is the gap, not the figure. What does "not in today's ranking" mean? The nightly ranking covers about a thousand names, and this one was not among them. Missing does not mean bad. Can there be more than one watchlist? Yes. The switcher at the top creates, renames, switches and deletes lists. Is the list private? Yes. Only the account holder sees what is on it. The figures on it are the same for every reader.

Related panes

• Rank by Timeframe draws one name's three ranks from an earlier trading day to tonight.
• Timeframe Agreement draws whether the 45 and 20 trading day ranks agree, day by day.
• Bearish List is the bearish side of the whole ranking.
• Read-out says the same read about one name in words.