Energy
Antero Resources Corporation (AR) options and signal
Figures as of 28 Sep 2026
AR is Antero Resources Corporation, an Energy name the model ranks every trading day. The options figures are from the close on 28 Sep 2026. The model's figures are from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind the latest, as the Free plan shows them. Every model figure is paper trading.
Membership gets tonight's signals the night they publish. Free gets every options screen, never delayed, and the signals one trading day behind.
At a glance
| Figure | Value | Date |
|---|---|---|
| Trade Card | Bear put spread, 20 Nov | 25 Sep |
| IV rank | 39 of 100 | 28 Sep |
| At the money IV | 43.2% | 28 Sep |
| Priced move to 30 Oct | 11.6% down, 14.9% up | 28 Sep |
| Call wall and put wall | 40 and 35 | 28 Sep |
| Signal and the desk's view | Bearish signal, view bearish | 25 Sep |
| Last close | 34.34 | 28 Sep |
| Next report | 28 Oct 2026 | 28 Sep |
Trade Cards
On 25 Sep 2026 the Trade Card for AR was a bear put spread expiring 20 Nov 2026, paper trading.
| Figure | Value |
|---|---|
| Signal | Bearish, over 20 trading days |
| Strategy | Bear put spread, debit |
| Legs | Buy the 35 put, Sell the 31 put |
| Expiry | 20 Nov 2026, 56 days to expiry |
| Limit | A debit of at most $1.40 |
| Probability of profit | 41%, the option market's odds at expiry, from delta |
| Max loss | $140 per contract |
| Max profit | $260 per contract |
| Breakeven | 33.60 |
| IV rank at that expiry | 29 of 100 |
Probability of profit is the option market's own odds from delta, not the model's.
Priced on the option chain at the close on 25 Sep 2026.
Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.
Options Snapshot
AR's IV rank is 39 of 100 on 28 Sep 2026.
| Figure | Value |
|---|---|
| IV rank | 39 of 100 |
| At the money IV | 43.2%, near month, 32 days |
| Put/call ratio, open interest | 0.61 |
| Call open interest, strikes captured near the price | 39,900 contracts |
| Put open interest, strikes captured near the price | 24,400 contracts |
| Cost to trade at the money | Fair, 33.7% of the option's mid price |
IV rank is where the at the money IV sits among AR's own weekly readings, 0 the lowest and 100 the highest.
From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.
Open Options Snapshot in RingMasterThe Options Snapshot guide
Priced Range
On 28 Sep 2026, AR options priced a move of 11.6 percent down and 14.9 percent up by 30 Oct 2026.
| Expiry | Days | Down | Up | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | 4 | 6.0% | 4.8% | 32.28 to 36.00 |
| 9 Oct 2026 | 11 | 6.6% | 7.8% | 32.09 to 37.02 |
| 16 Oct 2026 | 18 | 8.3% | 9.1% | 31.48 to 37.48 |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 32 | 11.6% | 14.9% | 30.36 to 39.47 |
| 6 Nov 2026 | 39 | 13.9% | 14.6% | 29.55 to 39.36 |
| 20 Nov 2026 | 53 | 15.1% | 16.5% | 29.14 to 40.01 |
| 19 Feb 2027 | 144 | 24.8% | 29.7% | 25.84 to 44.54 |
The range is one standard deviation either side of the close of 34.34, as the option prices imply it.
A priced move restates option prices at the close and says nothing certain about where the price goes.
From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.
Gamma Map
On 28 Sep 2026, AR's call wall is the 40 strike and its put wall is the 35 strike.
| Figure | Value |
|---|---|
| Call wall, most open call gamma | 40 |
| Put wall, most open put gamma | 35 |
| Net dollar gamma, calls minus puts | $297,198 |
| Total dollar gamma, both sides | $3.91 million |
| Close | 34.34 |
Dollar gamma is stated for a one percent move in the price.
Net is calls minus puts under the standard convention, not a record of who holds the contracts.
Net gamma changes sign at 6 strikes, so no single flip strike is named.
From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.
Volatility History
On 28 Sep 2026, AR's at the money IV is 43.2 percent against 20 day realized volatility of 40.9 percent.
| Figure | Value |
|---|---|
| At the money IV | 43.2% |
| Realized volatility, 20 trading days | 40.9% |
| Realized volatility, 60 trading days | 36.9% |
| IV against its own weekly record | In the middle |
| Weekly readings on record | 650, from 1 Nov 2013 |
| Weeks the price moved more than the one week priced move | 27.1% of 236 weeks |
Realized volatility is worked out from the daily closes the desk holds, not from the option chain.
From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.
Open Volatility History in RingMasterThe Volatility History guide
Volatility Weather
On 28 Sep 2026, AR's at the money IV runs from 46.9 percent at 4 days to 42.1 percent at 144 days.
| Days to expiry | At the money IV |
|---|---|
| 4 | 46.9% |
| 11 | 36.9% |
| 18 | 40.4% |
| 25 | 37.2% |
| 32 | 43.2% |
| 39 | 42.7% |
| 53 | 42.4% |
| 144 | 42.1% |
Near expiries price more volatility than far ones, an inverted term structure.
From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.
Open Volatility Weather in RingMasterThe Volatility Weather guide
Volatility Smile
On 28 Sep 2026, at the 32 day expiry, AR's IV ten percent below the price sits 2.8 points below at the money IV.
| Strike area | Implied volatility | Against at the money |
|---|---|---|
| 10% below the price | 40.4% | -2.8 points |
| At the money | 43.2% | 0.0 points |
| 10% above the price | 50.3% | +7.0 points |
From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.
Open Volatility Smile in RingMasterThe Volatility Smile guide
Volatility Surface
On 28 Sep 2026, AR's surface spans 9 expiries out to 144 days, with IV from 36.1 to 69.9 percent near the price.
| Figure | Value |
|---|---|
| Expiries captured | 9 |
| Nearest expiry | 2 Oct 2026, 4 days |
| Farthest expiry | 19 Feb 2027, 144 days |
| Points within 10% of the price, 7 days out or more | 60 |
| Lowest IV among them | 36.1% |
| Highest IV among them | 69.9% |
From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.
Open Volatility Surface in RingMasterThe Volatility Surface guide
Expiry Ladder
On 28 Sep 2026, AR has 9 captured expiries, from 2 Oct 2026 to 19 Feb 2027.
| Expiry | Days | At the money IV | Call open interest | Put open interest |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | 4 | 46.9% | 1,689 | 982 |
| 9 Oct 2026 | 11 | 36.9% | 245 | 275 |
| 16 Oct 2026 | 18 | 40.4% | 4,181 | 2,755 |
| 23 Oct 2026 | 25 | 37.2% | 237 | 167 |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 32 | 43.2% | 552 | 171 |
| 6 Nov 2026 | 39 | 42.7% | 40 | 13 |
| 20 Nov 2026 | 53 | 42.4% | 7,111 | 4,831 |
| 15 Jan 2027 | 109 | 39.7% | 23,924 | 14,586 |
| 19 Feb 2027 | 144 | 42.1% | 1,928 | 614 |
Open interest is summed over the strikes captured near the price on each expiry.
From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.
Strike Table
On 28 Sep 2026, AR's largest open interest sits at the 40 strike, with 8,537 contracts across the captured expiries.
| Strike | Call open interest | Put open interest | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | 6,287 | 2,250 | 8,537 |
| 35 | 3,723 | 4,103 | 7,826 |
| 45 | 4,925 | 249 | 5,174 |
| 30 | 2,451 | 2,700 | 5,151 |
| 32 | 950 | 2,494 | 3,444 |
| 36 | 1,154 | 1,799 | 2,953 |
From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.
Since Yesterday
From 25 Sep 2026 to 28 Sep 2026, AR's at the money IV moved from 39.4 percent to 43.2 percent.
| Figure | 25 Sep | 28 Sep | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| At the money IV | 39.4% | 43.2% | +3.8 points |
| Open interest, strikes captured near the price | 64,035 | 64,301 | +266 |
| Put/call ratio, open interest | 0.64 | 0.61 | -0.03 |
Open interest changes cannot identify buyers or sellers.
From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.
Changed Hands
On 28 Sep 2026, 4,401 AR option contracts traded, 0.7 times its own recent average.
| Figure | Value |
|---|---|
| Calls traded | 2,790 |
| Puts traded | 1,611 |
| Against its recent average | 0.7 times |
| Busier than | 10 of its last 20 trading days |
| Open interest, whole chain | 67,870 contracts |
| Volume to open interest | 0.06 |
| Unusual volume flag | No |
Traded volume and open interest are shown side by side and never combined. Open interest changes cannot identify buyers or sellers.
From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.
Positioning Replay
The replay holds 33 trading days of AR's option positioning, from 11 Aug 2026 to 28 Sep 2026.
| Date | Close | Net dollar gamma | Top call strike | Top put strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Aug 2026 | 37.83 | $2.81 million | 37 | 36 |
| 21 Sep 2026 | 33.96 | minus $514,194 | 40 | 35 |
| 28 Sep 2026 | 34.34 | $297,198 | 40 | 35 |
Each frame restates one nightly capture. Net is calls minus puts, a convention, not who holds the contracts.
From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.
Open Positioning Replay in RingMasterThe Positioning Replay guide
Read-out
On 25 Sep 2026 the desk's view of AR was bearish, paper trading.
| Figure | Value |
|---|---|
| Side | Bearish at 20 trading days, signal on |
| Level above the close | 36.52, the swing high of 24 Sep 2026, a close past it runs against the view |
| Level below the close | 33.56, the swing low of 22 Sep 2026 |
| The chart | Sits with the view |
| Strategy family | Bear put spread (buy a put spread) |
| Price target | None. The desk has no price model. |
The levels are prices the shares turned at on the chart, with the date of each.
Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.
Rank by Timeframe
On 25 Sep 2026 AR sat at the 1st percentile of the model's 45 trading day ranking, paper trading.
| Timeframe | Percentile | Side |
|---|---|---|
| 10 trading days | 1 of 100 | Bearish |
| 20 trading days | 1 of 100 | Bearish |
| 45 trading days | 1 of 100 | Bearish |
100 is the top of the ranking. A name in the middle three fifths is neutral.
Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.
Open Rank by Timeframe in RingMasterThe Rank by Timeframe guide
Timeframe Agreement
On 25 Sep 2026, 3 of 3 timeframes put AR on the bearish side, paper trading.
| Group | Timeframes | Side | On that side |
|---|---|---|---|
| Near | 10 day, 20 day | Bearish | 2 of 2 |
| Long | 45 day | Bearish | 1 of 1 |
Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.
Open Timeframe Agreement in RingMasterThe Timeframe Agreement guide
Signal History
On 25 Sep 2026 AR's bearish signal began that trading day, paper trading.
| Trading day | Signal | 45 day percentile |
|---|---|---|
| 25 Sep 2026 | Bearish | 1 of 100 |
| 24 Sep 2026 | None | 9 of 100 |
| 23 Sep 2026 | None | 25 of 100 |
| 22 Sep 2026 | None | 32 of 100 |
| 21 Sep 2026 | None | 36 of 100 |
| 18 Sep 2026 | None | 38 of 100 |
| 17 Sep 2026 | None | 11 of 100 |
| 16 Sep 2026 | None | 7 of 100 |
Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.
Sector Split
On 25 Sep 2026, 17 of 56 Energy names were bullish and 33 were bearish, paper trading.
| Sector | Names | Bullish | Bearish | Neutral |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy | 56 | 17 | 33 | 6 |
Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.
Price Chart
AR closed at 34.34 on 28 Sep 2026.
| Figure | Value |
|---|---|
| Last close | 34.34 |
| Change over 5 trading days | +1.1% |
| Change over 21 trading days | -10.9% |
| Change over 63 trading days | -0.3% |
| Change over 252 trading days | +0.9% |
| 52 week high | 45.75 |
| 52 week low | 29.10 |
| 20 day moving average | 37.26 |
| 50 day moving average | 36.65 |
| 200 day moving average | 36.36 |
| RSI, 14 days | 37 |
Worked out from the desk's own daily bars, adjusted for share splits.
From the daily bars through 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.
Earnings Radar
AR reports next on 28 Oct 2026, a date worked out from past quarters.
| Figure | Value |
|---|---|
| Next report | 28 Oct 2026, after the close |
| Date | Worked out from past quarters |
| Move after the report of 29 Jul 2026 | +0.5% |
| Move after the report of 29 Apr 2026 | +0.6% |
| Move after the report of 11 Feb 2026 | -3.7% |
| Move after the report of 29 Oct 2025 | -5.0% |
Earnings calendar as of 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.
Seasonality
In the 12 Septembers on record, AR's average change was minus 2.0 percent, and it rose in 41.7 percent of them.
| Month | Average change | Middle change | Share of years up | Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| September | -2.0% | -4.5% | 41.7% | 12 |
| October | +1.9% | -2.1% | 41.7% | 12 |
| November | -3.5% | -9.0% | 25.0% | 12 |
Each figure is a month end to month end change in past years. A past month says nothing certain about the next one.
Monthly history through 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.
The Desk Analyst
The Free plan shows the first paragraph of The Desk Analyst's column on AR for 25 Sep 2026, quoted below.
The share price closed at 35, which is 3.8% below the 200-day simple moving average of 36.37.
Other moving averages include the SMA5 at 35.02, SMA20 at 37.47, SMA50 at 36.63, and SMA100 at 36.09.
Paper trading. Column for 25 Sep 2026, general commentary published the same way to every reader.
Open The Desk Analyst in RingMasterThe The Desk Analyst guide
Questions
- What is AR's IV rank?
- AR's IV rank is 39 of 100 on 28 Sep 2026.
- What move are AR options pricing?
- On 28 Sep 2026, AR options priced a move of 11.6 percent down and 14.9 percent up by 30 Oct 2026.
- Where are AR's call wall and put wall?
- On 28 Sep 2026, AR's call wall is the 40 strike and its put wall is the 35 strike.
- What was the latest Trade Card for AR on the Free plan?
- On 25 Sep 2026 the Trade Card for AR was a bear put spread expiring 20 Nov 2026, paper trading.
- When does AR report earnings next?
- AR reports next on 28 Oct 2026, a date worked out from past quarters.
More Energy names
- MTDR, Matador Resources Company
- TTE, TotalEnergies SE
- FANG, Diamondback Energy Inc
- EQNR, Equinor ASA
- MPC, Marathon Petroleum Corp
Guides and the full list
- Every covered stock, fund and index, A to Z
- Reading the options suite
- Options for beginners
- How Trade Cards work
- Words the desk uses
Membership gets tonight's signals the night they publish. Free gets every options screen, never delayed, and the signals one trading day behind.