Industrials

AeroVironment, Inc. (AVAV) options and signal

Figures as of 28 Sep 2026

AVAV is AeroVironment, Inc., an Industrials name the model ranks every trading day. The options figures are from the close on 28 Sep 2026. The model's figures are from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind the latest, as the Free plan shows them. Every model figure is paper trading.

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At a glance

Figure	Value	Date
Trade Card	Iron condor, 30 Oct	25 Sep
IV rank	75 of 100	28 Sep
At the money IV	56.1%	28 Sep
Priced move to 30 Oct	15.7% down, 18.1% up	28 Sep
Call wall and put wall	150 and 140	28 Sep
Signal and the desk's view	No signal, view neutral	25 Sep
Last close	147.23	28 Sep
Next report	2 Dec 2026	28 Sep

Trade Cards

On 25 Sep 2026 the Trade Card for AVAV was an iron condor expiring 30 Oct 2026, paper trading.

Figure	Value
Signal	Neutral
Strategy	Iron condor, credit
Legs	Buy the 110 put, Sell the 120 put, Sell the 195 call, Buy the 210 call
Expiry	30 Oct 2026, 35 days to expiry
Limit	A credit of at least $4.18
Probability of profit	74%, the option market's odds at expiry, from delta
Max loss	$1,082 per contract
Max profit	$418 per contract
Breakeven	115.82 and 199.18
IV rank at that expiry	77 of 100

Probability of profit is the option market's own odds from delta, not the model's.

Priced on the option chain at the close on 25 Sep 2026.

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Options Snapshot

AVAV's IV rank is 75 of 100 on 28 Sep 2026.

Figure	Value
IV rank	75 of 100
At the money IV	56.1%, near month, 32 days
Put/call ratio, open interest	1.06
Call open interest, strikes captured near the price	21,300 contracts
Put open interest, strikes captured near the price	22,500 contracts
Cost to trade at the money	Fair, 30.2% of the option's mid price

IV rank is where the at the money IV sits among AVAV's own weekly readings, 0 the lowest and 100 the highest.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Priced Range

On 28 Sep 2026, AVAV options priced a move of 15.7 percent down and 18.1 percent up by 30 Oct 2026.

Expiry	Days	Down	Up	Range
2 Oct 2026	4	6.0%	6.4%	138.36 to 156.67
9 Oct 2026	11	9.4%	10.2%	133.43 to 162.23
23 Oct 2026	25	14.3%	15.6%	126.23 to 170.23
30 Oct 2026	32	15.7%	18.1%	124.13 to 173.83
20 Nov 2026	53	23.1%	23.6%	113.23 to 181.93
18 Dec 2026	81	29.2%	34.8%	104.23 to 198.53
19 Mar 2027	172	44.4%	47.0%	81.83 to 216.43

The range is one standard deviation either side of the close of 147.23, as the option prices imply it.

A priced move restates option prices at the close and says nothing certain about where the price goes.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Gamma Map

On 28 Sep 2026, AVAV's call wall is the 150 strike and its put wall is the 140 strike.

Figure	Value
Call wall, most open call gamma	150
Put wall, most open put gamma	140
Net dollar gamma, calls minus puts	minus $935,250
Total dollar gamma, both sides	$8.87 million
Close	147.23

Dollar gamma is stated for a one percent move in the price.

Net is calls minus puts under the standard convention, not a record of who holds the contracts.

Net gamma changes sign at 3 strikes, so no single flip strike is named.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Volatility History

On 28 Sep 2026, AVAV's at the money IV is 56.1 percent against 20 day realized volatility of 46.0 percent.

Figure	Value
At the money IV	56.1%
Realized volatility, 20 trading days	46.0%
Realized volatility, 60 trading days	64.5%
IV against its own weekly record	In the middle
Weekly readings on record	842, from 8 Jan 2010
Weeks the price moved more than the one week priced move	26.7% of 236 weeks

Realized volatility is worked out from the daily closes the desk holds, not from the option chain.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Volatility Weather

On 28 Sep 2026, AVAV's at the money IV runs from 56.9 percent at 4 days to 66.3 percent at 172 days.

Days to expiry	At the money IV
4	56.9%
11	56.3%
18	53.2%
25	59.0%
39	56.5%
53	60.6%
81	65.8%
172	66.3%

Far expiries price more volatility than near ones, an upward sloping term structure.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Volatility Smile

On 28 Sep 2026, at the 32 day expiry, AVAV's IV ten percent below the price sits 3.3 points above at the money IV.

Strike area	Implied volatility	Against at the money
10% below the price	59.4%	+3.3 points
At the money	56.1%	0.0 points
10% above the price	54.4%	-1.7 points

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Volatility Surface

On 28 Sep 2026, AVAV's surface spans 10 expiries out to 172 days, with IV from 52.8 to 69.5 percent near the price.

Figure	Value
Expiries captured	10
Nearest expiry	2 Oct 2026, 4 days
Farthest expiry	19 Mar 2027, 172 days
Points within 10% of the price, 7 days out or more	59
Lowest IV among them	52.8%
Highest IV among them	69.5%

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Expiry Ladder

On 28 Sep 2026, AVAV has 10 captured expiries, from 2 Oct 2026 to 19 Mar 2027.

Expiry	Days	At the money IV	Call open interest	Put open interest
2 Oct 2026	4	56.9%	1,143	2,013
9 Oct 2026	11	56.3%	664	591
16 Oct 2026	18	53.2%	4,205	3,570
23 Oct 2026	25	59.0%	772	685
30 Oct 2026	32	56.1%	994	445
6 Nov 2026	39	56.5%	3	15
20 Nov 2026	53	60.6%	1,147	614
18 Dec 2026	81	65.8%	4,444	4,684
15 Jan 2027	109	63.0%	5,779	7,212
19 Mar 2027	172	66.3%	2,129	2,660

Open interest is summed over the strikes captured near the price on each expiry.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Strike Table

On 28 Sep 2026, AVAV's largest open interest sits at the 160 strike, with 3,323 contracts across the captured expiries.

Strike	Call open interest	Put open interest	Total
160	1,943	1,380	3,323
150	1,357	1,881	3,238
140	589	2,275	2,864
155	1,312	1,143	2,455
200	1,976	460	2,436
170	1,554	679	2,233

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Since Yesterday

From 25 Sep 2026 to 28 Sep 2026, AVAV's at the money IV moved from 61.2 percent to 56.1 percent.

Figure	25 Sep	28 Sep	Change
At the money IV	61.2%	56.1%	-5.1 points
Open interest, strikes captured near the price	42,734	43,769	+1,035
Put/call ratio, open interest	0.92	1.06	+0.13

Open interest changes cannot identify buyers or sellers.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Changed Hands

On 28 Sep 2026, 6,960 AVAV option contracts traded, 1.2 times its own recent average.

Figure	Value
Calls traded	3,043
Puts traded	3,917
Against its recent average	1.2 times
Busier than	10 of its last 20 trading days
Open interest, whole chain	50,400 contracts
Volume to open interest	0.14
Unusual volume flag	Yes, 1 contract traded well above open interest
Largest flagged contract	The 135 put expiring 9 Oct, 439 traded against 128 open

Traded volume and open interest are shown side by side and never combined. Open interest changes cannot identify buyers or sellers.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Positioning Replay

The replay holds 33 trading days of AVAV's option positioning, from 11 Aug 2026 to 28 Sep 2026.

Date	Close	Net dollar gamma	Top call strike	Top put strike
11 Aug 2026	196.02	$4.4 million	200	175
21 Sep 2026	160.90	$1.64 million	170	150
28 Sep 2026	147.23	minus $935,250	150	140

Each frame restates one nightly capture. Net is calls minus puts, a convention, not who holds the contracts.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Read-out

On 25 Sep 2026 the desk's view of AVAV was neutral, paper trading.

Figure	Value
Side	Neutral at 45 trading days, no signal
Level above the close	159.24, the swing high of 10 Sep 2026
Level below the close	140.62, the swing low of 3 Sep 2026
Strategy family	Iron condor (sell both sides, defined risk)
Price target	None. The desk has no price model.

The levels are prices the shares turned at on the chart, with the date of each.

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Rank by Timeframe

On 25 Sep 2026 AVAV sat at the 28th percentile of the model's 45 trading day ranking, paper trading.

Timeframe	Percentile	Side
10 trading days	34 of 100	Neutral
20 trading days	15 of 100	Bearish
45 trading days	28 of 100	Neutral

100 is the top of the ranking. A name in the middle three fifths is neutral.

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Timeframe Agreement

On 25 Sep 2026 AVAV's near timeframes were bearish and its long timeframe was neutral, paper trading.

Group	Timeframes	Side	On that side
Near	10 day, 20 day	Bearish	1 of 2
Long	45 day	Neutral	0 of 1

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Signal History

On 25 Sep 2026 AVAV had carried no signal for at least 18 trading days, paper trading.

Trading day	Signal	45 day percentile
25 Sep 2026	None	28 of 100
24 Sep 2026	None	24 of 100
23 Sep 2026	None	14 of 100
22 Sep 2026	None	13 of 100
21 Sep 2026	None	31 of 100
18 Sep 2026	None	26 of 100
17 Sep 2026	None	22 of 100
16 Sep 2026	None	12 of 100

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Sector Split

On 25 Sep 2026, 51 of 147 Industrials names were bullish and 37 were bearish, paper trading.

Sector	Names	Bullish	Bearish	Neutral
Industrials	147	51	37	59

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Price Chart

AVAV closed at 147.23 on 28 Sep 2026.

Figure	Value
Last close	147.23
Change over 5 trading days	-8.5%
Change over 21 trading days	-3.3%
Change over 63 trading days	+5.9%
Change over 252 trading days	-51.2%
52 week high	417.86
52 week low	135.20
20 day moving average	151.71
50 day moving average	158.78
200 day moving average	203.26
RSI, 14 days	42

Worked out from the desk's own daily bars, adjusted for share splits.

From the daily bars through 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Earnings Radar

AVAV reports next on 2 Dec 2026, a date worked out from past quarters.

Figure	Value
Next report	2 Dec 2026
Date	Worked out from past quarters

Earnings calendar as of 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Public Filings

The filings the desk holds carry 1 recent trade in AVAV shares.

Filed	Who	Trade	Size
4 Sep 2026	. Gilbert Cisneros, member of Congress	Sold	$1,001 to $15,000

Every filing is reproduced as filed, and each one reaches the public days or weeks after the trade.

Filings as of 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Seasonality

In the 19 Septembers on record, AVAV's average change was plus 1.7 percent, and it rose in 36.8 percent of them.

Month	Average change	Middle change	Share of years up	Years
September	+1.7%	-1.6%	36.8%	19
October	+6.3%	+7.2%	73.7%	19
November	-1.0%	-6.4%	47.4%	19

Each figure is a month end to month end change in past years. A past month says nothing certain about the next one.

Monthly history through 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Questions

What is AVAV's IV rank?: AVAV's IV rank is 75 of 100 on 28 Sep 2026.
What move are AVAV options pricing?: On 28 Sep 2026, AVAV options priced a move of 15.7 percent down and 18.1 percent up by 30 Oct 2026.
Where are AVAV's call wall and put wall?: On 28 Sep 2026, AVAV's call wall is the 150 strike and its put wall is the 140 strike.
What was the latest Trade Card for AVAV on the Free plan?: On 25 Sep 2026 the Trade Card for AVAV was an iron condor expiring 30 Oct 2026, paper trading.
When does AVAV report earnings next?: AVAV reports next on 2 Dec 2026, a date worked out from past quarters.

More Industrials names

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