Financials

MARA Holdings, Inc. (MARA) options and signal

Figures as of 28 Sep 2026

MARA is MARA Holdings, Inc., a Financials name the model ranks every trading day. The options figures are from the close on 28 Sep 2026. The model's figures are from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind the latest, as the Free plan shows them. Every model figure is paper trading.

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At a glance

FigureValueDate
Trade CardBull call spread, 18 Dec25 Sep
IV rank5 of 10028 Sep
At the money IV79.3%28 Sep
Priced move to 30 Oct22.5% down, 24.0% up28 Sep
Call wall and put wall13 and 12.528 Sep
Signal and the desk's viewNo signal, view bullish25 Sep
Last close12.1128 Sep
Next report4 Nov 202628 Sep

Trade Cards

On 25 Sep 2026 the Trade Card for MARA was a bull call spread expiring 18 Dec 2026, paper trading.

FigureValue
SignalNeutral
StrategyBull call spread, debit
LegsBuy the 13 call, Sell the 18 call
Expiry18 Dec 2026, 84 days to expiry
LimitA debit of at most $1.18
Probability of profit43%, the option market's odds at expiry, from delta
Max loss$118 per contract
Max profit$382 per contract
Breakeven14.18
IV rank at that expiry8 of 100

Probability of profit is the option market's own odds from delta, not the model's.

Priced on the option chain at the close on 25 Sep 2026.

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Options Snapshot

MARA's IV rank is 5 of 100 on 28 Sep 2026.

FigureValue
IV rank5 of 100
At the money IV79.3%, near month, 32 days
Put/call ratio, open interest0.55
Call open interest, strikes captured near the price522,000 contracts
Put open interest, strikes captured near the price286,000 contracts
Cost to trade at the moneyTight, 4.8% of the option's mid price

IV rank is where the at the money IV sits among MARA's own weekly readings, 0 the lowest and 100 the highest.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Priced Range

On 28 Sep 2026, MARA options priced a move of 22.5 percent down and 24.0 percent up by 30 Oct 2026.

ExpiryDaysDownUpRange
2 Oct 202648.1%8.8%11.12 to 13.17
9 Oct 20261113.2%14.1%10.51 to 13.82
23 Oct 20262519.7%21.1%9.73 to 14.66
30 Oct 20263222.5%24.0%9.38 to 15.02
20 Nov 20265331.6%32.6%8.28 to 16.06
18 Dec 20268138.6%39.8%7.43 to 16.93
19 Mar 202717256.8%60.5%5.23 to 19.44

The range is one standard deviation either side of the close of 12.11, as the option prices imply it.

A priced move restates option prices at the close and says nothing certain about where the price goes.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Gamma Map

On 28 Sep 2026, MARA's call wall is the 13 strike and its put wall is the 12.5 strike.

FigureValue
Call wall, most open call gamma13
Put wall, most open put gamma12.5
Flip strike, where net gamma changes sign12.03
Net dollar gamma, calls minus puts$5.81 million
Total dollar gamma, both sides$15.3 million
Close12.11

Dollar gamma is stated for a one percent move in the price.

Net is calls minus puts under the standard convention, not a record of who holds the contracts.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Volatility History

On 28 Sep 2026, MARA's at the money IV is 79.3 percent against 20 day realized volatility of 78.0 percent.

FigureValue
At the money IV79.3%
Realized volatility, 20 trading days78.0%
Realized volatility, 60 trading days93.9%
IV against its own weekly recordLow, in the bottom fifth
Weekly readings on record502, from 24 Apr 2015
Weeks the price moved more than the one week priced move28.4% of 236 weeks

Realized volatility is worked out from the daily closes the desk holds, not from the option chain.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Volatility Weather

On 28 Sep 2026, MARA's at the money IV runs from 81.5 percent at 4 days to 82.8 percent at 172 days.

Days to expiryAt the money IV
481.5%
1179.3%
1879.1%
2579.0%
3981.1%
5383.0%
8182.0%
17282.8%

Far expiries price more volatility than near ones, an upward sloping term structure.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Volatility Smile

On 28 Sep 2026, at the 32 day expiry, MARA's IV ten percent below the price sits 0.4 points below at the money IV.

Strike areaImplied volatilityAgainst at the money
10% below the price79.0%-0.4 points
At the money79.3%0.0 points
10% above the price79.8%+0.5 points

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Volatility Surface

On 28 Sep 2026, MARA's surface spans 10 expiries out to 172 days, with IV from 77.1 to 85.0 percent near the price.

FigureValue
Expiries captured10
Nearest expiry2 Oct 2026, 4 days
Farthest expiry19 Mar 2027, 172 days
Points within 10% of the price, 7 days out or more37
Lowest IV among them77.1%
Highest IV among them85.0%

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Expiry Ladder

On 28 Sep 2026, MARA has 10 captured expiries, from 2 Oct 2026 to 19 Mar 2027.

ExpiryDaysAt the money IVCall open interestPut open interest
2 Oct 2026481.5%144,46544,102
9 Oct 20261179.3%27,51323,356
16 Oct 20261879.1%64,95436,817
23 Oct 20262579.0%18,74914,689
30 Oct 20263279.3%14,8794,222
6 Nov 20263981.1%371828
20 Nov 20265383.0%35,68422,123
18 Dec 20268182.0%64,87258,652
15 Jan 202710979.6%104,29676,430
19 Mar 202717282.8%46,0224,392

Open interest is summed over the strikes captured near the price on each expiry.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Strike Table

On 28 Sep 2026, MARA's largest open interest sits at the 13 strike, with 121,509 contracts across the captured expiries.

StrikeCall open interestPut open interestTotal
1395,79725,712121,509
12.551,77617,58769,363
1561,8615,29067,151
1018,47042,87161,341
1448,3676,81555,182
1228,12626,06054,186

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Since Yesterday

From 25 Sep 2026 to 28 Sep 2026, MARA's at the money IV moved from 76.8 percent to 79.3 percent.

Figure25 Sep28 SepChange
At the money IV76.8%79.3%+2.6 points
Open interest, strikes captured near the price707,757807,416+99,659
Put/call ratio, open interest0.600.55-0.05

Open interest changes cannot identify buyers or sellers.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Changed Hands

On 28 Sep 2026, 92,662 MARA option contracts traded, 0.6 times its own recent average.

FigureValue
Calls traded56,140
Puts traded36,522
Against its recent average0.6 times
Busier than0 of its last 20 trading days
Open interest, whole chain1.26 million contracts
Volume to open interest0.07
Unusual volume flagYes, 3 contracts traded well above open interest
Largest flagged contractThe 10 put expiring 23 Oct, 2,195 traded against 267 open

Traded volume and open interest are shown side by side and never combined. Open interest changes cannot identify buyers or sellers.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Positioning Replay

The replay holds 33 trading days of MARA's option positioning, from 11 Aug 2026 to 28 Sep 2026.

DateCloseNet dollar gammaTop call strikeTop put strike
11 Aug 20269.68minus $531,18910.510
21 Sep 202613.28$9.65 million1313
28 Sep 202612.11$5.81 million1312.5

Each frame restates one nightly capture. Net is calls minus puts, a convention, not who holds the contracts.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Read-out

On 25 Sep 2026 the desk's view of MARA was bullish, paper trading.

FigureValue
SideBullish at 45 trading days, no signal
Level above the close12.39, the swing high of 11 Sep 2026
Level below the close10.77, the swing low of 16 Sep 2026, a close past it runs against the view
The chartSits with the view
Strategy familyBull call spread (buy a call spread)
Price targetNone. The desk has no price model.

The levels are prices the shares turned at on the chart, with the date of each.

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Rank by Timeframe

On 25 Sep 2026 MARA sat at the 68th percentile of the model's 45 trading day ranking, paper trading.

TimeframePercentileSide
10 trading days52 of 100Neutral
20 trading days79 of 100Neutral
45 trading days68 of 100Neutral

100 is the top of the ranking. A name in the middle three fifths is neutral.

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Timeframe Agreement

On 25 Sep 2026 MARA's near timeframes were neutral and its long timeframe was neutral, paper trading.

GroupTimeframesSideOn that side
Near10 day, 20 dayNeutral0 of 2
Long45 dayNeutral0 of 1

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Signal History

On 25 Sep 2026 MARA had carried no signal for at least 18 trading days, paper trading.

Trading daySignal45 day percentile
25 Sep 2026None68 of 100
24 Sep 2026None57 of 100
23 Sep 2026None16 of 100
22 Sep 2026None29 of 100
21 Sep 2026None47 of 100
18 Sep 2026None50 of 100
17 Sep 2026None70 of 100
16 Sep 2026None48 of 100

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Sector Split

On 25 Sep 2026, 63 of 135 Financials names were bullish and 32 were bearish, paper trading.

SectorNamesBullishBearishNeutral
Financials135633240

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Price Chart

MARA closed at 12.11 on 28 Sep 2026.

FigureValue
Last close12.11
Change over 5 trading days-8.8%
Change over 21 trading days+2.0%
Change over 63 trading days-13.7%
Change over 252 trading days-24.6%
52 week high23.45
52 week low6.66
20 day moving average11.90
50 day moving average11.32
200 day moving average10.97
RSI, 14 days52

Worked out from the desk's own daily bars, adjusted for share splits.

From the daily bars through 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Earnings Radar

MARA reports next on 4 Nov 2026, a date worked out from past quarters.

FigureValue
Next report4 Nov 2026, after the close
DateWorked out from past quarters
Move after the report of 5 Aug 2026-5.2%
Move after the report of 30 Apr 2026-4.4%
Move after the report of 28 Jan 2026-4.9%
Move after the report of 8 May 2025+10.3%

Earnings calendar as of 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Company Events

MARA filed 1 current report in the 14 days to 28 Sep 2026, the latest on 25 Sep 2026.

FiledReportWhat it covers
25 Sep 2026Current reportEntry into a Material Definitive Agreement

Filings as of 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Seasonality

In the 13 Septembers on record, MARA's average change was minus 7.7 percent, and it rose in 23.1 percent of them.

MonthAverage changeMiddle changeShare of years upYears
September-7.7%-9.6%23.1%13
October+1.9%+0.1%53.8%13
November+29.0%+4.3%61.5%13

Each figure is a month end to month end change in past years. A past month says nothing certain about the next one.

Monthly history through 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Headlines

The desk's news feeds carried 2 headlines naming MARA in the 3 days to 28 Sep 2026.

FigureValue
Headlines in the window2
Latest28 Sep 2026

The titles are in the Headlines window, with the time each was published.

Headlines as of 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Questions

What is MARA's IV rank?
MARA's IV rank is 5 of 100 on 28 Sep 2026.
What move are MARA options pricing?
On 28 Sep 2026, MARA options priced a move of 22.5 percent down and 24.0 percent up by 30 Oct 2026.
Where are MARA's call wall and put wall?
On 28 Sep 2026, MARA's call wall is the 13 strike and its put wall is the 12.5 strike.
What was the latest Trade Card for MARA on the Free plan?
On 25 Sep 2026 the Trade Card for MARA was a bull call spread expiring 18 Dec 2026, paper trading.
When does MARA report earnings next?
MARA reports next on 4 Nov 2026, a date worked out from past quarters.

More Financials names

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