Financials

Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) options and signal

Figures as of 28 Sep 2026

UPST is Upstart Holdings, Inc., a Financials name the model ranks every trading day. The options figures are from the close on 28 Sep 2026. The model's figures are from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind the latest, as the Free plan shows them. Every model figure is paper trading.

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At a glance

Figure	Value	Date
Trade Card	Bull call spread, 18 Dec	25 Sep
IV rank	0 of 100	28 Sep
At the money IV	54.5%	28 Sep
Priced move to 30 Oct	16.8% down, 17.5% up	28 Sep
Call wall and put wall	Both 25	28 Sep
Signal and the desk's view	No signal, view bullish	25 Sep
Last close	23.03	28 Sep
Next report	3 Nov 2026	28 Sep

Trade Cards

On 25 Sep 2026 the Trade Card for UPST was a bull call spread expiring 18 Dec 2026, paper trading.

Figure	Value
Signal	Neutral
Strategy	Bull call spread, debit
Legs	Buy the 25 call, Sell the 30 call
Expiry	18 Dec 2026, 84 days to expiry
Limit	A debit of at most $1.41
Probability of profit	40%, the option market's odds at expiry, from delta
Max loss	$141 per contract
Max profit	$359 per contract
Breakeven	26.41
IV rank at that expiry	7 of 100

Probability of profit is the option market's own odds from delta, not the model's.

Priced on the option chain at the close on 25 Sep 2026.

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Options Snapshot

UPST's IV rank is 0 of 100 on 28 Sep 2026.

Figure	Value
IV rank	0 of 100
At the money IV	54.5%, near month, 32 days
Put/call ratio, open interest	1.31
Call open interest, strikes captured near the price	63,600 contracts
Put open interest, strikes captured near the price	83,200 contracts
Cost to trade at the money	Wide, 41.2% of the option's mid price

IV rank is where the at the money IV sits among UPST's own weekly readings, 0 the lowest and 100 the highest.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Priced Range

On 28 Sep 2026, UPST options priced a move of 16.8 percent down and 17.5 percent up by 30 Oct 2026.

Expiry	Days	Down	Up	Range
2 Oct 2026	4	6.8%	6.1%	21.47 to 24.44
9 Oct 2026	11	9.1%	11.1%	20.94 to 25.59
23 Oct 2026	25	13.4%	16.1%	19.94 to 26.74
30 Oct 2026	32	16.8%	17.5%	19.16 to 27.05
20 Nov 2026	53	27.4%	27.7%	16.71 to 29.40
18 Dec 2026	81	30.6%	32.7%	15.99 to 30.57
19 Feb 2027	144	42.3%	45.6%	13.29 to 33.53

The range is one standard deviation either side of the close of 23.03, as the option prices imply it.

A priced move restates option prices at the close and says nothing certain about where the price goes.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Gamma Map

On 28 Sep 2026, UPST's call wall and put wall are both at the 25 strike.

Figure	Value
Call wall, most open call gamma	25
Put wall, most open put gamma	25
Net dollar gamma, calls minus puts	minus $880,697
Total dollar gamma, both sides	$4.07 million
Close	23.03

Dollar gamma is stated for a one percent move in the price.

Net is calls minus puts under the standard convention, not a record of who holds the contracts.

Net gamma changes sign at 5 strikes, so no single flip strike is named.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Volatility History

On 28 Sep 2026, UPST's at the money IV is 54.5 percent against 20 day realized volatility of 42.9 percent.

Figure	Value
At the money IV	54.5%
Realized volatility, 20 trading days	42.9%
Realized volatility, 60 trading days	48.8%
IV against its own weekly record	Low, in the bottom fifth
Weekly readings on record	271, from 5 Feb 2021
Weeks the price moved more than the one week priced move	30.9% of 236 weeks

Realized volatility is worked out from the daily closes the desk holds, not from the option chain.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Volatility Weather

On 28 Sep 2026, UPST's at the money IV runs from 61.2 percent at 4 days to 72.5 percent at 144 days.

Days to expiry	At the money IV
4	61.2%
11	58.2%
18	57.9%
25	59.2%
39	68.2%
53	72.5%
81	69.5%
144	72.5%

Far expiries price more volatility than near ones, an upward sloping term structure.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Volatility Smile

On 28 Sep 2026, at the 32 day expiry, UPST's IV ten percent below the price sits 8.1 points above at the money IV.

Strike area	Implied volatility	Against at the money
10% below the price	62.6%	+8.1 points
At the money	54.5%	0.0 points
10% above the price	58.0%	+3.5 points

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Volatility Surface

On 28 Sep 2026, UPST's surface spans 10 expiries out to 144 days, with IV from 50.0 to 75.1 percent near the price.

Figure	Value
Expiries captured	10
Nearest expiry	2 Oct 2026, 4 days
Farthest expiry	19 Feb 2027, 144 days
Points within 10% of the price, 7 days out or more	41
Lowest IV among them	50.0%
Highest IV among them	75.1%

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Expiry Ladder

On 28 Sep 2026, UPST has 10 captured expiries, from 2 Oct 2026 to 19 Feb 2027.

Expiry	Days	At the money IV	Call open interest	Put open interest
2 Oct 2026	4	61.2%	6,754	6,191
9 Oct 2026	11	58.2%	2,643	3,569
16 Oct 2026	18	57.9%	13,032	16,868
23 Oct 2026	25	59.2%	1,041	1,628
30 Oct 2026	32	54.5%	717	817
6 Nov 2026	39	68.2%	190	375
20 Nov 2026	53	72.5%	2,006	1,873
18 Dec 2026	81	69.5%	11,479	8,800
15 Jan 2027	109	66.7%	20,924	41,470
19 Feb 2027	144	72.5%	4,775	1,627

Open interest is summed over the strikes captured near the price on each expiry.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Strike Table

On 28 Sep 2026, UPST's largest open interest sits at the 25 strike, with 22,772 contracts across the captured expiries.

Strike	Call open interest	Put open interest	Total
25	9,560	13,212	22,772
30	12,303	6,294	18,597
27.5	4,032	12,086	16,118
17.5	660	13,374	14,034
45	4,379	4,057	8,436
35	5,252	3,101	8,353

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Since Yesterday

From 25 Sep 2026 to 28 Sep 2026, UPST's at the money IV moved from 57.0 percent to 54.5 percent.

Figure	25 Sep	28 Sep	Change
At the money IV	57.0%	54.5%	-2.5 points
Open interest, strikes captured near the price	141,104	146,779	+5,675
Put/call ratio, open interest	1.31	1.31	+0.00

Open interest changes cannot identify buyers or sellers.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Changed Hands

On 28 Sep 2026, 24,556 UPST option contracts traded, 1.3 times its own recent average.

Figure	Value
Calls traded	14,806
Puts traded	9,750
Against its recent average	1.3 times
Busier than	19 of its last 20 trading days
Open interest, whole chain	223,461 contracts
Volume to open interest	0.11
Unusual volume flag	Yes, 3 contracts traded well above open interest
Largest flagged contract	The 24 call expiring 2 Oct, 2,281 traded against 486 open

Traded volume and open interest are shown side by side and never combined. Open interest changes cannot identify buyers or sellers.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Positioning Replay

The replay holds 33 trading days of UPST's option positioning, from 11 Aug 2026 to 28 Sep 2026.

Date	Close	Net dollar gamma	Top call strike	Top put strike
11 Aug 2026	29.89	minus $134,733	30	30
21 Sep 2026	25.58	minus $647,347	25	25
28 Sep 2026	23.03	minus $880,697	25	25

Each frame restates one nightly capture. Net is calls minus puts, a convention, not who holds the contracts.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Read-out

On 25 Sep 2026 the desk's view of UPST was bullish, paper trading.

Figure	Value
Side	Bullish at 45 trading days, no signal
Level above the close	24.49, the swing high of 16 Sep 2026
Level below the close	22.79, the swing low of 28 Sep 2026, a close past it runs against the view
The chart	Sits against the view
Strategy family	Bull call spread (buy a call spread)
Price target	None. The desk has no price model.

The levels are prices the shares turned at on the chart, with the date of each.

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Rank by Timeframe

On 25 Sep 2026 UPST sat at the 67th percentile of the model's 45 trading day ranking, paper trading.

Timeframe	Percentile	Side
10 trading days	67 of 100	Neutral
20 trading days	66 of 100	Neutral
45 trading days	67 of 100	Neutral

100 is the top of the ranking. A name in the middle three fifths is neutral.

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Timeframe Agreement

On 25 Sep 2026 UPST's near timeframes were neutral and its long timeframe was neutral, paper trading.

Group	Timeframes	Side	On that side
Near	10 day, 20 day	Neutral	0 of 2
Long	45 day	Neutral	0 of 1

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Signal History

On 25 Sep 2026 UPST had carried no signal for 5 trading days, paper trading.

Trading day	Signal	45 day percentile
25 Sep 2026	None	67 of 100
24 Sep 2026	None	83 of 100
23 Sep 2026	None	82 of 100
22 Sep 2026	None	74 of 100
21 Sep 2026	None	93 of 100
18 Sep 2026	Bullish	96 of 100
17 Sep 2026	None	89 of 100
16 Sep 2026	None	61 of 100

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Sector Split

On 25 Sep 2026, 63 of 135 Financials names were bullish and 32 were bearish, paper trading.

Sector	Names	Bullish	Bearish	Neutral
Financials	135	63	32	40

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Price Chart

UPST closed at 23.03 on 28 Sep 2026.

Figure	Value
Last close	23.03
Change over 5 trading days	-10.0%
Change over 21 trading days	-24.4%
Change over 63 trading days	-34.3%
Change over 252 trading days	-59.5%
52 week high	57.95
52 week low	22.79
20 day moving average	25.89
50 day moving average	27.92
200 day moving average	32.76
RSI, 14 days	31

Worked out from the desk's own daily bars, adjusted for share splits.

From the daily bars through 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Earnings Radar

UPST reports next on 3 Nov 2026, a date worked out from past quarters.

Figure	Value
Next report	3 Nov 2026, after the close
Date	Worked out from past quarters
Move after the report of 4 Aug 2026	-0.4%
Move after the report of 30 Apr 2026	+3.7%
Move after the report of 28 Jan 2026	-3.8%
Move after the report of 6 May 2025	-9.7%

Earnings calendar as of 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Seasonality

In the 5 Septembers on record, UPST's average change was minus 5.9 percent, and it rose in 20.0 percent of them.

Month	Average change	Middle change	Share of years up	Years
September	-5.9%	-11.3%	20.0%	5
October	+2.5%	+1.8%	60.0%	5
November	+3.2%	-5.4%	40.0%	5

Each figure is a month end to month end change in past years. A past month says nothing certain about the next one.

Monthly history through 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Headlines

The desk's news feeds carried 5 headlines naming UPST in the 3 days to 28 Sep 2026.

Figure	Value
Headlines in the window	5
Latest	28 Sep 2026

The titles are in the Headlines window, with the time each was published.

Headlines as of 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Questions

What is UPST's IV rank?: UPST's IV rank is 0 of 100 on 28 Sep 2026.
What move are UPST options pricing?: On 28 Sep 2026, UPST options priced a move of 16.8 percent down and 17.5 percent up by 30 Oct 2026.
Where are UPST's call wall and put wall?: On 28 Sep 2026, UPST's call wall and put wall are both at the 25 strike.
What was the latest Trade Card for UPST on the Free plan?: On 25 Sep 2026 the Trade Card for UPST was a bull call spread expiring 18 Dec 2026, paper trading.
When does UPST report earnings next?: UPST reports next on 3 Nov 2026, a date worked out from past quarters.

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