Materials

Alcoa Corporation (AA) options and signal

Figures as of 28 Sep 2026

AA is Alcoa Corporation, a Materials name the model ranks every trading day. The options figures are from the close on 28 Sep 2026. The model's figures are from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind the latest, as the Free plan shows them. Every model figure is paper trading.

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At a glance

Figure	Value	Date
IV rank	71 of 100	28 Sep
At the money IV	51.7%	28 Sep
Priced move to 30 Oct	16.0% down, 14.9% up	28 Sep
Call wall and put wall	50 and 40	28 Sep
Signal and the desk's view	No signal, view bullish	25 Sep
Last close	42.25	28 Sep
Next report	15 Oct 2026	28 Sep

Options Snapshot

AA's IV rank is 71 of 100 on 28 Sep 2026.

Figure	Value
IV rank	71 of 100
At the money IV	51.7%, near month, 32 days
Put/call ratio, open interest	1.04
Call open interest, strikes captured near the price	76,700 contracts
Put open interest, strikes captured near the price	79,600 contracts
Cost to trade at the money	Fair, 17.6% of the option's mid price

IV rank is where the at the money IV sits among AA's own weekly readings, 0 the lowest and 100 the highest.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Priced Range

On 28 Sep 2026, AA options priced a move of 16.0 percent down and 14.9 percent up by 30 Oct 2026.

Expiry	Days	Down	Up	Range
2 Oct 2026	4	5.3%	5.3%	40.03 to 44.49
9 Oct 2026	11	8.2%	8.9%	38.80 to 46.02
23 Oct 2026	25	13.7%	13.4%	36.46 to 47.92
30 Oct 2026	32	16.0%	14.9%	35.51 to 48.56
20 Nov 2026	53	18.2%	19.6%	34.55 to 50.54
18 Dec 2026	81	22.8%	23.6%	32.63 to 52.22
19 Mar 2027	172	32.0%	34.8%	28.75 to 56.95

The range is one standard deviation either side of the close of 42.25, as the option prices imply it.

A priced move restates option prices at the close and says nothing certain about where the price goes.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Gamma Map

On 28 Sep 2026, AA's call wall is the 50 strike and its put wall is the 40 strike.

Figure	Value
Call wall, most open call gamma	50
Put wall, most open put gamma	40
Net dollar gamma, calls minus puts	minus $1.11 million
Total dollar gamma, both sides	$9.58 million
Close	42.25

Dollar gamma is stated for a one percent move in the price.

Net is calls minus puts under the standard convention, not a record of who holds the contracts.

Net gamma changes sign at 7 strikes, so no single flip strike is named.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

Open Gamma Map in RingMaster The Gamma Map guide

Volatility History

On 28 Sep 2026, AA's at the money IV is 51.7 percent against 20 day realized volatility of 34.5 percent.

Figure	Value
At the money IV	51.7%
Realized volatility, 20 trading days	34.5%
Realized volatility, 60 trading days	44.2%
IV against its own weekly record	In the middle
Weekly readings on record	836, from 8 Jan 2010
Weeks the price moved more than the one week priced move	31.8% of 236 weeks

Realized volatility is worked out from the daily closes the desk holds, not from the option chain.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

Open Volatility History in RingMaster The Volatility History guide

Volatility Weather

On 28 Sep 2026, AA's at the money IV runs from 52.0 percent at 4 days to 48.4 percent at 172 days.

Days to expiry	At the money IV
4	52.0%
11	51.3%
18	52.4%
25	50.8%
39	51.3%
53	49.5%
81	49.4%
172	48.4%

Near expiries price more volatility than far ones, an inverted term structure.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Volatility Smile

On 28 Sep 2026, at the 32 day expiry, AA's IV ten percent below the price sits 3.7 points above at the money IV.

Strike area	Implied volatility	Against at the money
10% below the price	55.4%	+3.7 points
At the money	51.7%	0.0 points
10% above the price	53.5%	+1.8 points

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Volatility Surface

On 28 Sep 2026, AA's surface spans 10 expiries out to 172 days, with IV from 45.8 to 56.8 percent near the price.

Figure	Value
Expiries captured	10
Nearest expiry	2 Oct 2026, 4 days
Farthest expiry	19 Mar 2027, 172 days
Points within 10% of the price, 7 days out or more	62
Lowest IV among them	45.8%
Highest IV among them	56.8%

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

Open Volatility Surface in RingMaster The Volatility Surface guide

Expiry Ladder

On 28 Sep 2026, AA has 10 captured expiries, from 2 Oct 2026 to 19 Mar 2027.

Expiry	Days	At the money IV	Call open interest	Put open interest
2 Oct 2026	4	52.0%	7,042	2,533
9 Oct 2026	11	51.3%	1,227	2,454
16 Oct 2026	18	52.4%	26,680	18,252
23 Oct 2026	25	50.8%	3,389	575
30 Oct 2026	32	51.7%	766	1,100
6 Nov 2026	39	51.3%	296	130
20 Nov 2026	53	49.5%	2,032	1,034
18 Dec 2026	81	49.4%	11,678	15,205
15 Jan 2027	109	48.7%	17,783	28,653
19 Mar 2027	172	48.4%	5,778	9,674

Open interest is summed over the strikes captured near the price on each expiry.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Strike Table

On 28 Sep 2026, AA's largest open interest sits at the 50 strike, with 29,772 contracts across the captured expiries.

Strike	Call open interest	Put open interest	Total
50	22,516	7,256	29,772
55	14,946	4,696	19,642
45	5,128	13,312	18,440
40	2,066	13,533	15,599
35	1,028	8,219	9,247
30	714	7,990	8,704

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Since Yesterday

From 25 Sep 2026 to 28 Sep 2026, AA's at the money IV moved from 50.3 percent to 51.7 percent.

Figure	25 Sep	28 Sep	Change
At the money IV	50.3%	51.7%	+1.4 points
Open interest, strikes captured near the price	150,398	156,281	+5,883
Put/call ratio, open interest	1.06	1.04	-0.02

Open interest changes cannot identify buyers or sellers.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

Open Since Yesterday in RingMaster The Since Yesterday guide

Changed Hands

On 28 Sep 2026, 13,817 AA option contracts traded, 0.9 times its own recent average.

Figure	Value
Calls traded	7,090
Puts traded	6,727
Against its recent average	0.9 times
Busier than	12 of its last 20 trading days
Open interest, whole chain	202,948 contracts
Volume to open interest	0.07
Unusual volume flag	No

Traded volume and open interest are shown side by side and never combined. Open interest changes cannot identify buyers or sellers.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Positioning Replay

The replay holds 33 trading days of AA's option positioning, from 11 Aug 2026 to 28 Sep 2026.

Date	Close	Net dollar gamma	Top call strike	Top put strike
11 Aug 2026	54.08	$5.49 million	50	55
21 Sep 2026	44.64	minus $318,019	50	45
28 Sep 2026	42.25	minus $1.11 million	50	40

Each frame restates one nightly capture. Net is calls minus puts, a convention, not who holds the contracts.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Read-out

On 25 Sep 2026 the desk's view of AA was bullish, paper trading.

Figure	Value
Side	Bullish at 45 trading days, no signal
Level above the close	47.49, the swing high of 17 Sep 2026
Level below the close	41.75, the swing low of 28 Sep 2026, a close past it runs against the view
The chart	Sits against the view
Strategy family	Cash-secured put (sell a put below the price)
Price target	None. The desk has no price model.

The levels are prices the shares turned at on the chart, with the date of each.

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

Open Read-out in RingMaster The Read-out guide

Rank by Timeframe

On 25 Sep 2026 AA sat at the 76th percentile of the model's 45 trading day ranking, paper trading.

Timeframe	Percentile	Side
10 trading days	87 of 100	Bullish
20 trading days	92 of 100	Bullish
45 trading days	76 of 100	Neutral

100 is the top of the ranking. A name in the middle three fifths is neutral.

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

Open Rank by Timeframe in RingMaster The Rank by Timeframe guide

Timeframe Agreement

On 25 Sep 2026, 2 of 3 timeframes put AA on the bullish side, paper trading.

Group	Timeframes	Side	On that side
Near	10 day, 20 day	Bullish	2 of 2
Long	45 day	Neutral	0 of 1

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

Open Timeframe Agreement in RingMaster The Timeframe Agreement guide

Signal History

On 25 Sep 2026 AA had carried no signal for at least 18 trading days, paper trading.

Trading day	Signal	45 day percentile
25 Sep 2026	None	76 of 100
24 Sep 2026	None	73 of 100
23 Sep 2026	None	57 of 100
22 Sep 2026	None	70 of 100
21 Sep 2026	None	79 of 100
18 Sep 2026	None	86 of 100
17 Sep 2026	None	71 of 100
16 Sep 2026	None	55 of 100

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Sector Split

On 25 Sep 2026, 35 of 62 Materials names were bullish and 11 were bearish, paper trading.

Sector	Names	Bullish	Bearish	Neutral
Materials	62	35	11	16

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

Open Sector Split in RingMaster The Sector Split guide

Price Chart

AA closed at 42.25 on 28 Sep 2026.

Figure	Value
Last close	42.25
Change over 5 trading days	-5.4%
Change over 21 trading days	-17.5%
Change over 63 trading days	-21.0%
Change over 252 trading days	+34.3%
52 week high	84.38
52 week low	31.45
20 day moving average	47.21
50 day moving average	47.81
200 day moving average	58.08
RSI, 14 days	31

Worked out from the desk's own daily bars, adjusted for share splits.

From the daily bars through 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Earnings Radar

AA reports next on 15 Oct 2026, and options priced an earnings move of 9.3 percent through 16 Oct 2026.

Figure	Value
Next report	15 Oct 2026, after the close
Date	Confirmed by the company
Priced earnings move	9.3%, a straddle of $3.93 at the 42 strike, expiring 16 Oct 2026
Move after the report of 16 Jul 2026	-6.1%
Move after the report of 16 Apr 2026	-6.8%
Move after the report of 22 Jan 2026	-1.5%
Move after the report of 22 Oct 2025	+12.6%

The priced earnings move is the straddle's cost over the share price. It restates option prices and says nothing certain about the report.

Earnings calendar as of 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Company Events

AA filed 1 current report in the 14 days to 28 Sep 2026, the latest on 23 Sep 2026.

Filed	Report	What it covers
23 Sep 2026	Current report	Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement; Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant; Regulation FD Disclosure; Other Events

Filings as of 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Seasonality

In the 36 Septembers on record, AA's average change was minus 3.4 percent, and it rose in 44.4 percent of them.

Month	Average change	Middle change	Share of years up	Years
September	-3.4%	-2.3%	44.4%	36
October	+0.7%	+1.2%	55.6%	36
November	+5.0%	+3.2%	63.9%	36

Each figure is a month end to month end change in past years. A past month says nothing certain about the next one.

Monthly history through 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Questions

What is AA's IV rank?: AA's IV rank is 71 of 100 on 28 Sep 2026.
What move are AA options pricing?: On 28 Sep 2026, AA options priced a move of 16.0 percent down and 14.9 percent up by 30 Oct 2026.
Where are AA's call wall and put wall?: On 28 Sep 2026, AA's call wall is the 50 strike and its put wall is the 40 strike.
What was the desk's latest view of AA on the Free plan?: On 25 Sep 2026 the desk's view of AA was bullish, paper trading.
When does AA report earnings next?: AA reports next on 15 Oct 2026, and options priced an earnings move of 9.3 percent through 16 Oct 2026.

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