Information Technology

Arm Holdings plc (ARM) options and signal

Figures as of 28 Sep 2026

ARM is Arm Holdings plc, an Information Technology name the model ranks every trading day. The options figures are from the close on 28 Sep 2026. The model's figures are from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind the latest, as the Free plan shows them. Every model figure is paper trading.

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At a glance

Figure	Value	Date
Trade Card	Bear call spread, 18 Dec	25 Sep
IV rank	80 of 100	28 Sep
At the money IV	65.9%	28 Sep
Priced move to 30 Oct	19.4% down, 21.1% up	28 Sep
Call wall and put wall	320 and 250	28 Sep
Signal and the desk's view	No signal, view bearish	25 Sep
Last close	283.33	28 Sep
Next report	4 Nov 2026	28 Sep

Trade Cards

On 25 Sep 2026 the Trade Card for ARM was a bear call spread expiring 18 Dec 2026, paper trading.

Figure	Value
Signal	Neutral
Strategy	Bear call spread, credit
Legs	Sell the 510 call, Buy the 540 call
Expiry	18 Dec 2026, 84 days to expiry
Limit	A credit of at least $1.58
Probability of profit	70%, the option market's odds at expiry, from delta
Max loss	$2,842 per contract
Max profit	$158 per contract
Breakeven	511.58
IV rank at that expiry	94 of 100

Probability of profit is the option market's own odds from delta, not the model's.

Priced on the option chain at the close on 25 Sep 2026.

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Options Snapshot

ARM's IV rank is 80 of 100 on 28 Sep 2026.

Figure	Value
IV rank	80 of 100
At the money IV	65.9%, near month, 32 days
Put/call ratio, open interest	0.90
Call open interest, strikes captured near the price	192,000 contracts
Put open interest, strikes captured near the price	172,000 contracts
Cost to trade at the money	Tight, 9.5% of the option's mid price

IV rank is where the at the money IV sits among ARM's own weekly readings, 0 the lowest and 100 the highest.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Priced Range

On 28 Sep 2026, ARM options priced a move of 19.4 percent down and 21.1 percent up by 30 Oct 2026.

Expiry	Days	Down	Up	Range
2 Oct 2026	4	7.3%	7.9%	262.53 to 305.63
9 Oct 2026	11	11.5%	12.2%	250.73 to 318.03
23 Oct 2026	25	17.3%	18.2%	234.23 to 334.83
30 Oct 2026	32	19.4%	21.1%	228.43 to 343.03
20 Nov 2026	53	27.1%	29.4%	206.63 to 366.73
18 Dec 2026	81	31.8%	35.1%	193.23 to 382.83
19 Mar 2027	172	45.5%	51.2%	154.33 to 428.33

The range is one standard deviation either side of the close of 283.33, as the option prices imply it.

A priced move restates option prices at the close and says nothing certain about where the price goes.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Gamma Map

On 28 Sep 2026, ARM's call wall is the 320 strike and its put wall is the 250 strike.

Figure	Value
Call wall, most open call gamma	320
Put wall, most open put gamma	250
Net dollar gamma, calls minus puts	$11.93 million
Total dollar gamma, both sides	$112.8 million
Close	283.33

Dollar gamma is stated for a one percent move in the price.

Net is calls minus puts under the standard convention, not a record of who holds the contracts.

Net gamma changes sign at 12 strikes, so no single flip strike is named.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Volatility History

On 28 Sep 2026, ARM's at the money IV is 65.9 percent against 20 day realized volatility of 94.3 percent.

Figure	Value
At the money IV	65.9%
Realized volatility, 20 trading days	94.3%
Realized volatility, 60 trading days	86.0%
IV against its own weekly record	In the middle
Weekly readings on record	134, from 22 Sep 2023
Weeks the price moved more than the one week priced move	30.8% of 133 weeks

Realized volatility is worked out from the daily closes the desk holds, not from the option chain.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Volatility Weather

On 28 Sep 2026, ARM's at the money IV runs from 71.8 percent at 4 days to 70.6 percent at 172 days.

Days to expiry	At the money IV
4	71.8%
11	68.4%
18	67.8%
25	67.4%
39	73.3%
53	74.7%
81	70.9%
172	70.6%

Near expiries price more volatility than far ones, an inverted term structure.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Volatility Smile

On 28 Sep 2026, at the 32 day expiry, ARM's IV ten percent below the price sits 1.6 points above at the money IV.

Strike area	Implied volatility	Against at the money
10% below the price	67.6%	+1.6 points
At the money	65.9%	0.0 points
10% above the price	68.3%	+2.4 points

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Volatility Surface

On 28 Sep 2026, ARM's surface spans 10 expiries out to 172 days, with IV from 65.5 to 76.6 percent near the price.

Figure	Value
Expiries captured	10
Nearest expiry	2 Oct 2026, 4 days
Farthest expiry	19 Mar 2027, 172 days
Points within 10% of the price, 7 days out or more	101
Lowest IV among them	65.5%
Highest IV among them	76.6%

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Expiry Ladder

On 28 Sep 2026, ARM has 10 captured expiries, from 2 Oct 2026 to 19 Mar 2027.

Expiry	Days	At the money IV	Call open interest	Put open interest
2 Oct 2026	4	71.8%	13,993	9,637
9 Oct 2026	11	68.4%	5,100	2,870
16 Oct 2026	18	67.8%	25,422	25,467
23 Oct 2026	25	67.4%	2,290	2,747
30 Oct 2026	32	65.9%	2,020	4,377
6 Nov 2026	39	73.3%	309	298
20 Nov 2026	53	74.7%	45,434	27,003
18 Dec 2026	81	70.9%	30,099	38,567
15 Jan 2027	109	69.5%	48,585	40,716
19 Mar 2027	172	70.6%	19,153	20,381

Open interest is summed over the strikes captured near the price on each expiry.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Strike Table

On 28 Sep 2026, ARM's largest open interest sits at the 320 strike, with 29,219 contracts across the captured expiries.

Strike	Call open interest	Put open interest	Total
320	26,950	2,269	29,219
200	7,724	12,516	20,240
250	5,700	12,631	18,331
300	9,809	6,346	16,155
270	8,461	6,688	15,149
220	1,503	11,584	13,087

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Since Yesterday

From 25 Sep 2026 to 28 Sep 2026, ARM's at the money IV moved from 67.3 percent to 65.9 percent.

Figure	25 Sep	28 Sep	Change
At the money IV	67.3%	65.9%	-1.4 points
Open interest, strikes captured near the price	357,246	364,468	+7,222
Put/call ratio, open interest	0.81	0.89	+0.09

Open interest changes cannot identify buyers or sellers.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Changed Hands

On 28 Sep 2026, 108,117 ARM option contracts traded, 0.9 times its own recent average.

Figure	Value
Calls traded	55,622
Puts traded	52,495
Against its recent average	0.9 times
Busier than	16 of its last 20 trading days
Open interest, whole chain	710,595 contracts
Volume to open interest	0.15
Unusual volume flag	Yes, 24 contracts traded well above open interest
Largest flagged contract	The 300 call expiring 2 Oct, 3,133 traded against 584 open

Traded volume and open interest are shown side by side and never combined. Open interest changes cannot identify buyers or sellers.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Positioning Replay

The replay holds 33 trading days of ARM's option positioning, from 11 Aug 2026 to 28 Sep 2026.

Date	Close	Net dollar gamma	Top call strike	Top put strike
11 Aug 2026	268.93	$8.65 million	300	250
21 Sep 2026	322.90	$49.36 million	300	300
28 Sep 2026	283.33	$11.93 million	320	250

Each frame restates one nightly capture. Net is calls minus puts, a convention, not who holds the contracts.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Read-out

On 25 Sep 2026 the desk's view of ARM was bearish, paper trading.

Figure	Value
Side	Bearish at 45 trading days, no signal
Level above the close	336.98, the swing high of 23 Sep 2026, a close past it runs against the view
Level below the close	274.80, the swing low of 9 Sep 2026
The chart	Sits against the view
Strategy family	Bear call spread (sell a call spread above the price)
Price target	None. The desk has no price model.

The levels are prices the shares turned at on the chart, with the date of each.

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Rank by Timeframe

On 25 Sep 2026 ARM sat at the 12th percentile of the model's 45 trading day ranking, paper trading.

Timeframe	Percentile	Side
10 trading days	43 of 100	Neutral
20 trading days	8 of 100	Bearish
45 trading days	12 of 100	Bearish

100 is the top of the ranking. A name in the middle three fifths is neutral.

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Timeframe Agreement

On 25 Sep 2026, 2 of 3 timeframes put ARM on the bearish side, paper trading.

Group	Timeframes	Side	On that side
Near	10 day, 20 day	Bearish	1 of 2
Long	45 day	Bearish	1 of 1

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Signal History

On 25 Sep 2026 ARM had carried no signal for 2 trading days, paper trading.

Trading day	Signal	45 day percentile
25 Sep 2026	None	12 of 100
24 Sep 2026	None	55 of 100
23 Sep 2026	Bearish	1 of 100
22 Sep 2026	Bearish	1 of 100
21 Sep 2026	None	41 of 100
18 Sep 2026	None	63 of 100
17 Sep 2026	None	51 of 100
16 Sep 2026	None	11 of 100

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Sector Split

On 25 Sep 2026, 80 of 187 Information Technology names were bullish and 61 were bearish, paper trading.

Sector	Names	Bullish	Bearish	Neutral
Information Technology	187	80	61	46

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Price Chart

ARM closed at 283.33 on 28 Sep 2026.

Figure	Value
Last close	283.33
Change over 5 trading days	-12.3%
Change over 21 trading days	+11.0%
Change over 63 trading days	-17.5%
Change over 252 trading days	+101.4%
52 week high	452.70
52 week low	100.02
20 day moving average	270.25
50 day moving average	264.64
200 day moving average	212.54
RSI, 14 days	52

Worked out from the desk's own daily bars, adjusted for share splits.

From the daily bars through 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Earnings Radar

ARM reports next on 4 Nov 2026, a date confirmed by the company.

Figure	Value
Next report	4 Nov 2026, after the close
Date	Confirmed by the company
Move after the report of 29 Jul 2026	+7.4%
Move after the report of 5 May 2026	+13.6%
Move after the report of 4 Feb 2026	+5.7%
Move after the report of 5 Nov 2025	-1.2%

Earnings calendar as of 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Seasonality

In the 2 Septembers on record, ARM's average change was plus 5.0 percent, and it rose in 100.0 percent of them.

Month	Average change	Middle change	Share of years up	Years
September	+5.0%	+5.0%	100.0%	2
October	+9.4%	+9.4%	50.0%	2
November	-0.1%	-5.0%	33.3%	3

Each figure is a month end to month end change in past years. A past month says nothing certain about the next one.

Monthly history through 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Headlines

The desk's news feeds carried 4 headlines naming ARM in the 3 days to 28 Sep 2026.

Figure	Value
Headlines in the window	4
Latest	28 Sep 2026

The titles are in the Headlines window, with the time each was published.

Headlines as of 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Questions

What is ARM's IV rank?: ARM's IV rank is 80 of 100 on 28 Sep 2026.
What move are ARM options pricing?: On 28 Sep 2026, ARM options priced a move of 19.4 percent down and 21.1 percent up by 30 Oct 2026.
Where are ARM's call wall and put wall?: On 28 Sep 2026, ARM's call wall is the 320 strike and its put wall is the 250 strike.
What was the latest Trade Card for ARM on the Free plan?: On 25 Sep 2026 the Trade Card for ARM was a bear call spread expiring 18 Dec 2026, paper trading.
When does ARM report earnings next?: ARM reports next on 4 Nov 2026, a date confirmed by the company.

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