Consumer Discretionary

Burlington Stores, Inc. (BURL) options and signal

Figures as of 28 Sep 2026

BURL is Burlington Stores, Inc., a Consumer Discretionary name the model ranks every trading day. The options figures are from the close on 28 Sep 2026. The model's figures are from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind the latest, as the Free plan shows them. Every model figure is paper trading.

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At a glance

FigureValueDate
Trade CardBear call spread, 20 Nov25 Sep
IV rank78 of 10028 Sep
At the money IV47.5%28 Sep
Priced move to 30 Oct12.4% down, 13.7% up28 Sep
Call wall and put wall260 and 26528 Sep
Signal and the desk's viewBearish signal, view bearish25 Sep
Last close266.3928 Sep
Next report27 Nov 202628 Sep

Trade Cards

On 25 Sep 2026 the Trade Card for BURL was a bear call spread expiring 20 Nov 2026, paper trading.

FigureValue
SignalBearish, over 20 trading days
StrategyBear call spread, credit
LegsSell the 300 call, Buy the 330 call
Expiry20 Nov 2026, 56 days to expiry
LimitA credit of at least $2.33
Probability of profit73%, the option market's odds at expiry, from delta
Max loss$2,767 per contract
Max profit$233 per contract
Breakeven302.33
IV rank at that expiry69 of 100

Probability of profit is the option market's own odds from delta, not the model's.

Priced on the option chain at the close on 25 Sep 2026.

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Options Snapshot

BURL's IV rank is 78 of 100 on 28 Sep 2026.

FigureValue
IV rank78 of 100
At the money IV47.5%, near month, 32 days
Put/call ratio, open interest3.14
Call open interest, strikes captured near the price9,720 contracts
Put open interest, strikes captured near the price30,500 contracts
Cost to trade at the moneyFair, 17.9% of the option's mid price

IV rank is where the at the money IV sits among BURL's own weekly readings, 0 the lowest and 100 the highest.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Priced Range

On 28 Sep 2026, BURL options priced a move of 12.4 percent down and 13.7 percent up by 30 Oct 2026.

ExpiryDaysDownUpRange
2 Oct 202645.2%5.4%252.59 to 280.79
9 Oct 2026119.2%9.0%241.89 to 290.29
16 Oct 2026189.3%10.2%241.49 to 293.59
30 Oct 20263212.4%13.7%233.29 to 302.89
20 Nov 20265315.8%17.7%224.29 to 313.59
18 Dec 20268121.5%24.2%209.09 to 330.79
19 Mar 202717230.3%34.5%185.59 to 358.39

The range is one standard deviation either side of the close of 266.39, as the option prices imply it.

A priced move restates option prices at the close and says nothing certain about where the price goes.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Gamma Map

On 28 Sep 2026, BURL's call wall is the 260 strike and its put wall is the 265 strike.

FigureValue
Call wall, most open call gamma260
Put wall, most open put gamma265
Net dollar gamma, calls minus putsminus $12.3 million
Total dollar gamma, both sides$23.02 million
Close266.39

Dollar gamma is stated for a one percent move in the price.

Net is calls minus puts under the standard convention, not a record of who holds the contracts.

Net gamma changes sign at 9 strikes, so no single flip strike is named.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Volatility History

On 28 Sep 2026, BURL's at the money IV is 47.5 percent against 20 day realized volatility of 49.6 percent.

FigureValue
At the money IV47.5%
Realized volatility, 20 trading days49.6%
Realized volatility, 60 trading days42.9%
IV against its own weekly recordIn the middle
Weekly readings on record649, from 18 Oct 2013
Weeks the price moved more than the one week priced move27.5% of 236 weeks

Realized volatility is worked out from the daily closes the desk holds, not from the option chain.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Volatility Weather

On 28 Sep 2026, BURL's at the money IV runs from 52.3 percent at 4 days to 47.1 percent at 172 days.

Days to expiryAt the money IV
452.3%
1148.5%
1849.0%
2544.4%
3247.5%
5344.2%
8147.5%
17247.1%

Near expiries price more volatility than far ones, an inverted term structure.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Volatility Smile

On 28 Sep 2026, at the 32 day expiry, BURL's IV ten percent below the price sits 0.7 points above at the money IV.

Strike areaImplied volatilityAgainst at the money
10% below the price48.2%+0.7 points
At the money47.5%0.0 points
10% above the price45.5%-2.0 points

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Volatility Surface

On 28 Sep 2026, BURL's surface spans 9 expiries out to 172 days, with IV from 42.4 to 59.5 percent near the price.

FigureValue
Expiries captured9
Nearest expiry2 Oct 2026, 4 days
Farthest expiry19 Mar 2027, 172 days
Points within 10% of the price, 7 days out or more76
Lowest IV among them42.4%
Highest IV among them59.5%

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Expiry Ladder

On 28 Sep 2026, BURL has 9 captured expiries, from 2 Oct 2026 to 19 Mar 2027.

ExpiryDaysAt the money IVCall open interestPut open interest
2 Oct 2026452.3%1,5918,911
9 Oct 20261148.5%554442
16 Oct 20261849.0%2,8743,694
23 Oct 20262544.4%3644,225
30 Oct 20263247.5%1175,418
20 Nov 20265344.2%8175,264
18 Dec 20268147.5%1,397973
15 Jan 202710947.3%1,4341,141
19 Mar 202717247.1%568444

Open interest is summed over the strikes captured near the price on each expiry.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Strike Table

On 28 Sep 2026, BURL's largest open interest sits at the 220 strike, with 5,963 contracts across the captured expiries.

StrikeCall open interestPut open interestTotal
220975,8665,963
21074,6864,693
2904303,8124,242
21514,1144,115
2957752,0402,815
2601,3371,2872,624

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Since Yesterday

From 25 Sep 2026 to 28 Sep 2026, BURL's at the money IV moved from 43.1 percent to 47.5 percent.

Figure25 Sep28 SepChange
At the money IV43.1%47.5%+4.4 points
Open interest, strikes captured near the price32,66740,228+7,561
Put/call ratio, open interest2.943.14+0.20

Open interest changes cannot identify buyers or sellers.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Changed Hands

On 28 Sep 2026, 44,526 BURL option contracts traded, 1.1 times its own recent average.

FigureValue
Calls traded3,559
Puts traded40,967
Against its recent average1.1 times
Busier than16 of its last 20 trading days
Open interest, whole chain41,365 contracts
Volume to open interest1.08
Unusual volume flagYes, 1 contract traded well above open interest
Largest flagged contractThe 300 call expiring 16 Oct, 307 traded against 142 open

Traded volume and open interest are shown side by side and never combined. Open interest changes cannot identify buyers or sellers.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Positioning Replay

The replay holds 33 trading days of BURL's option positioning, from 11 Aug 2026 to 28 Sep 2026.

DateCloseNet dollar gammaTop call strikeTop put strike
11 Aug 2026358.83$516,937375375
21 Sep 2026251.80minus $7.15 million250265
28 Sep 2026266.39minus $12.3 million260265

Each frame restates one nightly capture. Net is calls minus puts, a convention, not who holds the contracts.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Read-out

On 25 Sep 2026 the desk's view of BURL was bearish, paper trading.

FigureValue
SideBearish at 20 trading days, signal on
Level above the close267.51, the swing high of 4 Sep 2026, a close past it runs against the view
Level below the close261.71, the swing low of 22 Sep 2026
The chartSits with the view
Strategy familyBear call spread (sell a call spread above the price)
Price targetNone. The desk has no price model.

The levels are prices the shares turned at on the chart, with the date of each.

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Rank by Timeframe

On 25 Sep 2026 BURL sat at the 13th percentile of the model's 45 trading day ranking, paper trading.

TimeframePercentileSide
10 trading days12 of 100Bearish
20 trading days1 of 100Bearish
45 trading days13 of 100Bearish

100 is the top of the ranking. A name in the middle three fifths is neutral.

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Timeframe Agreement

On 25 Sep 2026, 3 of 3 timeframes put BURL on the bearish side, paper trading.

GroupTimeframesSideOn that side
Near10 day, 20 dayBearish2 of 2
Long45 dayBearish1 of 1

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Signal History

On 25 Sep 2026 BURL's bearish signal had held 2 trading days in a row, paper trading.

Trading daySignal45 day percentile
25 Sep 2026Bearish13 of 100
24 Sep 2026Bearish14 of 100
23 Sep 2026None15 of 100
22 Sep 2026None16 of 100
21 Sep 2026Bearish71 of 100
18 Sep 2026None64 of 100
17 Sep 2026None63 of 100
16 Sep 2026None64 of 100

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Sector Split

On 25 Sep 2026, 27 of 106 Consumer Discretionary names were bullish and 33 were bearish, paper trading.

SectorNamesBullishBearishNeutral
Consumer Discretionary106273346

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Price Chart

BURL closed at 266.39 on 28 Sep 2026.

FigureValue
Last close266.39
Change over 5 trading days+5.8%
Change over 21 trading days-8.1%
Change over 63 trading days-15.2%
Change over 252 trading days+1.5%
52 week high378.33
52 week low226.85
20 day moving average249.17
50 day moving average308.00
200 day moving average310.85
RSI, 14 days49

Worked out from the desk's own daily bars, adjusted for share splits.

From the daily bars through 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Earnings Radar

BURL reports next on 27 Nov 2026, a date worked out from past quarters.

FigureValue
Next report27 Nov 2026
DateWorked out from past quarters

Earnings calendar as of 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Seasonality

In the 12 Septembers on record, BURL's average change was minus 3.2 percent, and it rose in 25.0 percent of them.

MonthAverage changeMiddle changeShare of years upYears
September-3.2%-2.5%25.0%12
October+0.1%-3.2%33.3%12
November+12.2%+12.9%84.6%13

Each figure is a month end to month end change in past years. A past month says nothing certain about the next one.

Monthly history through 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Headlines

The desk's news feeds carried 1 headline naming BURL in the 3 days to 28 Sep 2026.

FigureValue
Headlines in the window1
Latest28 Sep 2026

The titles are in the Headlines window, with the time each was published.

Headlines as of 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Questions

What is BURL's IV rank?
BURL's IV rank is 78 of 100 on 28 Sep 2026.
What move are BURL options pricing?
On 28 Sep 2026, BURL options priced a move of 12.4 percent down and 13.7 percent up by 30 Oct 2026.
Where are BURL's call wall and put wall?
On 28 Sep 2026, BURL's call wall is the 260 strike and its put wall is the 265 strike.
What was the latest Trade Card for BURL on the Free plan?
On 25 Sep 2026 the Trade Card for BURL was a bear call spread expiring 20 Nov 2026, paper trading.
When does BURL report earnings next?
BURL reports next on 27 Nov 2026, a date worked out from past quarters.

More Consumer Discretionary names

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