Industrials

Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) options and signal

Figures as of 28 Sep 2026

CAT is Caterpillar Inc., an Industrials name the model ranks every trading day. The options figures are from the close on 28 Sep 2026. The model's figures are from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind the latest, as the Free plan shows them. Every model figure is paper trading.

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At a glance

Figure	Value	Date
IV rank	99 of 100	28 Sep
At the money IV	49.3%	28 Sep
Priced move to 30 Oct	14.4% down, 14.4% up	28 Sep
Call wall and put wall	830 and 800	28 Sep
Signal and the desk's view	No signal, view neutral	25 Sep
Last close	819.95	28 Sep
Next report	29 Oct 2026	28 Sep

Options Snapshot

CAT's IV rank is 99 of 100 on 28 Sep 2026.

Figure	Value
IV rank	99 of 100
At the money IV	49.3%, near month, 32 days
Put/call ratio, open interest	1.05
Call open interest, strikes captured near the price	48,600 contracts
Put open interest, strikes captured near the price	51,200 contracts
Cost to trade at the money	Fair, 20.3% of the option's mid price

IV rank is where the at the money IV sits among CAT's own weekly readings, 0 the lowest and 100 the highest.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Priced Range

On 28 Sep 2026, CAT options priced a move of 14.4 percent down and 14.4 percent up by 30 Oct 2026.

Expiry	Days	Down	Up	Range
2 Oct 2026	4	4.1%	3.9%	786.55 to 851.55
9 Oct 2026	11	6.5%	7.2%	766.65 to 879.35
23 Oct 2026	25	9.9%	9.7%	738.45 to 899.75
30 Oct 2026	32	14.4%	14.4%	701.95 to 937.95
20 Nov 2026	53	16.7%	16.1%	682.95 to 951.95
18 Dec 2026	81	18.5%	19.9%	667.95 to 982.95
19 Feb 2027	144	24.8%	27.6%	616.95 to 1,045.95

The range is one standard deviation either side of the close of 819.95, as the option prices imply it.

A priced move restates option prices at the close and says nothing certain about where the price goes.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Gamma Map

On 28 Sep 2026, CAT's call wall is the 830 strike and its put wall is the 800 strike.

Figure	Value
Call wall, most open call gamma	830
Put wall, most open put gamma	800
Flip strike, where net gamma changes sign	812.61
Net dollar gamma, calls minus puts	$9.37 million
Total dollar gamma, both sides	$183.08 million
Close	819.95

Dollar gamma is stated for a one percent move in the price.

Net is calls minus puts under the standard convention, not a record of who holds the contracts.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Volatility History

On 28 Sep 2026, CAT's at the money IV is 49.3 percent against 20 day realized volatility of 25.6 percent.

Figure	Value
At the money IV	49.3%
Realized volatility, 20 trading days	25.6%
Realized volatility, 60 trading days	34.2%
IV against its own weekly record	High, in the top fifth
Weekly readings on record	865, from 8 Jan 2010
Weeks the price moved more than the one week priced move	30.2% of 252 weeks

Realized volatility is worked out from the daily closes the desk holds, not from the option chain.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

Open Volatility History in RingMaster The Volatility History guide

Volatility Weather

On 28 Sep 2026, CAT's at the money IV runs from 40.3 percent at 4 days to 40.3 percent at 144 days.

Days to expiry	At the money IV
4	40.3%
11	42.0%
18	38.1%
25	39.9%
39	46.1%
53	42.6%
81	41.3%
144	40.3%

Near and far expiries price about the same volatility, a flat term structure.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Volatility Smile

On 28 Sep 2026, at the 32 day expiry, CAT's IV ten percent below the price sits 0.1 points above at the money IV.

Strike area	Implied volatility	Against at the money
10% below the price	49.4%	+0.1 points
At the money	49.3%	0.0 points
10% above the price	49.0%	-0.3 points

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Volatility Surface

On 28 Sep 2026, CAT's surface spans 10 expiries out to 144 days, with IV from 36.6 to 50.6 percent near the price.

Figure	Value
Expiries captured	10
Nearest expiry	2 Oct 2026, 4 days
Farthest expiry	19 Feb 2027, 144 days
Points within 10% of the price, 7 days out or more	217
Lowest IV among them	36.6%
Highest IV among them	50.6%

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Expiry Ladder

On 28 Sep 2026, CAT has 10 captured expiries, from 2 Oct 2026 to 19 Feb 2027.

Expiry	Days	At the money IV	Call open interest	Put open interest
2 Oct 2026	4	40.3%	4,821	3,832
9 Oct 2026	11	42.0%	1,065	1,862
16 Oct 2026	18	38.1%	8,712	12,455
23 Oct 2026	25	39.9%	1,206	1,206
30 Oct 2026	32	49.3%	800	1,305
6 Nov 2026	39	46.1%	20	233
20 Nov 2026	53	42.6%	6,035	8,167
18 Dec 2026	81	41.3%	5,949	6,675
15 Jan 2027	109	39.8%	18,673	13,016
19 Feb 2027	144	40.3%	1,302	2,461

Open interest is summed over the strikes captured near the price on each expiry.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Strike Table

On 28 Sep 2026, CAT's largest open interest sits at the 800 strike, with 5,178 contracts across the captured expiries.

Strike	Call open interest	Put open interest	Total
800	2,231	2,947	5,178
900	3,600	709	4,309
700	667	3,159	3,826
720	1,727	1,853	3,580
760	441	2,894	3,335
740	843	2,489	3,332

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Since Yesterday

From 25 Sep 2026 to 28 Sep 2026, CAT's at the money IV moved from 37.6 percent to 49.3 percent.

Figure	25 Sep	28 Sep	Change
At the money IV	37.6%	49.3%	+11.7 points
Open interest, strikes captured near the price	102,627	99,795	-2,832
Put/call ratio, open interest	1.08	1.05	-0.03

Open interest changes cannot identify buyers or sellers.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Changed Hands

On 28 Sep 2026, 24,002 CAT option contracts traded, 1.1 times its own recent average.

Figure	Value
Calls traded	11,754
Puts traded	12,248
Against its recent average	1.1 times
Busier than	5 of its last 20 trading days
Open interest, whole chain	176,924 contracts
Volume to open interest	0.14
Unusual volume flag	No

Traded volume and open interest are shown side by side and never combined. Open interest changes cannot identify buyers or sellers.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Positioning Replay

The replay holds 33 trading days of CAT's option positioning, from 11 Aug 2026 to 28 Sep 2026.

Date	Close	Net dollar gamma	Top call strike	Top put strike
11 Aug 2026	843.37	minus $15.01 million	835	800
21 Sep 2026	816.50	minus $1.12 million	900	800
28 Sep 2026	819.95	$9.37 million	830	800

Each frame restates one nightly capture. Net is calls minus puts, a convention, not who holds the contracts.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Read-out

On 25 Sep 2026 the desk's view of CAT was neutral, paper trading.

Figure	Value
Side	Neutral at 45 trading days, no signal
Level above the close	827.81, the swing high of 21 Sep 2026
Level below the close	794.20, the swing low of 24 Sep 2026
Strategy family	Iron condor (sell both sides, defined risk)
Price target	None. The desk has no price model.

The levels are prices the shares turned at on the chart, with the date of each.

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Rank by Timeframe

On 25 Sep 2026 CAT sat at the 62nd percentile of the model's 45 trading day ranking, paper trading.

Timeframe	Percentile	Side
10 trading days	99 of 100	Bullish
20 trading days	84 of 100	Bullish
45 trading days	62 of 100	Neutral

100 is the top of the ranking. A name in the middle three fifths is neutral.

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Timeframe Agreement

On 25 Sep 2026 CAT's near timeframes were bullish and its long timeframe was neutral, paper trading.

Group	Timeframes	Side	On that side
Near	10 day, 20 day	Bullish	2 of 2
Long	45 day	Neutral	0 of 1

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Signal History

On 25 Sep 2026 CAT had carried no signal for 11 trading days, paper trading.

Trading day	Signal	45 day percentile
25 Sep 2026	None	62 of 100
24 Sep 2026	None	88 of 100
23 Sep 2026	None	49 of 100
22 Sep 2026	None	49 of 100
21 Sep 2026	None	89 of 100
18 Sep 2026	None	93 of 100
17 Sep 2026	None	94 of 100
16 Sep 2026	None	73 of 100

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Sector Split

On 25 Sep 2026, 51 of 147 Industrials names were bullish and 37 were bearish, paper trading.

Sector	Names	Bullish	Bearish	Neutral
Industrials	147	51	37	59

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Price Chart

CAT closed at 819.95 on 28 Sep 2026.

Figure	Value
Last close	819.95
Change over 5 trading days	+0.4%
Change over 21 trading days	+0.4%
Change over 63 trading days	-20.6%
Change over 252 trading days	+76.8%
52 week high	1,073.46
52 week low	462.38
20 day moving average	804.29
50 day moving average	828.03
200 day moving average	790.69
RSI, 14 days	52

Worked out from the desk's own daily bars, adjusted for share splits.

From the daily bars through 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Earnings Radar

CAT reports next on 29 Oct 2026, and options priced an earnings move of 10.7 percent through 30 Oct 2026.

Figure	Value
Next report	29 Oct 2026, before the open
Date	Confirmed by the company
Priced earnings move	10.7%, a straddle of $87.97 at the 820 strike, expiring 30 Oct 2026
Move after the report of 4 Aug 2026	+5.6%
Move after the report of 30 Apr 2026	+9.9%
Move after the report of 29 Jan 2026	+3.4%
Move after the report of 29 Oct 2025	+11.6%

The priced earnings move is the straddle's cost over the share price. It restates option prices and says nothing certain about the report.

Earnings calendar as of 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Short Volume

On 25 Sep 2026, 55.2 percent of CAT's reported volume at the covered venues was marked short.

Figure	Value
Short sale share, 25 Sep	55.2%
Five day average	55.6%
52 week median	52.1%

Short sale volume counts trades marked short at the covered venues, mostly off exchange. It is not the same as short interest.

Short volume as of 25 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Seasonality

In the 36 Septembers on record, CAT's average change was minus 0.9 percent, and it rose in 47.2 percent of them.

Month	Average change	Middle change	Share of years up	Years
September	-0.9%	-1.3%	47.2%	36
October	+2.0%	+0.6%	55.6%	36
November	+4.2%	+5.5%	72.2%	36

Each figure is a month end to month end change in past years. A past month says nothing certain about the next one.

Monthly history through 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Headlines

The desk's news feeds carried 4 headlines naming CAT in the 3 days to 28 Sep 2026.

Figure	Value
Headlines in the window	4
Latest	28 Sep 2026

The titles are in the Headlines window, with the time each was published.

Headlines as of 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Questions

What is CAT's IV rank?: CAT's IV rank is 99 of 100 on 28 Sep 2026.
What move are CAT options pricing?: On 28 Sep 2026, CAT options priced a move of 14.4 percent down and 14.4 percent up by 30 Oct 2026.
Where are CAT's call wall and put wall?: On 28 Sep 2026, CAT's call wall is the 830 strike and its put wall is the 800 strike.
What was the desk's latest view of CAT on the Free plan?: On 25 Sep 2026 the desk's view of CAT was neutral, paper trading.
When does CAT report earnings next?: CAT reports next on 29 Oct 2026, and options priced an earnings move of 10.7 percent through 30 Oct 2026.

More Industrials names

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