Materials

CF Industries Holdings Inc (CF) options and signal

Figures as of 28 Sep 2026

CF is CF Industries Holdings Inc, a Materials name the model ranks every trading day. The options figures are from the close on 28 Sep 2026. The model's figures are from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind the latest, as the Free plan shows them. Every model figure is paper trading.

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At a glance

Figure	Value	Date
Trade Card	Bear call spread, 18 Dec	25 Sep
IV rank	87 of 100	28 Sep
At the money IV	48.2%	28 Sep
Priced move to 30 Oct	13.8% down, 14.5% up	28 Sep
Call wall and put wall	130 and 115	28 Sep
Signal and the desk's view	Bearish signal, view bearish	25 Sep
Last close	115.51	28 Sep
Next report	4 Nov 2026	28 Sep

Trade Cards

On 25 Sep 2026 the Trade Card for CF was a bear call spread expiring 18 Dec 2026, paper trading.

Figure	Value
Signal	Bearish, over 45 trading days
Strategy	Bear call spread, credit
Legs	Sell the 130 call, Buy the 150 call
Expiry	18 Dec 2026, 84 days to expiry
Limit	A credit of at least $2.58
Probability of profit	67%, the option market's odds at expiry, from delta
Max loss	$1,742 per contract
Max profit	$258 per contract
Breakeven	132.58
IV rank at that expiry	79 of 100

Probability of profit is the option market's own odds from delta, not the model's.

Priced on the option chain at the close on 25 Sep 2026.

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Options Snapshot

CF's IV rank is 87 of 100 on 28 Sep 2026.

Figure	Value
IV rank	87 of 100
At the money IV	48.2%, near month, 32 days
Put/call ratio, open interest	0.79
Call open interest, strikes captured near the price	31,200 contracts
Put open interest, strikes captured near the price	24,800 contracts
Cost to trade at the money	Fair, 26.2% of the option's mid price

IV rank is where the at the money IV sits among CF's own weekly readings, 0 the lowest and 100 the highest.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Priced Range

On 28 Sep 2026, CF options priced a move of 13.8 percent down and 14.5 percent up by 30 Oct 2026.

Expiry	Days	Down	Up	Range
2 Oct 2026	4	5.0%	4.9%	109.78 to 121.12
9 Oct 2026	11	7.5%	8.7%	106.79 to 125.51
23 Oct 2026	25	11.3%	12.5%	102.41 to 129.91
30 Oct 2026	32	13.8%	14.5%	99.61 to 132.21
20 Nov 2026	53	17.1%	17.7%	95.81 to 135.91
18 Dec 2026	81	20.3%	21.4%	92.01 to 140.21
19 Feb 2027	144	28.8%	30.6%	82.21 to 150.81

The range is one standard deviation either side of the close of 115.51, as the option prices imply it.

A priced move restates option prices at the close and says nothing certain about where the price goes.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Gamma Map

On 28 Sep 2026, CF's call wall is the 130 strike and its put wall is the 115 strike.

Figure	Value
Call wall, most open call gamma	130
Put wall, most open put gamma	115
Net dollar gamma, calls minus puts	minus $1.45 million
Total dollar gamma, both sides	$10.85 million
Close	115.51

Dollar gamma is stated for a one percent move in the price.

Net is calls minus puts under the standard convention, not a record of who holds the contracts.

Net gamma changes sign at 5 strikes, so no single flip strike is named.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Volatility History

On 28 Sep 2026, CF's at the money IV is 48.2 percent against 20 day realized volatility of 42.2 percent.

Figure	Value
At the money IV	48.2%
Realized volatility, 20 trading days	42.2%
Realized volatility, 60 trading days	40.3%
IV against its own weekly record	High, in the top fifth
Weekly readings on record	865, from 8 Jan 2010
Weeks the price moved more than the one week priced move	29.4% of 252 weeks

Realized volatility is worked out from the daily closes the desk holds, not from the option chain.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Volatility Weather

On 28 Sep 2026, CF's at the money IV runs from 47.8 percent at 4 days to 48.0 percent at 144 days.

Days to expiry	At the money IV
4	47.8%
11	44.9%
18	46.9%
25	48.0%
39	51.7%
53	45.9%
81	45.7%
144	48.0%

Near and far expiries price about the same volatility, a flat term structure.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Volatility Smile

On 28 Sep 2026, at the 32 day expiry, CF's IV ten percent below the price sits 0.4 points below at the money IV.

Strike area	Implied volatility	Against at the money
10% below the price	47.8%	-0.4 points
At the money	48.2%	0.0 points
10% above the price	49.4%	+1.3 points

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Volatility Surface

On 28 Sep 2026, CF's surface spans 10 expiries out to 144 days, with IV from 42.4 to 56.4 percent near the price.

Figure	Value
Expiries captured	10
Nearest expiry	2 Oct 2026, 4 days
Farthest expiry	19 Feb 2027, 144 days
Points within 10% of the price, 7 days out or more	95
Lowest IV among them	42.4%
Highest IV among them	56.4%

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Expiry Ladder

On 28 Sep 2026, CF has 10 captured expiries, from 2 Oct 2026 to 19 Feb 2027.

Expiry	Days	At the money IV	Call open interest	Put open interest
2 Oct 2026	4	47.8%	591	860
9 Oct 2026	11	44.9%	346	490
16 Oct 2026	18	46.9%	4,415	6,757
23 Oct 2026	25	48.0%	387	110
30 Oct 2026	32	48.2%	462	456
6 Nov 2026	39	51.7%	289	284
20 Nov 2026	53	45.9%	7,428	7,685
18 Dec 2026	81	45.7%	4,363	1,941
15 Jan 2027	109	46.2%	12,454	5,992
19 Feb 2027	144	48.0%	416	264

Open interest is summed over the strikes captured near the price on each expiry.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Strike Table

On 28 Sep 2026, CF's largest open interest sits at the 105 strike, with 5,543 contracts across the captured expiries.

Strike	Call open interest	Put open interest	Total
105	238	5,305	5,543
130	4,228	552	4,780
110	966	3,655	4,621
140	4,125	339	4,464
120	1,899	1,800	3,699
150	3,514	17	3,531

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Since Yesterday

From 25 Sep 2026 to 28 Sep 2026, CF's at the money IV moved from 44.2 percent to 48.2 percent.

Figure	25 Sep	28 Sep	Change
At the money IV	44.2%	48.2%	+3.9 points
Open interest, strikes captured near the price	57,091	55,990	-1,101
Put/call ratio, open interest	0.80	0.80	-0.00

Open interest changes cannot identify buyers or sellers.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Changed Hands

On 28 Sep 2026, 8,916 CF option contracts traded, 1.3 times its own recent average.

Figure	Value
Calls traded	5,620
Puts traded	3,296
Against its recent average	1.3 times
Busier than	18 of its last 20 trading days
Open interest, whole chain	62,907 contracts
Volume to open interest	0.14
Unusual volume flag	No

Traded volume and open interest are shown side by side and never combined. Open interest changes cannot identify buyers or sellers.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Positioning Replay

The replay holds 33 trading days of CF's option positioning, from 11 Aug 2026 to 28 Sep 2026.

Date	Close	Net dollar gamma	Top call strike	Top put strike
11 Aug 2026	117.80	$1.68 million	120	110
21 Sep 2026	123.27	$32,544	140	115
28 Sep 2026	115.51	minus $1.45 million	130	115

Each frame restates one nightly capture. Net is calls minus puts, a convention, not who holds the contracts.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Read-out

On 25 Sep 2026 the desk's view of CF was bearish, paper trading.

Figure	Value
Side	Bearish at 45 trading days, signal on
Level above the close	122.19, the swing high of 27 Aug 2026, a close past it runs against the view
Level below the close	113.81, the swing low of 12 Aug 2026
The chart	Sits against the view
Strategy family	Bear call spread (sell a call spread above the price)
Price target	None. The desk has no price model.

The levels are prices the shares turned at on the chart, with the date of each.

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Rank by Timeframe

On 25 Sep 2026 CF sat at the 5th percentile of the model's 45 trading day ranking, paper trading.

Timeframe	Percentile	Side
10 trading days	14 of 100	Bearish
20 trading days	8 of 100	Bearish
45 trading days	5 of 100	Bearish

100 is the top of the ranking. A name in the middle three fifths is neutral.

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Timeframe Agreement

On 25 Sep 2026, 3 of 3 timeframes put CF on the bearish side, paper trading.

Group	Timeframes	Side	On that side
Near	10 day, 20 day	Bearish	2 of 2
Long	45 day	Bearish	1 of 1

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Signal History

On 25 Sep 2026 CF's bearish signal had held 2 trading days in a row, paper trading.

Trading day	Signal	45 day percentile
25 Sep 2026	Bearish	5 of 100
24 Sep 2026	Bearish	4 of 100
23 Sep 2026	None	7 of 100
22 Sep 2026	None	6 of 100
21 Sep 2026	Bearish	2 of 100
18 Sep 2026	Bearish	4 of 100
17 Sep 2026	Bearish	2 of 100
16 Sep 2026	Bearish	3 of 100

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Sector Split

On 25 Sep 2026, 35 of 62 Materials names were bullish and 11 were bearish, paper trading.

Sector	Names	Bullish	Bearish	Neutral
Materials	62	35	11	16

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Price Chart

CF closed at 115.51 on 28 Sep 2026.

Figure	Value
Last close	115.51
Change over 5 trading days	-6.3%
Change over 21 trading days	-8.1%
Change over 63 trading days	+9.6%
Change over 252 trading days	+28.8%
52 week high	141.96
52 week low	75.42
20 day moving average	129.50
50 day moving average	125.22
200 day moving average	111.75
RSI, 14 days	36

Worked out from the desk's own daily bars, adjusted for share splits.

From the daily bars through 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Earnings Radar

CF reports next on 4 Nov 2026, a date confirmed by the company.

Figure	Value
Next report	4 Nov 2026, after the close
Date	Confirmed by the company
Move after the report of 5 Aug 2026	+0.0%
Move after the report of 6 May 2026	-0.9%
Move after the report of 18 Feb 2026	+3.8%
Move after the report of 5 Nov 2025	-4.2%

Earnings calendar as of 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Short Volume

On 25 Sep 2026, 34.8 percent of CF's reported volume at the covered venues was marked short.

Figure	Value
Short sale share, 25 Sep	34.8%
Five day average	36.1%
52 week median	62.2%

Short sale volume counts trades marked short at the covered venues, mostly off exchange. It is not the same as short interest.

Short volume as of 25 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Seasonality

In the 20 Septembers on record, CF's average change was plus 0.9 percent, and it rose in 70.0 percent of them.

Month	Average change	Middle change	Share of years up	Years
September	+0.9%	+4.2%	70.0%	20
October	+1.1%	-3.5%	42.9%	21
November	+2.3%	+1.9%	61.9%	21

Each figure is a month end to month end change in past years. A past month says nothing certain about the next one.

Monthly history through 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Questions

What is CF's IV rank?: CF's IV rank is 87 of 100 on 28 Sep 2026.
What move are CF options pricing?: On 28 Sep 2026, CF options priced a move of 13.8 percent down and 14.5 percent up by 30 Oct 2026.
Where are CF's call wall and put wall?: On 28 Sep 2026, CF's call wall is the 130 strike and its put wall is the 115 strike.
What was the latest Trade Card for CF on the Free plan?: On 25 Sep 2026 the Trade Card for CF was a bear call spread expiring 18 Dec 2026, paper trading.
When does CF report earnings next?: CF reports next on 4 Nov 2026, a date confirmed by the company.

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