Energy

Canadian Natural Resources Limited (CNQ) options and signal

Figures as of 28 Sep 2026

CNQ is Canadian Natural Resources Limited, an Energy name the model ranks every trading day. The options figures are from the close on 28 Sep 2026. The model's figures are from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind the latest, as the Free plan shows them. Every model figure is paper trading.

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At a glance

Figure	Value	Date
IV rank	91 of 100	28 Sep
At the money IV	47.0%	28 Sep
Priced move to 30 Oct	13.2% down, 10.9% up	28 Sep
Call wall and put wall	50 and 46	28 Sep
Signal and the desk's view	No signal, view neutral	25 Sep
Last close	47.55	28 Sep
Next report	5 Nov 2026	28 Sep

Options Snapshot

CNQ's IV rank is 91 of 100 on 28 Sep 2026.

Figure	Value
IV rank	91 of 100
At the money IV	47.0%, near month, 32 days
Put/call ratio, open interest	0.36
Call open interest, strikes captured near the price	77,900 contracts
Put open interest, strikes captured near the price	27,800 contracts
Cost to trade at the money	Wide, 80.5% of the option's mid price

IV rank is where the at the money IV sits among CNQ's own weekly readings, 0 the lowest and 100 the highest.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Priced Range

On 28 Sep 2026, CNQ options priced a move of 13.2 percent down and 10.9 percent up by 30 Oct 2026.

Expiry	Days	Down	Up	Range
2 Oct 2026	4	5.0%	4.5%	45.16 to 49.67
9 Oct 2026	11	7.1%	8.1%	44.19 to 51.40
16 Oct 2026	18	8.2%	7.6%	43.65 to 51.17
30 Oct 2026	32	13.2%	10.9%	41.28 to 52.74
20 Nov 2026	53	12.4%	13.5%	41.67 to 53.96
18 Dec 2026	81	17.4%	16.8%	39.30 to 55.53
19 Mar 2027	172	22.5%	25.9%	36.85 to 59.85

The range is one standard deviation either side of the close of 47.55, as the option prices imply it.

A priced move restates option prices at the close and says nothing certain about where the price goes.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Gamma Map

On 28 Sep 2026, CNQ's call wall is the 50 strike and its put wall is the 46 strike.

Figure	Value
Call wall, most open call gamma	50
Put wall, most open put gamma	46
Flip strike, where net gamma changes sign	47.98
Net dollar gamma, calls minus puts	$3.01 million
Total dollar gamma, both sides	$8.46 million
Close	47.55

Dollar gamma is stated for a one percent move in the price.

Net is calls minus puts under the standard convention, not a record of who holds the contracts.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Volatility History

On 28 Sep 2026, CNQ's at the money IV is 47.0 percent against 20 day realized volatility of 26.9 percent.

Figure	Value
At the money IV	47.0%
Realized volatility, 20 trading days	26.9%
Realized volatility, 60 trading days	30.5%
IV against its own weekly record	High, in the top fifth
Weekly readings on record	848, from 8 Jan 2010
Weeks the price moved more than the one week priced move	34.5% of 235 weeks

Realized volatility is worked out from the daily closes the desk holds, not from the option chain.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Volatility Weather

On 28 Sep 2026, CNQ's at the money IV runs from 47.9 percent at 4 days to 35.4 percent at 172 days.

Days to expiry	At the money IV
4	47.9%
11	50.3%
18	43.5%
25	41.9%
32	47.0%
53	43.1%
81	35.6%
172	35.4%

Near expiries price more volatility than far ones, an inverted term structure.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Volatility Smile

On 28 Sep 2026, at the 32 day expiry, CNQ's IV ten percent below the price sits 8.8 points above at the money IV.

Strike area	Implied volatility	Against at the money
10% below the price	55.8%	+8.8 points
At the money	47.0%	0.0 points
10% above the price	37.9%	-9.1 points

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Volatility Surface

On 28 Sep 2026, CNQ's surface spans 9 expiries out to 172 days, with IV from 31.8 to 80.3 percent near the price.

Figure	Value
Expiries captured	9
Nearest expiry	2 Oct 2026, 4 days
Farthest expiry	19 Mar 2027, 172 days
Points within 10% of the price, 7 days out or more	56
Lowest IV among them	31.8%
Highest IV among them	80.3%

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Expiry Ladder

On 28 Sep 2026, CNQ has 9 captured expiries, from 2 Oct 2026 to 19 Mar 2027.

Expiry	Days	At the money IV	Call open interest	Put open interest
2 Oct 2026	4	47.9%	408	727
9 Oct 2026	11	50.3%	195	4,255
16 Oct 2026	18	43.5%	5,259	4,029
23 Oct 2026	25	41.9%	60	35
30 Oct 2026	32	47.0%	83	36
20 Nov 2026	53	43.1%	1,343	1,231
18 Dec 2026	81	35.6%	6,111	2,813
15 Jan 2027	109	38.4%	63,466	14,395
19 Mar 2027	172	35.4%	1,020	270

Open interest is summed over the strikes captured near the price on each expiry.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Strike Table

On 28 Sep 2026, CNQ's largest open interest sits at the 40 strike, with 18,645 contracts across the captured expiries.

Strike	Call open interest	Put open interest	Total
40	17,270	1,375	18,645
52.5	15,866	1,929	17,795
50	13,008	1,785	14,793
35	8,395	1,863	10,258
30	366	6,560	6,926
45	3,522	2,897	6,419

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Since Yesterday

From 25 Sep 2026 to 28 Sep 2026, CNQ's at the money IV moved from 45.6 percent to 47.0 percent.

Figure	25 Sep	28 Sep	Change
At the money IV	45.6%	47.0%	+1.4 points
Open interest, strikes captured near the price	105,268	105,736	+468
Put/call ratio, open interest	0.35	0.36	+0.00

Open interest changes cannot identify buyers or sellers.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Changed Hands

On 28 Sep 2026, 2,973 CNQ option contracts traded, 0.4 times its own recent average.

Figure	Value
Calls traded	1,601
Puts traded	1,372
Against its recent average	0.4 times
Busier than	2 of its last 20 trading days
Open interest, whole chain	108,330 contracts
Volume to open interest	0.03
Unusual volume flag	No

Traded volume and open interest are shown side by side and never combined. Open interest changes cannot identify buyers or sellers.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Positioning Replay

The replay holds 33 trading days of CNQ's option positioning, from 11 Aug 2026 to 28 Sep 2026.

Date	Close	Net dollar gamma	Top call strike	Top put strike
11 Aug 2026	47.61	$7.7 million	50	47.5
21 Sep 2026	48.28	$2.84 million	50	52.5
28 Sep 2026	47.55	$3.01 million	50	46

Each frame restates one nightly capture. Net is calls minus puts, a convention, not who holds the contracts.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Read-out

On 25 Sep 2026 the desk's view of CNQ was neutral, paper trading.

Figure	Value
Side	Neutral at 45 trading days, no signal
Level above the close	48.63, the swing high of 24 Sep 2026
Level below the close	47.18, the swing low of 22 Sep 2026
Strategy family	Iron condor (sell both sides, defined risk)
Price target	None. The desk has no price model.

The levels are prices the shares turned at on the chart, with the date of each.

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Rank by Timeframe

On 25 Sep 2026 CNQ sat at the 21st percentile of the model's 45 trading day ranking, paper trading.

Timeframe	Percentile	Side
10 trading days	65 of 100	Neutral
20 trading days	7 of 100	Bearish
45 trading days	21 of 100	Neutral

100 is the top of the ranking. A name in the middle three fifths is neutral.

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Timeframe Agreement

On 25 Sep 2026 CNQ's near timeframes were bearish and its long timeframe was neutral, paper trading.

Group	Timeframes	Side	On that side
Near	10 day, 20 day	Bearish	1 of 2
Long	45 day	Neutral	0 of 1

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Signal History

On 25 Sep 2026 CNQ had carried no signal for 8 trading days, paper trading.

Trading day	Signal	45 day percentile
25 Sep 2026	None	21 of 100
24 Sep 2026	None	26 of 100
23 Sep 2026	None	47 of 100
22 Sep 2026	None	46 of 100
21 Sep 2026	None	9 of 100
18 Sep 2026	None	14 of 100
17 Sep 2026	None	8 of 100
16 Sep 2026	None	39 of 100

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Sector Split

On 25 Sep 2026, 17 of 56 Energy names were bullish and 33 were bearish, paper trading.

Sector	Names	Bullish	Bearish	Neutral
Energy	56	17	33	6

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Price Chart

CNQ closed at 47.55 on 28 Sep 2026.

Figure	Value
Last close	47.55
Change over 5 trading days	-1.5%
Change over 21 trading days	-4.5%
Change over 63 trading days	+21.0%
Change over 252 trading days	+46.4%
52 week high	52.31
52 week low	29.68
20 day moving average	49.86
50 day moving average	48.43
200 day moving average	43.70
RSI, 14 days	41

Worked out from the desk's own daily bars, adjusted for share splits.

From the daily bars through 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Earnings Radar

CNQ reports next on 5 Nov 2026, a date confirmed by the company.

Figure	Value
Next report	5 Nov 2026, before the open
Date	Confirmed by the company
Move after the report of 6 Aug 2026	+0.1%
Move after the report of 10 Jul 2026	+3.0%
Move after the report of 5 Mar 2026	+2.6%
Move after the report of 4 Jan 2026	-6.1%

Earnings calendar as of 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Seasonality

In the 26 Septembers on record, CNQ's average change was minus 1.7 percent, and it rose in 50.0 percent of them.

Month	Average change	Middle change	Share of years up	Years
September	-1.7%	+0.5%	50.0%	26
October	+1.6%	+0.6%	53.8%	26
November	+1.3%	+3.6%	53.8%	26

Each figure is a month end to month end change in past years. A past month says nothing certain about the next one.

Monthly history through 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Questions

What is CNQ's IV rank?: CNQ's IV rank is 91 of 100 on 28 Sep 2026.
What move are CNQ options pricing?: On 28 Sep 2026, CNQ options priced a move of 13.2 percent down and 10.9 percent up by 30 Oct 2026.
Where are CNQ's call wall and put wall?: On 28 Sep 2026, CNQ's call wall is the 50 strike and its put wall is the 46 strike.
What was the desk's latest view of CNQ on the Free plan?: On 25 Sep 2026 the desk's view of CNQ was neutral, paper trading.
When does CNQ report earnings next?: CNQ reports next on 5 Nov 2026, a date confirmed by the company.

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