Consumer Discretionary

CarMax Inc. (KMX) options and signal

Figures as of 28 Sep 2026

KMX is CarMax Inc., a Consumer Discretionary name the model ranks every trading day. The options figures are from the close on 28 Sep 2026. The model's figures are from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind the latest, as the Free plan shows them. Every model figure is paper trading.

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At a glance

Figure	Value	Date
IV rank	99 of 100	28 Sep
At the money IV	67.9%	28 Sep
Priced move to 16 Oct	17.6% down, 15.3% up	28 Sep
Call wall and put wall	70 and 55	28 Sep
Signal and the desk's view	No signal, view neutral	25 Sep
Last close	56.55	28 Sep
Next report	29 Sep 2026	28 Sep

Options Snapshot

KMX's IV rank is 99 of 100 on 28 Sep 2026.

Figure	Value
IV rank	99 of 100
At the money IV	67.9%, near month, 18 days
Put/call ratio, open interest	0.53
Call open interest, strikes captured near the price	22,100 contracts
Put open interest, strikes captured near the price	11,800 contracts
Cost to trade at the money	Tight, 11.9% of the option's mid price

IV rank is where the at the money IV sits among KMX's own weekly readings, 0 the lowest and 100 the highest.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Priced Range

On 28 Sep 2026, KMX options priced a move of 17.6 percent down and 15.3 percent up by 16 Oct 2026.

Expiry	Days	Down	Up	Range
16 Oct 2026	18	17.6%	15.3%	46.61 to 65.18
20 Nov 2026	53	21.2%	21.0%	44.55 to 68.45
18 Dec 2026	81	25.8%	27.4%	41.95 to 72.05
15 Jan 2027	109	27.8%	29.2%	40.85 to 73.05
16 Apr 2027	200	35.4%	42.3%	36.55 to 80.45

The range is one standard deviation either side of the close of 56.55, as the option prices imply it.

A priced move restates option prices at the close and says nothing certain about where the price goes.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Gamma Map

On 28 Sep 2026, KMX's call wall is the 70 strike and its put wall is the 55 strike.

Figure	Value
Call wall, most open call gamma	70
Put wall, most open put gamma	55
Net dollar gamma, calls minus puts	$674,048
Total dollar gamma, both sides	$1.99 million
Close	56.55

Dollar gamma is stated for a one percent move in the price.

Net is calls minus puts under the standard convention, not a record of who holds the contracts.

Net gamma changes sign at 4 strikes, so no single flip strike is named.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Volatility History

On 28 Sep 2026, KMX's at the money IV is 67.9 percent against 20 day realized volatility of 26.9 percent.

Figure	Value
At the money IV	67.9%
Realized volatility, 20 trading days	26.9%
Realized volatility, 60 trading days	31.0%
IV against its own weekly record	High, in the top fifth
Weekly readings on record	849, from 8 Jan 2010
Weeks the price moved more than the one week priced move	27.5% of 236 weeks

Realized volatility is worked out from the daily closes the desk holds, not from the option chain.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Volatility Weather

On 28 Sep 2026, KMX's at the money IV runs from 67.9 percent at 18 days to 47.8 percent at 200 days.

Days to expiry	At the money IV
18	67.9%
53	56.0%
81	53.2%
109	52.7%
200	47.8%

Near expiries price more volatility than far ones, an inverted term structure.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Volatility Smile

On 28 Sep 2026, at the 53 day expiry, KMX's IV ten percent below the price sits 3.7 points above at the money IV.

Strike area	Implied volatility	Against at the money
10% below the price	59.7%	+3.7 points
At the money	56.0%	0.0 points
10% above the price	56.7%	+0.7 points

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Volatility Surface

On 28 Sep 2026, KMX's surface spans 5 expiries out to 200 days, with IV from 47.7 to 78.9 percent near the price.

Figure	Value
Expiries captured	5
Nearest expiry	16 Oct 2026, 18 days
Farthest expiry	16 Apr 2027, 200 days
Points within 10% of the price, 7 days out or more	20
Lowest IV among them	47.7%
Highest IV among them	78.9%

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Expiry Ladder

On 28 Sep 2026, KMX has 5 captured expiries, from 16 Oct 2026 to 16 Apr 2027.

Expiry	Days	At the money IV	Call open interest	Put open interest
16 Oct 2026	18	67.9%	12,024	5,019
20 Nov 2026	53	56.0%	836	493
18 Dec 2026	81	53.2%	114	536
15 Jan 2027	109	52.7%	9,012	5,451
16 Apr 2027	200	47.8%	155	283

Open interest is summed over the strikes captured near the price on each expiry.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Strike Table

On 28 Sep 2026, KMX's largest open interest sits at the 70 strike, with 6,069 contracts across the captured expiries.

Strike	Call open interest	Put open interest	Total
70	5,839	230	6,069
42.5	1,473	1,952	3,425
50	1,371	893	2,264
60	1,434	689	2,123
45	981	1,035	2,016
30	96	1,783	1,879

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Since Yesterday

From 25 Sep 2026 to 28 Sep 2026, KMX's at the money IV moved from 65.8 percent to 67.9 percent.

Figure	25 Sep	28 Sep	Change
At the money IV	65.8%	67.9%	+2.2 points
Open interest, strikes captured near the price	33,186	33,923	+737
Put/call ratio, open interest	0.51	0.53	+0.02

Open interest changes cannot identify buyers or sellers.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Changed Hands

On 28 Sep 2026, 19,470 KMX option contracts traded, 7.3 times its own recent average.

Figure	Value
Calls traded	7,429
Puts traded	12,041
Against its recent average	7.3 times
Busier than	12 of its last 12 trading days
Open interest, whole chain	37,463 contracts
Volume to open interest	0.52
Unusual volume flag	Yes, 6 contracts traded well above open interest
Largest flagged contract	The 55 put expiring 16 Oct, 2,665 traded against 404 open

Traded volume and open interest are shown side by side and never combined. Open interest changes cannot identify buyers or sellers.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Positioning Replay

The replay holds 25 trading days of KMX's option positioning, from 11 Aug 2026 to 28 Sep 2026.

Date	Close	Net dollar gamma	Top call strike	Top put strike
11 Aug 2026	58.18	$333,812	60	57.5
21 Sep 2026	57.86	$244,446	67.5	50
28 Sep 2026	56.55	$674,048	70	55

Each frame restates one nightly capture. Net is calls minus puts, a convention, not who holds the contracts.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Read-out

On 25 Sep 2026 the desk's view of KMX was neutral, paper trading.

Figure	Value
Side	Neutral at 45 trading days, no signal
Level above the close	59.00, the swing high of 9 Sep 2026
Level below the close	54.90, the swing low of 23 Sep 2026
Strategy family	Iron condor (sell both sides, defined risk)
Price target	None. The desk has no price model.

The levels are prices the shares turned at on the chart, with the date of each.

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Rank by Timeframe

On 25 Sep 2026 KMX sat at the 39th percentile of the model's 45 trading day ranking, paper trading.

Timeframe	Percentile	Side
10 trading days	24 of 100	Neutral
20 trading days	46 of 100	Neutral
45 trading days	39 of 100	Neutral

100 is the top of the ranking. A name in the middle three fifths is neutral.

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Timeframe Agreement

On 25 Sep 2026 KMX's near timeframes were neutral and its long timeframe was neutral, paper trading.

Group	Timeframes	Side	On that side
Near	10 day, 20 day	Neutral	0 of 2
Long	45 day	Neutral	0 of 1

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Signal History

On 25 Sep 2026 KMX had carried no signal for at least 10 trading days, paper trading.

Trading day	Signal	45 day percentile
25 Sep 2026	None	39 of 100
24 Sep 2026	None	60 of 100
23 Sep 2026	None	66 of 100
22 Sep 2026	None	59 of 100
21 Sep 2026	None	37 of 100
18 Sep 2026	None	42 of 100
17 Sep 2026	None	27 of 100
16 Sep 2026	None	56 of 100

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Sector Split

On 25 Sep 2026, 27 of 106 Consumer Discretionary names were bullish and 33 were bearish, paper trading.

Sector	Names	Bullish	Bearish	Neutral
Consumer Discretionary	106	27	33	46

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Price Chart

KMX closed at 56.55 on 28 Sep 2026.

Figure	Value
Last close	56.55
Change over 5 trading days	-2.3%
Change over 21 trading days	-9.7%
Change over 63 trading days	+6.4%
Change over 252 trading days	+24.0%
52 week high	65.28
52 week low	30.26
20 day moving average	59.53
50 day moving average	59.38
200 day moving average	47.89
RSI, 14 days	40

Worked out from the desk's own daily bars, adjusted for share splits.

From the daily bars through 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Earnings Radar

KMX reports next on 29 Sep 2026, and options priced an earnings move of 13.0 percent through 16 Oct 2026.

Figure	Value
Next report	29 Sep 2026, before the open
Date	Confirmed by the company
Priced earnings move	13.0%, a straddle of $7.35 at the 57.5 strike, expiring 16 Oct 2026
Move after the report of 28 Jun 2026	+0.7%
Move after the report of 30 Mar 2026	+4.0%
Move after the report of 29 Dec 2025	+0.4%
Move after the report of 20 Jun 2025	+6.6%

The priced earnings move is the straddle's cost over the share price. It restates option prices and says nothing certain about the report.

Earnings calendar as of 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Public Filings

The filings the desk holds carry 1 recent trade in KMX shares.

Filed	Who	Trade	Size
10 Sep 2026	. Gilbert Cisneros, member of Congress	Bought	$1,001 to $15,000

Every filing is reproduced as filed, and each one reaches the public days or weeks after the trade.

Filings as of 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Seasonality

In the 23 Septembers on record, KMX's average change was minus 2.9 percent, and it rose in 34.8 percent of them.

Month	Average change	Middle change	Share of years up	Years
September	-2.9%	-5.4%	34.8%	23
October	+0.7%	-3.0%	39.1%	23
November	+2.5%	+4.4%	73.9%	23

Each figure is a month end to month end change in past years. A past month says nothing certain about the next one.

Monthly history through 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Headlines

The desk's news feeds carried 3 headlines naming KMX in the 3 days to 28 Sep 2026.

Figure	Value
Headlines in the window	3
Latest	27 Sep 2026

The titles are in the Headlines window, with the time each was published.

Headlines as of 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Questions

What is KMX's IV rank?: KMX's IV rank is 99 of 100 on 28 Sep 2026.
What move are KMX options pricing?: On 28 Sep 2026, KMX options priced a move of 17.6 percent down and 15.3 percent up by 16 Oct 2026.
Where are KMX's call wall and put wall?: On 28 Sep 2026, KMX's call wall is the 70 strike and its put wall is the 55 strike.
What was the desk's latest view of KMX on the Free plan?: On 25 Sep 2026 the desk's view of KMX was neutral, paper trading.
When does KMX report earnings next?: KMX reports next on 29 Sep 2026, and options priced an earnings move of 13.0 percent through 16 Oct 2026.

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