Energy

Marathon Petroleum Corp (MPC) options and signal

Figures as of 28 Sep 2026

MPC is Marathon Petroleum Corp, an Energy name the model ranks every trading day. The options figures are from the close on 28 Sep 2026. The model's figures are from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind the latest, as the Free plan shows them. Every model figure is paper trading.

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At a glance

Figure	Value	Date
Trade Card	Bear call spread, 18 Dec	25 Sep
IV rank	93 of 100	28 Sep
At the money IV	50.9%	28 Sep
Priced move to 16 Oct	11.3% down, 10.9% up	28 Sep
Call wall and put wall	410 and 350	28 Sep
Signal and the desk's view	Bearish signal, view bearish	25 Sep
Last close	389.44	28 Sep
Next report	3 Nov 2026	28 Sep

Trade Cards

On 25 Sep 2026 the Trade Card for MPC was a bear call spread expiring 18 Dec 2026, paper trading.

Figure	Value
Signal	Bearish, over 45 trading days
Strategy	Bear call spread, credit
Legs	Sell the 460 call, Buy the 520 call
Expiry	18 Dec 2026, 84 days to expiry
Limit	A credit of at least $9.70
Probability of profit	71%, the option market's odds at expiry, from delta
Max loss	$5,030 per contract
Max profit	$970 per contract
Breakeven	469.70
IV rank at that expiry	93 of 100

Probability of profit is the option market's own odds from delta, not the model's.

Priced on the option chain at the close on 25 Sep 2026.

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Options Snapshot

MPC's IV rank is 93 of 100 on 28 Sep 2026.

Figure	Value
IV rank	93 of 100
At the money IV	50.9%, near month, 18 days
Put/call ratio, open interest	1.06
Call open interest, strikes captured near the price	30,500 contracts
Put open interest, strikes captured near the price	32,400 contracts
Cost to trade at the money	Fair, 15.8% of the option's mid price

IV rank is where the at the money IV sits among MPC's own weekly readings, 0 the lowest and 100 the highest.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Priced Range

On 28 Sep 2026, MPC options priced a move of 11.3 percent down and 10.9 percent up by 16 Oct 2026.

Expiry	Days	Down	Up	Range
16 Oct 2026	18	11.3%	10.9%	345.54 to 431.84
20 Nov 2026	53	19.2%	19.3%	314.84 to 464.44
18 Dec 2026	81	24.1%	23.8%	295.64 to 481.94
15 Jan 2027	109	26.7%	27.2%	285.44 to 495.44
19 Mar 2027	172	32.6%	35.2%	262.44 to 526.44
16 Apr 2027	200	34.7%	37.5%	254.44 to 535.44

The range is one standard deviation either side of the close of 389.44, as the option prices imply it.

A priced move restates option prices at the close and says nothing certain about where the price goes.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Gamma Map

On 28 Sep 2026, MPC's call wall is the 410 strike and its put wall is the 350 strike.

Figure	Value
Call wall, most open call gamma	410
Put wall, most open put gamma	350
Net dollar gamma, calls minus puts	minus $3.82 million
Total dollar gamma, both sides	$35.13 million
Close	389.44

Dollar gamma is stated for a one percent move in the price.

Net is calls minus puts under the standard convention, not a record of who holds the contracts.

Net gamma changes sign at 2 strikes, so no single flip strike is named.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Volatility History

On 28 Sep 2026, MPC's at the money IV is 50.9 percent against 20 day realized volatility of 31.8 percent.

Figure	Value
At the money IV	50.9%
Realized volatility, 20 trading days	31.8%
Realized volatility, 60 trading days	35.0%
IV against its own weekly record	High, in the top fifth
Weekly readings on record	787, from 1 Jul 2011
Weeks the price moved more than the one week priced move	29.0% of 252 weeks

Realized volatility is worked out from the daily closes the desk holds, not from the option chain.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Volatility Weather

On 28 Sep 2026, MPC's at the money IV runs from 50.9 percent at 18 days to 48.6 percent at 200 days.

Days to expiry	At the money IV
18	50.9%
53	50.7%
81	50.5%
109	49.4%
172	48.7%
200	48.6%

Near expiries price more volatility than far ones, an inverted term structure.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Volatility Smile

On 28 Sep 2026, at the 53 day expiry, MPC's IV ten percent below the price sits 0.6 points above at the money IV.

Strike area	Implied volatility	Against at the money
10% below the price	51.3%	+0.6 points
At the money	50.7%	0.0 points
10% above the price	51.1%	+0.4 points

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Volatility Surface

On 28 Sep 2026, MPC's surface spans 6 expiries out to 200 days, with IV from 48.4 to 51.8 percent near the price.

Figure	Value
Expiries captured	6
Nearest expiry	16 Oct 2026, 18 days
Farthest expiry	16 Apr 2027, 200 days
Points within 10% of the price, 7 days out or more	42
Lowest IV among them	48.4%
Highest IV among them	51.8%

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Expiry Ladder

On 28 Sep 2026, MPC has 6 captured expiries, from 16 Oct 2026 to 16 Apr 2027.

Expiry	Days	At the money IV	Call open interest	Put open interest
16 Oct 2026	18	50.9%	8,592	14,956
20 Nov 2026	53	50.7%	1,521	810
18 Dec 2026	81	50.5%	5,711	4,970
15 Jan 2027	109	49.4%	10,229	9,356
19 Mar 2027	172	48.7%	3,372	2,056
16 Apr 2027	200	48.6%	1,062	298

Open interest is summed over the strikes captured near the price on each expiry.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Strike Table

On 28 Sep 2026, MPC's largest open interest sits at the 350 strike, with 7,109 contracts across the captured expiries.

Strike	Call open interest	Put open interest	Total
350	640	6,469	7,109
340	926	3,220	4,146
300	1,450	2,049	3,499
330	1,437	1,973	3,410
400	1,796	1,469	3,265
380	1,521	1,674	3,195

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Since Yesterday

From 25 Sep 2026 to 28 Sep 2026, MPC's at the money IV moved from 49.4 percent to 50.9 percent.

Figure	25 Sep	28 Sep	Change
At the money IV	49.4%	50.9%	+1.5 points
Open interest, strikes captured near the price	62,737	62,933	+196
Put/call ratio, open interest	1.07	1.06	-0.00

Open interest changes cannot identify buyers or sellers.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Changed Hands

On 28 Sep 2026, 5,391 MPC option contracts traded, 0.6 times its own recent average.

Figure	Value
Calls traded	2,148
Puts traded	3,243
Against its recent average	0.6 times
Busier than	0 of its last 20 trading days
Open interest, whole chain	87,036 contracts
Volume to open interest	0.06
Unusual volume flag	No

Traded volume and open interest are shown side by side and never combined. Open interest changes cannot identify buyers or sellers.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Positioning Replay

The replay holds 33 trading days of MPC's option positioning, from 11 Aug 2026 to 28 Sep 2026.

Date	Close	Net dollar gamma	Top call strike	Top put strike
11 Aug 2026	336.42	$16.81 million	330	320
21 Sep 2026	402.38	minus $2.93 million	410	350
28 Sep 2026	389.44	minus $3.82 million	410	350

Each frame restates one nightly capture. Net is calls minus puts, a convention, not who holds the contracts.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Read-out

On 25 Sep 2026 the desk's view of MPC was bearish, paper trading.

Figure	Value
Side	Bearish at 45 trading days, signal on
Level above the close	431.08, the swing high of 21 Sep 2026, a close past it runs against the view
Level below the close	388.16, the swing low of 14 Sep 2026
The chart	Sits against the view
Strategy family	Bear call spread (sell a call spread above the price)
Price target	None. The desk has no price model.

The levels are prices the shares turned at on the chart, with the date of each.

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Rank by Timeframe

On 25 Sep 2026 MPC sat at the 1st percentile of the model's 45 trading day ranking, paper trading.

Timeframe	Percentile	Side
10 trading days	60 of 100	Neutral
20 trading days	2 of 100	Bearish
45 trading days	1 of 100	Bearish

100 is the top of the ranking. A name in the middle three fifths is neutral.

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Timeframe Agreement

On 25 Sep 2026, 2 of 3 timeframes put MPC on the bearish side, paper trading.

Group	Timeframes	Side	On that side
Near	10 day, 20 day	Bearish	1 of 2
Long	45 day	Bearish	1 of 1

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Signal History

On 25 Sep 2026 MPC's bearish signal had held 5 trading days in a row, paper trading.

Trading day	Signal	45 day percentile
25 Sep 2026	Bearish	1 of 100
24 Sep 2026	Bearish	1 of 100
23 Sep 2026	Bearish	1 of 100
22 Sep 2026	Bearish	1 of 100
21 Sep 2026	Bearish	1 of 100
18 Sep 2026	None	4 of 100
17 Sep 2026	None	2 of 100
16 Sep 2026	None	2 of 100

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Sector Split

On 25 Sep 2026, 17 of 56 Energy names were bullish and 33 were bearish, paper trading.

Sector	Names	Bullish	Bearish	Neutral
Energy	56	17	33	6

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Price Chart

MPC closed at 389.44 on 28 Sep 2026.

Figure	Value
Last close	389.44
Change over 5 trading days	-3.2%
Change over 21 trading days	+7.1%
Change over 63 trading days	+50.2%
Change over 252 trading days	+98.2%
52 week high	431.08
52 week low	161.93
20 day moving average	396.40
50 day moving average	358.11
200 day moving average	257.32
RSI, 14 days	54

Worked out from the desk's own daily bars, adjusted for share splits.

From the daily bars through 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Earnings Radar

MPC reports next on 3 Nov 2026, and options priced an earnings move of 15.5 percent through 20 Nov 2026.

Figure	Value
Next report	3 Nov 2026, before the open
Date	Confirmed by the company
Priced earnings move	15.5%, a straddle of $60.50 at the 390 strike, expiring 20 Nov 2026
Move after the report of 4 Aug 2026	+1.8%
Move after the report of 30 Apr 2026	-0.9%
Move after the report of 28 Jan 2026	+2.2%
Move after the report of 6 May 2025	+0.8%

The priced earnings move is the straddle's cost over the share price. It restates option prices and says nothing certain about the report.

Earnings calendar as of 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Short Volume

On 25 Sep 2026, 48.2 percent of MPC's reported volume at the covered venues was marked short.

Figure	Value
Short sale share, 25 Sep	48.2%
Five day average	44.6%
52 week median	55.1%

Short sale volume counts trades marked short at the covered venues, mostly off exchange. It is not the same as short interest.

Short volume as of 25 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Seasonality

In the 15 Septembers on record, MPC's average change was minus 1.9 percent, and it rose in 40.0 percent of them.

Month	Average change	Middle change	Share of years up	Years
September	-1.9%	-2.1%	40.0%	15
October	+5.5%	+6.5%	80.0%	15
November	+4.4%	+4.8%	53.3%	15

Each figure is a month end to month end change in past years. A past month says nothing certain about the next one.

Monthly history through 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Headlines

The desk's news feeds carried 6 headlines naming MPC in the 3 days to 28 Sep 2026.

Figure	Value
Headlines in the window	6
Latest	28 Sep 2026

The titles are in the Headlines window, with the time each was published.

Headlines as of 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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The Desk Analyst

The Free plan shows the first paragraph of The Desk Analyst's column on MPC for 25 Sep 2026, quoted below.

The close for Marathon Petroleum Corp is 393.52.

This is 53.5% above the 200-day simple moving average of 256.33.

Other moving averages include the SMA5 at 392.98, the SMA20 at 395.36, the SMA50 at 356.58, and the SMA100 at 308.62.

Paper trading. Column for 25 Sep 2026, general commentary published the same way to every reader.

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Questions

What is MPC's IV rank?: MPC's IV rank is 93 of 100 on 28 Sep 2026.
What move are MPC options pricing?: On 28 Sep 2026, MPC options priced a move of 11.3 percent down and 10.9 percent up by 16 Oct 2026.
Where are MPC's call wall and put wall?: On 28 Sep 2026, MPC's call wall is the 410 strike and its put wall is the 350 strike.
What was the latest Trade Card for MPC on the Free plan?: On 25 Sep 2026 the Trade Card for MPC was a bear call spread expiring 18 Dec 2026, paper trading.
When does MPC report earnings next?: MPC reports next on 3 Nov 2026, and options priced an earnings move of 15.5 percent through 20 Nov 2026.

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