Energy

APA Corp (APA) options and signal

Figures as of 28 Sep 2026

APA is APA Corp, an Energy name the model ranks every trading day. The options figures are from the close on 28 Sep 2026. The model's figures are from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind the latest, as the Free plan shows them. Every model figure is paper trading.

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At a glance

Figure	Value	Date
Trade Card	Bear call spread, 18 Dec	25 Sep
IV rank	77 of 100	28 Sep
At the money IV	50.3%	28 Sep
Priced move to 30 Oct	14.2% down, 14.3% up	28 Sep
Call wall and put wall	45 and 42.5	28 Sep
Signal and the desk's view	Bearish signal, view bearish	25 Sep
Last close	42.33	28 Sep
Next report	4 Nov 2026	28 Sep

Trade Cards

On 25 Sep 2026 the Trade Card for APA was a bear call spread expiring 18 Dec 2026, paper trading.

Figure	Value
Signal	Bearish, over 45 trading days
Strategy	Bear call spread, credit
Legs	Sell the 50 call, Buy the 55 call
Expiry	18 Dec 2026, 84 days to expiry
Limit	A credit of at least $0.73
Probability of profit	72%, the option market's odds at expiry, from delta
Max loss	$427 per contract
Max profit	$73 per contract
Breakeven	50.73
IV rank at that expiry	73 of 100

Probability of profit is the option market's own odds from delta, not the model's.

Priced on the option chain at the close on 25 Sep 2026.

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Options Snapshot

APA's IV rank is 77 of 100 on 28 Sep 2026.

Figure	Value
IV rank	77 of 100
At the money IV	50.3%, near month, 32 days
Put/call ratio, open interest	0.41
Call open interest, strikes captured near the price	85,000 contracts
Put open interest, strikes captured near the price	34,600 contracts
Cost to trade at the money	Fair, 16.0% of the option's mid price

IV rank is where the at the money IV sits among APA's own weekly readings, 0 the lowest and 100 the highest.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Priced Range

On 28 Sep 2026, APA options priced a move of 14.2 percent down and 14.3 percent up by 30 Oct 2026.

Expiry	Days	Down	Up	Range
2 Oct 2026	4	5.6%	5.5%	39.98 to 44.65
9 Oct 2026	11	8.2%	8.7%	38.85 to 46.01
23 Oct 2026	25	12.6%	12.7%	37.01 to 47.70
30 Oct 2026	32	14.2%	14.3%	36.30 to 48.40
20 Nov 2026	53	18.6%	18.5%	34.46 to 50.15
18 Dec 2026	81	22.1%	24.8%	32.96 to 52.83
19 Mar 2027	172	31.7%	34.5%	28.93 to 56.93

The range is one standard deviation either side of the close of 42.33, as the option prices imply it.

A priced move restates option prices at the close and says nothing certain about where the price goes.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Gamma Map

On 28 Sep 2026, APA's call wall is the 45 strike and its put wall is the 42.5 strike.

Figure	Value
Call wall, most open call gamma	45
Put wall, most open put gamma	42.5
Net dollar gamma, calls minus puts	$2.67 million
Total dollar gamma, both sides	$7.88 million
Close	42.33

Dollar gamma is stated for a one percent move in the price.

Net is calls minus puts under the standard convention, not a record of who holds the contracts.

Net gamma changes sign at 6 strikes, so no single flip strike is named.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Volatility History

On 28 Sep 2026, APA's at the money IV is 50.3 percent against 20 day realized volatility of 41.8 percent.

Figure	Value
At the money IV	50.3%
Realized volatility, 20 trading days	41.8%
Realized volatility, 60 trading days	43.6%
IV against its own weekly record	In the middle
Weekly readings on record	865, from 8 Jan 2010
Weeks the price moved more than the one week priced move	35.7% of 252 weeks

Realized volatility is worked out from the daily closes the desk holds, not from the option chain.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Volatility Weather

On 28 Sep 2026, APA's at the money IV runs from 53.9 percent at 4 days to 49.1 percent at 172 days.

Days to expiry	At the money IV
4	53.9%
11	48.0%
18	46.6%
25	48.3%
39	52.7%
53	48.8%
81	50.1%
172	49.1%

Near expiries price more volatility than far ones, an inverted term structure.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Volatility Smile

On 28 Sep 2026, at the 32 day expiry, APA's IV ten percent below the price sits 0.9 points below at the money IV.

Strike area	Implied volatility	Against at the money
10% below the price	49.3%	-0.9 points
At the money	50.3%	0.0 points
10% above the price	49.7%	-0.5 points

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Volatility Surface

On 28 Sep 2026, APA's surface spans 10 expiries out to 172 days, with IV from 45.8 to 56.0 percent near the price.

Figure	Value
Expiries captured	10
Nearest expiry	2 Oct 2026, 4 days
Farthest expiry	19 Mar 2027, 172 days
Points within 10% of the price, 7 days out or more	62
Lowest IV among them	45.8%
Highest IV among them	56.0%

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Expiry Ladder

On 28 Sep 2026, APA has 10 captured expiries, from 2 Oct 2026 to 19 Mar 2027.

Expiry	Days	At the money IV	Call open interest	Put open interest
2 Oct 2026	4	53.9%	2,224	2,617
9 Oct 2026	11	48.0%	1,012	522
16 Oct 2026	18	46.6%	19,926	8,085
23 Oct 2026	25	48.3%	430	479
30 Oct 2026	32	50.3%	238	525
6 Nov 2026	39	52.7%	5	72
20 Nov 2026	53	48.8%	795	701
18 Dec 2026	81	50.1%	13,808	4,093
15 Jan 2027	109	47.6%	40,891	11,226
19 Mar 2027	172	49.1%	5,654	6,271

Open interest is summed over the strikes captured near the price on each expiry.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Strike Table

On 28 Sep 2026, APA's largest open interest sits at the 45 strike, with 18,381 contracts across the captured expiries.

Strike	Call open interest	Put open interest	Total
45	14,151	4,230	18,381
40	9,606	6,181	15,787
30	11,894	3,131	15,025
42.5	6,696	4,105	10,801
35	4,326	4,094	8,420
37.5	6,402	1,983	8,385

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Since Yesterday

From 25 Sep 2026 to 28 Sep 2026, APA's at the money IV moved from 47.1 percent to 50.3 percent.

Figure	25 Sep	28 Sep	Change
At the money IV	47.1%	50.3%	+3.1 points
Open interest, strikes captured near the price	121,712	119,574	-2,138
Put/call ratio, open interest	0.39	0.41	+0.02

Open interest changes cannot identify buyers or sellers.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Changed Hands

On 28 Sep 2026, 6,211 APA option contracts traded, 0.8 times its own recent average.

Figure	Value
Calls traded	3,629
Puts traded	2,582
Against its recent average	0.8 times
Busier than	1 of its last 20 trading days
Open interest, whole chain	165,248 contracts
Volume to open interest	0.04
Unusual volume flag	No

Traded volume and open interest are shown side by side and never combined. Open interest changes cannot identify buyers or sellers.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Positioning Replay

The replay holds 33 trading days of APA's option positioning, from 11 Aug 2026 to 28 Sep 2026.

Date	Close	Net dollar gamma	Top call strike	Top put strike
11 Aug 2026	40.62	$4.93 million	40	35
21 Sep 2026	43.81	$1.89 million	45	45
28 Sep 2026	42.33	$2.67 million	45	42.5

Each frame restates one nightly capture. Net is calls minus puts, a convention, not who holds the contracts.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Read-out

On 25 Sep 2026 the desk's view of APA was bearish, paper trading.

Figure	Value
Side	Bearish at 45 trading days, signal on
Level above the close	44.18, the swing high of 16 Sep 2026, a close past it runs against the view
Level below the close	42.27, the swing low of 22 Sep 2026
The chart	Sits against the view
Strategy family	Bear call spread (sell a call spread above the price)
Price target	None. The desk has no price model.

The levels are prices the shares turned at on the chart, with the date of each.

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Rank by Timeframe

On 25 Sep 2026 APA sat at the 5th percentile of the model's 45 trading day ranking, paper trading.

Timeframe	Percentile	Side
10 trading days	82 of 100	Bullish
20 trading days	20 of 100	Neutral
45 trading days	5 of 100	Bearish

100 is the top of the ranking. A name in the middle three fifths is neutral.

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Timeframe Agreement

On 25 Sep 2026, 1 of 3 timeframes put APA on the bearish side, paper trading.

Group	Timeframes	Side	On that side
Near	10 day, 20 day	Bullish	1 of 2
Long	45 day	Bearish	1 of 1

The near timeframes and the long ones were on opposite sides, and the desk states both.

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Signal History

On 25 Sep 2026 APA's bearish signal began that trading day, paper trading.

Trading day	Signal	45 day percentile
25 Sep 2026	Bearish	5 of 100
24 Sep 2026	None	8 of 100
23 Sep 2026	None	11 of 100
22 Sep 2026	None	21 of 100
21 Sep 2026	None	5 of 100
18 Sep 2026	None	9 of 100
17 Sep 2026	Bearish	4 of 100
16 Sep 2026	None	14 of 100

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Sector Split

On 25 Sep 2026, 17 of 56 Energy names were bullish and 33 were bearish, paper trading.

Sector	Names	Bullish	Bearish	Neutral
Energy	56	17	33	6

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Price Chart

APA closed at 42.33 on 28 Sep 2026.

Figure	Value
Last close	42.33
Change over 5 trading days	-3.4%
Change over 21 trading days	-0.1%
Change over 63 trading days	+28.4%
Change over 252 trading days	+73.9%
52 week high	47.44
52 week low	21.63
20 day moving average	44.14
50 day moving average	41.03
200 day moving average	35.00
RSI, 14 days	47

Worked out from the desk's own daily bars, adjusted for share splits.

From the daily bars through 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Earnings Radar

APA reports next on 4 Nov 2026, a date confirmed by the company.

Figure	Value
Next report	4 Nov 2026, after the close
Date	Confirmed by the company
Move after the report of 5 Aug 2026	+5.4%
Move after the report of 6 May 2026	-5.4%
Move after the report of 25 Feb 2026	+4.5%
Move after the report of 5 Nov 2025	+9.1%

Earnings calendar as of 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Short Volume

On 25 Sep 2026, 46.1 percent of APA's reported volume at the covered venues was marked short.

Figure	Value
Short sale share, 25 Sep	46.1%
Five day average	39.7%
52 week median	62.3%
Short interest, share of shares outstanding	7.0% at the 15 Sep 2026 settlement
Days to cover	4.9

Short sale volume counts trades marked short at the covered venues, mostly off exchange. It is not the same as short interest.

Short volume as of 25 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Seasonality

In the 36 Septembers on record, APA's average change was plus 1.0 percent, and it rose in 52.8 percent of them.

Month	Average change	Middle change	Share of years up	Years
September	+1.0%	+0.7%	52.8%	36
October	-0.2%	-3.1%	44.4%	36
November	-0.7%	-0.3%	47.2%	36

Each figure is a month end to month end change in past years. A past month says nothing certain about the next one.

Monthly history through 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Questions

What is APA's IV rank?: APA's IV rank is 77 of 100 on 28 Sep 2026.
What move are APA options pricing?: On 28 Sep 2026, APA options priced a move of 14.2 percent down and 14.3 percent up by 30 Oct 2026.
Where are APA's call wall and put wall?: On 28 Sep 2026, APA's call wall is the 45 strike and its put wall is the 42.5 strike.
What was the latest Trade Card for APA on the Free plan?: On 25 Sep 2026 the Trade Card for APA was a bear call spread expiring 18 Dec 2026, paper trading.
When does APA report earnings next?: APA reports next on 4 Nov 2026, a date confirmed by the company.

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