Health Care

Moderna Inc (MRNA) options and signal

Figures as of 28 Sep 2026

MRNA is Moderna Inc, a Health Care name the model ranks every trading day. The options figures are from the close on 28 Sep 2026. The model's figures are from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind the latest, as the Free plan shows them. Every model figure is paper trading.

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At a glance

Figure	Value	Date
Trade Card	Long put, 18 Dec	25 Sep
IV rank	93 of 100	28 Sep
At the money IV	99.4%	28 Sep
Priced move to 30 Oct	29.0% down, 29.9% up	28 Sep
Call wall and put wall	200 and 150	28 Sep
Signal and the desk's view	Bearish signal, view bearish	25 Sep
Last close	197.28	28 Sep
Next report	5 Nov 2026	28 Sep

Trade Cards

On 25 Sep 2026 the Trade Card for MRNA was a long put expiring 18 Dec 2026, paper trading.

Figure	Value
Signal	Bearish, over 45 trading days
Strategy	Long put, debit
Legs	Buy the 220 put
Expiry	18 Dec 2026, 84 days to expiry
Limit	A debit of at most $48.00
Probability of profit	30%, the option market's odds at expiry, from delta
Max loss	$4,800 per contract
Max profit	$17,200 per contract
Breakeven	172.00
IV rank at that expiry	89 of 100

Probability of profit is the option market's own odds from delta, not the model's.

Priced on the option chain at the close on 25 Sep 2026.

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Options Snapshot

MRNA's IV rank is 93 of 100 on 28 Sep 2026.

Figure	Value
IV rank	93 of 100
At the money IV	99.4%, near month, 32 days
Put/call ratio, open interest	0.58
Call open interest, strikes captured near the price	193,000 contracts
Put open interest, strikes captured near the price	111,000 contracts
Cost to trade at the money	Tight, 11.5% of the option's mid price

IV rank is where the at the money IV sits among MRNA's own weekly readings, 0 the lowest and 100 the highest.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Priced Range

On 28 Sep 2026, MRNA options priced a move of 29.0 percent down and 29.9 percent up by 30 Oct 2026.

Expiry	Days	Down	Up	Range
2 Oct 2026	4	8.2%	8.6%	181.08 to 214.28
9 Oct 2026	11	12.4%	13.4%	172.78 to 223.78
23 Oct 2026	25	19.6%	20.9%	158.58 to 238.48
30 Oct 2026	32	29.0%	29.9%	139.98 to 256.18
20 Nov 2026	53	35.6%	36.8%	126.98 to 269.88
18 Dec 2026	81	41.2%	43.7%	115.98 to 283.48
19 Mar 2027	172	56.3%	60.8%	86.28 to 317.28

The range is one standard deviation either side of the close of 197.28, as the option prices imply it.

A priced move restates option prices at the close and says nothing certain about where the price goes.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Gamma Map

On 28 Sep 2026, MRNA's call wall is the 200 strike and its put wall is the 150 strike.

Figure	Value
Call wall, most open call gamma	200
Put wall, most open put gamma	150
Net dollar gamma, calls minus puts	$38.55 million
Total dollar gamma, both sides	$70.28 million
Close	197.28

Dollar gamma is stated for a one percent move in the price.

Net is calls minus puts under the standard convention, not a record of who holds the contracts.

Net gamma changes sign at 11 strikes, so no single flip strike is named.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Volatility History

On 28 Sep 2026, MRNA's at the money IV is 99.4 percent against 20 day realized volatility of 72.0 percent.

Figure	Value
At the money IV	99.4%
Realized volatility, 20 trading days	72.0%
Realized volatility, 60 trading days	229.6%
IV against its own weekly record	High, in the top fifth
Weekly readings on record	397, from 21 Dec 2018
Weeks the price moved more than the one week priced move	30.2% of 252 weeks

Realized volatility is worked out from the daily closes the desk holds, not from the option chain.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Volatility Weather

On 28 Sep 2026, MRNA's at the money IV runs from 78.5 percent at 4 days to 85.1 percent at 172 days.

Days to expiry	At the money IV
4	78.5%
11	77.5%
18	75.1%
25	77.5%
39	99.5%
53	94.7%
81	89.1%
172	85.1%

Far expiries price more volatility than near ones, an upward sloping term structure.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Volatility Smile

On 28 Sep 2026, at the 32 day expiry, MRNA's IV ten percent below the price sits 2.2 points below at the money IV.

Strike area	Implied volatility	Against at the money
10% below the price	97.2%	-2.2 points
At the money	99.4%	0.0 points
10% above the price	100.0%	+0.6 points

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Volatility Surface

On 28 Sep 2026, MRNA's surface spans 10 expiries out to 172 days, with IV from 72.9 to 101.9 percent near the price.

Figure	Value
Expiries captured	10
Nearest expiry	2 Oct 2026, 4 days
Farthest expiry	19 Mar 2027, 172 days
Points within 10% of the price, 7 days out or more	90
Lowest IV among them	72.9%
Highest IV among them	101.9%

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Expiry Ladder

On 28 Sep 2026, MRNA has 10 captured expiries, from 2 Oct 2026 to 19 Mar 2027.

Expiry	Days	At the money IV	Call open interest	Put open interest
2 Oct 2026	4	78.5%	38,175	11,814
9 Oct 2026	11	77.5%	5,289	3,339
16 Oct 2026	18	75.1%	30,341	16,178
23 Oct 2026	25	77.5%	5,544	3,071
30 Oct 2026	32	99.4%	7,426	2,595
6 Nov 2026	39	99.5%	545	170
20 Nov 2026	53	94.7%	34,311	34,846
18 Dec 2026	81	89.1%	32,899	12,051
15 Jan 2027	109	86.8%	25,688	10,518
19 Mar 2027	172	85.1%	13,149	16,423

Open interest is summed over the strikes captured near the price on each expiry.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Strike Table

On 28 Sep 2026, MRNA's largest open interest sits at the 200 strike, with 21,016 contracts across the captured expiries.

Strike	Call open interest	Put open interest	Total
200	19,891	1,125	21,016
100	12,828	7,832	20,660
160	8,444	9,910	18,354
150	5,701	10,961	16,662
180	10,127	3,502	13,629
220	13,278	54	13,332

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Since Yesterday

From 25 Sep 2026 to 28 Sep 2026, MRNA's at the money IV moved from 78.1 percent to 99.4 percent.

Figure	25 Sep	28 Sep	Change
At the money IV	78.1%	99.4%	+21.3 points
Open interest, strikes captured near the price	288,523	304,372	+15,849
Put/call ratio, open interest	0.62	0.57	-0.05

Open interest changes cannot identify buyers or sellers.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Changed Hands

On 28 Sep 2026, 69,840 MRNA option contracts traded, 0.5 times its own recent average.

Figure	Value
Calls traded	31,395
Puts traded	38,445
Against its recent average	0.5 times
Busier than	3 of its last 20 trading days
Open interest, whole chain	719,572 contracts
Volume to open interest	0.10
Unusual volume flag	Yes, 6 contracts traded well above open interest
Largest flagged contract	The 205 put expiring 2 Oct, 651 traded against 111 open

Traded volume and open interest are shown side by side and never combined. Open interest changes cannot identify buyers or sellers.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Positioning Replay

The replay holds 33 trading days of MRNA's option positioning, from 11 Aug 2026 to 28 Sep 2026.

Date	Close	Net dollar gamma	Top call strike	Top put strike
11 Aug 2026	60.57	$11.64 million	60	55
21 Sep 2026	172.94	$32.61 million	165	140
28 Sep 2026	197.28	$38.55 million	200	150

Each frame restates one nightly capture. Net is calls minus puts, a convention, not who holds the contracts.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Read-out

On 25 Sep 2026 the desk's view of MRNA was bearish, paper trading.

Figure	Value
Side	Bearish at 45 trading days, signal on
Level above the close	202.67, the swing high of 25 Sep 2026, a close past it runs against the view
Level below the close	156.41, the swing low of 2 Sep 2026
The chart	Sits against the view
Strategy family	Long put (buy a put)
Price target	None. The desk has no price model.

The levels are prices the shares turned at on the chart, with the date of each.

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Rank by Timeframe

On 25 Sep 2026 MRNA sat at the 1st percentile of the model's 45 trading day ranking, paper trading.

Timeframe	Percentile	Side
10 trading days	4 of 100	Bearish
20 trading days	2 of 100	Bearish
45 trading days	1 of 100	Bearish

100 is the top of the ranking. A name in the middle three fifths is neutral.

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Timeframe Agreement

On 25 Sep 2026, 3 of 3 timeframes put MRNA on the bearish side, paper trading.

Group	Timeframes	Side	On that side
Near	10 day, 20 day	Bearish	2 of 2
Long	45 day	Bearish	1 of 1

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Signal History

On 25 Sep 2026 MRNA's bearish signal began that trading day, paper trading.

Trading day	Signal	45 day percentile
25 Sep 2026	Bearish	1 of 100
24 Sep 2026	None	6 of 100
23 Sep 2026	Bearish	3 of 100
22 Sep 2026	Bearish	3 of 100
21 Sep 2026	Bearish	2 of 100
18 Sep 2026	None	6 of 100
17 Sep 2026	Bearish	3 of 100
16 Sep 2026	Bearish	2 of 100

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Sector Split

On 25 Sep 2026, 32 of 120 Health Care names were bullish and 52 were bearish, paper trading.

Sector	Names	Bullish	Bearish	Neutral
Health Care	120	32	52	36

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Price Chart

MRNA closed at 197.28 on 28 Sep 2026.

Figure	Value
Last close	197.28
Change over 5 trading days	+14.1%
Change over 21 trading days	+38.2%
Change over 63 trading days	+183.0%
Change over 252 trading days	+701.6%
52 week high	202.67
52 week low	22.28
20 day moving average	158.66
50 day moving average	112.82
200 day moving average	65.10
RSI, 14 days	75

Worked out from the desk's own daily bars, adjusted for share splits.

From the daily bars through 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Earnings Radar

MRNA reports next on 5 Nov 2026, a date confirmed by the company.

Figure	Value
Next report	5 Nov 2026, before the open
Date	Confirmed by the company
Move after the report of 31 Jul 2026	-5.3%
Move after the report of 30 Apr 2026	-1.2%
Move after the report of 28 Jan 2026	+3.4%
Move after the report of 1 May 2025	-5.3%

Earnings calendar as of 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Public Filings

The filings the desk holds carry 2 recent trades in MRNA shares.

Filed	Who	Trade	Size
9 Sep 2026	. Maria Elvira Salazar, member of Congress	Sold part	$1,001 to $15,000
9 Sep 2026	. Maria Elvira Salazar, member of Congress	Bought	$1,001 to $15,000

Every filing is reproduced as filed, and each one reaches the public days or weeks after the trade.

Filings as of 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Short Volume

On 25 Sep 2026, 60.8 percent of MRNA's reported volume at the covered venues was marked short.

Figure	Value
Short sale share, 25 Sep	60.8%
Five day average	61.4%
52 week median	54.3%
Short interest, share of shares outstanding	8.2% at the 15 Sep 2026 settlement
Days to cover	2.5

Short sale volume counts trades marked short at the covered venues, mostly off exchange. It is not the same as short interest.

Short volume as of 25 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Seasonality

In the 7 Septembers on record, MRNA's average change was minus 1.9 percent, and it rose in 57.1 percent of them.

Month	Average change	Middle change	Share of years up	Years
September	-1.9%	+1.2%	57.1%	7
October	-3.2%	-4.6%	42.9%	7
November	+20.6%	+2.3%	71.4%	7

Each figure is a month end to month end change in past years. A past month says nothing certain about the next one.

Monthly history through 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Headlines

The desk's news feeds carried 6 headlines naming MRNA in the 3 days to 28 Sep 2026.

Figure	Value
Headlines in the window	6
Latest	28 Sep 2026

The titles are in the Headlines window, with the time each was published.

Headlines as of 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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The Desk Analyst

The Free plan shows the first paragraph of The Desk Analyst's column on MRNA for 25 Sep 2026, quoted below.

The close of 198.88 is above all listed moving averages.

The SMA5 is 186.26, the SMA20 is 155.69, the SMA50 is 110.11, the SMA100 is 83.45, and the SMA200 is 64.26.

The current price is 209.5% above the 200-day average.

Paper trading. Column for 25 Sep 2026, general commentary published the same way to every reader.

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Questions

What is MRNA's IV rank?: MRNA's IV rank is 93 of 100 on 28 Sep 2026.
What move are MRNA options pricing?: On 28 Sep 2026, MRNA options priced a move of 29.0 percent down and 29.9 percent up by 30 Oct 2026.
Where are MRNA's call wall and put wall?: On 28 Sep 2026, MRNA's call wall is the 200 strike and its put wall is the 150 strike.
What was the latest Trade Card for MRNA on the Free plan?: On 25 Sep 2026 the Trade Card for MRNA was a long put expiring 18 Dec 2026, paper trading.
When does MRNA report earnings next?: MRNA reports next on 5 Nov 2026, a date confirmed by the company.

More Health Care names

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