Information Technology

Strategy Inc (MSTR) options and signal

Figures as of 28 Sep 2026

MSTR is Strategy Inc, an Information Technology name the model ranks every trading day. The options figures are from the close on 28 Sep 2026. The model's figures are from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind the latest, as the Free plan shows them. Every model figure is paper trading.

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At a glance

Figure	Value	Date
Trade Card	Bear call spread, 18 Dec	25 Sep
IV rank	72 of 100	28 Sep
At the money IV	65.9%	28 Sep
Priced move to 30 Oct	18.9% down, 20.2% up	28 Sep
Call wall and put wall	165 and 150	28 Sep
Signal and the desk's view	Bearish signal, view bearish	25 Sep
Last close	157.14	28 Sep
Next report	29 Oct 2026	28 Sep

Trade Cards

On 25 Sep 2026 the Trade Card for MSTR was a bear call spread expiring 18 Dec 2026, paper trading.

Figure	Value
Signal	Bearish, over 45 trading days
Strategy	Bear call spread, credit
Legs	Sell the 200 call, Buy the 240 call
Expiry	18 Dec 2026, 84 days to expiry
Limit	A credit of at least $4.88
Probability of profit	71%, the option market's odds at expiry, from delta
Max loss	$3,512 per contract
Max profit	$488 per contract
Breakeven	204.88
IV rank at that expiry	74 of 100

Probability of profit is the option market's own odds from delta, not the model's.

Priced on the option chain at the close on 25 Sep 2026.

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Options Snapshot

MSTR's IV rank is 72 of 100 on 28 Sep 2026.

Figure	Value
IV rank	72 of 100
At the money IV	65.9%, near month, 32 days
Put/call ratio, open interest	0.63
Call open interest, strikes captured near the price	639,000 contracts
Put open interest, strikes captured near the price	402,000 contracts
Cost to trade at the money	Tight, 3.0% of the option's mid price

IV rank is where the at the money IV sits among MSTR's own weekly readings, 0 the lowest and 100 the highest.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Priced Range

On 28 Sep 2026, MSTR options priced a move of 18.9 percent down and 20.2 percent up by 30 Oct 2026.

Expiry	Days	Down	Up	Range
2 Oct 2026	4	6.9%	7.4%	146.34 to 168.74
9 Oct 2026	11	10.9%	11.6%	140.04 to 175.34
23 Oct 2026	25	16.2%	17.4%	131.64 to 184.44
30 Oct 2026	32	18.9%	20.2%	127.44 to 188.84
20 Nov 2026	53	25.3%	27.1%	117.34 to 199.74
18 Dec 2026	81	31.1%	33.7%	108.24 to 210.14
19 Mar 2027	172	45.6%	50.9%	85.44 to 237.14

The range is one standard deviation either side of the close of 157.14, as the option prices imply it.

A priced move restates option prices at the close and says nothing certain about where the price goes.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Gamma Map

On 28 Sep 2026, MSTR's call wall is the 165 strike and its put wall is the 150 strike.

Figure	Value
Call wall, most open call gamma	165
Put wall, most open put gamma	150
Net dollar gamma, calls minus puts	$93.21 million
Total dollar gamma, both sides	$283.07 million
Close	157.14

Dollar gamma is stated for a one percent move in the price.

Net is calls minus puts under the standard convention, not a record of who holds the contracts.

Net gamma changes sign at 4 strikes, so no single flip strike is named.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Volatility History

On 28 Sep 2026, MSTR's at the money IV is 65.9 percent against 20 day realized volatility of 99.7 percent.

Figure	Value
At the money IV	65.9%
Realized volatility, 20 trading days	99.7%
Realized volatility, 60 trading days	81.6%
IV against its own weekly record	In the middle
Weekly readings on record	849, from 8 Jan 2010
Weeks the price moved more than the one week priced move	31.8% of 236 weeks

Realized volatility is worked out from the daily closes the desk holds, not from the option chain.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Volatility Weather

On 28 Sep 2026, MSTR's at the money IV runs from 67.1 percent at 4 days to 70.3 percent at 172 days.

Days to expiry	At the money IV
4	67.1%
11	64.0%
18	64.0%
25	63.9%
39	70.0%
53	68.6%
81	68.8%
172	70.3%

Far expiries price more volatility than near ones, an upward sloping term structure.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Volatility Smile

On 28 Sep 2026, at the 32 day expiry, MSTR's IV ten percent below the price sits 0.4 points above at the money IV.

Strike area	Implied volatility	Against at the money
10% below the price	66.2%	+0.4 points
At the money	65.9%	0.0 points
10% above the price	67.7%	+1.8 points

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Volatility Surface

On 28 Sep 2026, MSTR's surface spans 10 expiries out to 172 days, with IV from 62.4 to 72.3 percent near the price.

Figure	Value
Expiries captured	10
Nearest expiry	2 Oct 2026, 4 days
Farthest expiry	19 Mar 2027, 172 days
Points within 10% of the price, 7 days out or more	109
Lowest IV among them	62.4%
Highest IV among them	72.3%

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Expiry Ladder

On 28 Sep 2026, MSTR has 10 captured expiries, from 2 Oct 2026 to 19 Mar 2027.

Expiry	Days	At the money IV	Call open interest	Put open interest
2 Oct 2026	4	67.1%	186,995	65,826
9 Oct 2026	11	64.0%	26,992	18,284
16 Oct 2026	18	64.0%	103,523	56,367
23 Oct 2026	25	63.9%	8,186	13,059
30 Oct 2026	32	65.9%	7,415	10,679
6 Nov 2026	39	70.0%	869	772
20 Nov 2026	53	68.6%	86,031	42,821
18 Dec 2026	81	68.8%	71,926	90,611
15 Jan 2027	109	68.6%	110,890	71,048
19 Mar 2027	172	70.3%	35,864	32,981

Open interest is summed over the strikes captured near the price on each expiry.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Strike Table

On 28 Sep 2026, MSTR's largest open interest sits at the 170 strike, with 69,123 contracts across the captured expiries.

Strike	Call open interest	Put open interest	Total
170	58,261	10,862	69,123
160	33,917	31,146	65,063
165	46,000	14,629	60,629
135	40,589	13,910	54,499
150	25,782	27,456	53,238
200	44,143	6,297	50,440

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Since Yesterday

From 25 Sep 2026 to 28 Sep 2026, MSTR's at the money IV moved from 63.3 percent to 65.9 percent.

Figure	25 Sep	28 Sep	Change
At the money IV	63.3%	65.9%	+2.6 points
Open interest, strikes captured near the price	915,309	1.04 million	+125,830
Put/call ratio, open interest	0.74	0.63	-0.11

Open interest changes cannot identify buyers or sellers.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Changed Hands

On 28 Sep 2026, 235,999 MSTR option contracts traded, 0.5 times its own recent average.

Figure	Value
Calls traded	140,665
Puts traded	95,334
Against its recent average	0.5 times
Busier than	0 of its last 20 trading days
Open interest, whole chain	2.04 million contracts
Volume to open interest	0.12
Unusual volume flag	Yes, 10 contracts traded well above open interest
Largest flagged contract	The 144 call expiring 9 Oct, 17,344 traded against 5,385 open

Traded volume and open interest are shown side by side and never combined. Open interest changes cannot identify buyers or sellers.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Positioning Replay

The replay holds 33 trading days of MSTR's option positioning, from 11 Aug 2026 to 28 Sep 2026.

Date	Close	Net dollar gamma	Top call strike	Top put strike
11 Aug 2026	96.09	$42.91 million	100	95
21 Sep 2026	168.50	$105.71 million	155	160
28 Sep 2026	157.14	$93.21 million	165	150

Each frame restates one nightly capture. Net is calls minus puts, a convention, not who holds the contracts.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Read-out

On 25 Sep 2026 the desk's view of MSTR was bearish, paper trading.

Figure	Value
Side	Bearish at 45 trading days, signal on
Level above the close	171.19, the swing high of 22 Sep 2026, a close past it runs against the view
Level below the close	144.92, the swing low of 3 Sep 2026
The chart	Sits against the view
Strategy family	Bear call spread (sell a call spread above the price)
Price target	None. The desk has no price model.

The levels are prices the shares turned at on the chart, with the date of each.

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Rank by Timeframe

On 25 Sep 2026 MSTR sat at the 5th percentile of the model's 45 trading day ranking, paper trading.

Timeframe	Percentile	Side
10 trading days	3 of 100	Bearish
20 trading days	2 of 100	Bearish
45 trading days	5 of 100	Bearish

100 is the top of the ranking. A name in the middle three fifths is neutral.

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Timeframe Agreement

On 25 Sep 2026, 3 of 3 timeframes put MSTR on the bearish side, paper trading.

Group	Timeframes	Side	On that side
Near	10 day, 20 day	Bearish	2 of 2
Long	45 day	Bearish	1 of 1

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Signal History

On 25 Sep 2026 MSTR's bearish signal had held 6 trading days in a row, paper trading.

Trading day	Signal	45 day percentile
25 Sep 2026	Bearish	5 of 100
24 Sep 2026	Bearish	5 of 100
23 Sep 2026	Bearish	0 of 100
22 Sep 2026	Bearish	0 of 100
21 Sep 2026	Bearish	1 of 100
18 Sep 2026	Bearish	3 of 100
17 Sep 2026	None	15 of 100
16 Sep 2026	Bearish	2 of 100

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Sector Split

On 25 Sep 2026, 80 of 187 Information Technology names were bullish and 61 were bearish, paper trading.

Sector	Names	Bullish	Bearish	Neutral
Information Technology	187	80	61	46

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Price Chart

MSTR closed at 157.14 on 28 Sep 2026.

Figure	Value
Last close	157.14
Change over 5 trading days	-6.7%
Change over 21 trading days	+14.4%
Change over 63 trading days	+69.6%
Change over 252 trading days	-47.7%
52 week high	365.21
52 week low	81.81
20 day moving average	142.58
50 day moving average	118.91
200 day moving average	136.38
RSI, 14 days	62

Worked out from the desk's own daily bars, adjusted for share splits.

From the daily bars through 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Earnings Radar

MSTR reports next on 29 Oct 2026, a date worked out from past quarters.

Figure	Value
Next report	29 Oct 2026, after the close
Date	Worked out from past quarters
Move after the report of 30 Jul 2026	-4.6%
Move after the report of 5 May 2026	-0.0%
Move after the report of 5 Feb 2026	+26.1%
Move after the report of 30 Oct 2025	+5.9%

Earnings calendar as of 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Company Events

MSTR filed 4 current reports in the 14 days to 28 Sep 2026, the latest on 28 Sep 2026.

Filed	Report	What it covers
28 Sep 2026	Current report	Regulation FD Disclosure; Other Events
25 Sep 2026	Current report	Other Events
21 Sep 2026	Current report	Regulation FD Disclosure; Other Events
14 Sep 2026	Current report	Regulation FD Disclosure; Other Events

Filings as of 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Seasonality

In the 28 Septembers on record, MSTR's average change was plus 1.9 percent, and it rose in 50.0 percent of them.

Month	Average change	Middle change	Share of years up	Years
September	+1.9%	-0.3%	50.0%	28
October	+16.6%	+16.8%	75.0%	28
November	+5.6%	+0.8%	57.1%	28

Each figure is a month end to month end change in past years. A past month says nothing certain about the next one.

Monthly history through 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Headlines

The desk's news feeds carried 8 headlines naming MSTR in the 3 days to 28 Sep 2026.

Figure	Value
Headlines in the window	8
Latest	28 Sep 2026

The titles are in the Headlines window, with the time each was published.

Headlines as of 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Questions

What is MSTR's IV rank?: MSTR's IV rank is 72 of 100 on 28 Sep 2026.
What move are MSTR options pricing?: On 28 Sep 2026, MSTR options priced a move of 18.9 percent down and 20.2 percent up by 30 Oct 2026.
Where are MSTR's call wall and put wall?: On 28 Sep 2026, MSTR's call wall is the 165 strike and its put wall is the 150 strike.
What was the latest Trade Card for MSTR on the Free plan?: On 25 Sep 2026 the Trade Card for MSTR was a bear call spread expiring 18 Dec 2026, paper trading.
When does MSTR report earnings next?: MSTR reports next on 29 Oct 2026, a date worked out from past quarters.

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