Energy

Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (PBR) options and signal

Figures as of 28 Sep 2026

PBR is Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras, an Energy name the model ranks every trading day. The options figures are from the close on 28 Sep 2026. The model's figures are from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind the latest, as the Free plan shows them. Every model figure is paper trading.

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At a glance

Figure	Value	Date
IV rank	80 of 100	28 Sep
At the money IV	54.2%	28 Sep
Priced move to 30 Oct	17.2% down, 16.5% up	28 Sep
Call wall and put wall	21 and 20	28 Sep
Signal and the desk's view	No signal, view bearish	25 Sep
Last close	20.65	28 Sep
Next report	10 Nov 2026	28 Sep

Options Snapshot

PBR's IV rank is 80 of 100 on 28 Sep 2026.

Figure	Value
IV rank	80 of 100
At the money IV	54.2%, near month, 32 days
Put/call ratio, open interest	0.61
Call open interest, strikes captured near the price	986,000 contracts
Put open interest, strikes captured near the price	604,000 contracts
Cost to trade at the money	Fair, 22.0% of the option's mid price

IV rank is where the at the money IV sits among PBR's own weekly readings, 0 the lowest and 100 the highest.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Priced Range

On 28 Sep 2026, PBR options priced a move of 17.2 percent down and 16.5 percent up by 30 Oct 2026.

Expiry	Days	Down	Up	Range
2 Oct 2026	4	4.4%	4.5%	19.74 to 21.59
9 Oct 2026	11	9.9%	10.1%	18.61 to 22.74
23 Oct 2026	25	13.8%	13.4%	17.79 to 23.41
30 Oct 2026	32	17.2%	16.5%	17.09 to 24.05
20 Nov 2026	53	19.1%	19.9%	16.70 to 24.75
18 Dec 2026	81	21.9%	22.2%	16.12 to 25.24
19 Feb 2027	144	26.9%	25.7%	15.10 to 25.96

The range is one standard deviation either side of the close of 20.65, as the option prices imply it.

A priced move restates option prices at the close and says nothing certain about where the price goes.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Gamma Map

On 28 Sep 2026, PBR's call wall is the 21 strike and its put wall is the 20 strike.

Figure	Value
Call wall, most open call gamma	21
Put wall, most open put gamma	20
Net dollar gamma, calls minus puts	$22.29 million
Total dollar gamma, both sides	$49.81 million
Close	20.65

Dollar gamma is stated for a one percent move in the price.

Net is calls minus puts under the standard convention, not a record of who holds the contracts.

Net gamma changes sign at 3 strikes, so no single flip strike is named.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Volatility History

On 28 Sep 2026, PBR's at the money IV is 54.2 percent against 20 day realized volatility of 37.6 percent.

Figure	Value
At the money IV	54.2%
Realized volatility, 20 trading days	37.6%
Realized volatility, 60 trading days	34.3%
IV against its own weekly record	High, in the top fifth
Weekly readings on record	845, from 8 Jan 2010
Weeks the price moved more than the one week priced move	27.8% of 234 weeks

Realized volatility is worked out from the daily closes the desk holds, not from the option chain.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Volatility Weather

On 28 Sep 2026, PBR's at the money IV runs from 43.6 percent at 4 days to 42.2 percent at 144 days.

Days to expiry	At the money IV
4	43.6%
11	57.5%
18	51.6%
25	51.5%
39	51.5%
53	50.8%
81	47.1%
144	42.2%

Near expiries price more volatility than far ones, an inverted term structure.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Volatility Smile

On 28 Sep 2026, at the 32 day expiry, PBR's IV ten percent below the price sits 5.2 points above at the money IV.

Strike area	Implied volatility	Against at the money
10% below the price	59.5%	+5.2 points
At the money	54.2%	0.0 points
10% above the price	58.5%	+4.2 points

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Volatility Surface

On 28 Sep 2026, PBR's surface spans 10 expiries out to 144 days, with IV from 41.8 to 86.9 percent near the price.

Figure	Value
Expiries captured	10
Nearest expiry	2 Oct 2026, 4 days
Farthest expiry	19 Feb 2027, 144 days
Points within 10% of the price, 7 days out or more	49
Lowest IV among them	41.8%
Highest IV among them	86.9%

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Expiry Ladder

On 28 Sep 2026, PBR has 10 captured expiries, from 2 Oct 2026 to 19 Feb 2027.

Expiry	Days	At the money IV	Call open interest	Put open interest
2 Oct 2026	4	43.6%	11,885	5,179
9 Oct 2026	11	57.5%	7,783	12,525
16 Oct 2026	18	51.6%	154,863	88,956
23 Oct 2026	25	51.5%	3,098	1,503
30 Oct 2026	32	54.2%	9,535	10,742
6 Nov 2026	39	51.5%	5	2
20 Nov 2026	53	50.8%	412,930	68,410
18 Dec 2026	81	47.1%	165,578	221,620
15 Jan 2027	109	44.8%	215,714	190,177
19 Feb 2027	144	42.2%	4,811	4,482

Open interest is summed over the strikes captured near the price on each expiry.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Strike Table

On 28 Sep 2026, PBR's largest open interest sits at the 20 strike, with 211,991 contracts across the captured expiries.

Strike	Call open interest	Put open interest	Total
20	150,925	61,066	211,991
21	171,965	21,026	192,991
24	187,377	11	187,388
22	148,082	12,939	161,021
17	46,448	109,838	156,286
15	29,880	89,471	119,351

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Since Yesterday

From 25 Sep 2026 to 28 Sep 2026, PBR's at the money IV moved from 48.6 percent to 54.2 percent.

Figure	25 Sep	28 Sep	Change
At the money IV	48.6%	54.2%	+5.6 points
Open interest, strikes captured near the price	1.68 million	1.59 million	-88,884
Put/call ratio, open interest	0.66	0.61	-0.04

Open interest changes cannot identify buyers or sellers.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Changed Hands

On 28 Sep 2026, 39,202 PBR option contracts traded, 0.8 times its own recent average.

Figure	Value
Calls traded	18,105
Puts traded	21,097
Against its recent average	0.8 times
Busier than	0 of its last 20 trading days
Open interest, whole chain	1.99 million contracts
Volume to open interest	0.02
Unusual volume flag	Yes, 1 contract traded well above open interest
Largest flagged contract	The 22 call expiring 30 Oct, 2,582 traded against 1,046 open

Traded volume and open interest are shown side by side and never combined. Open interest changes cannot identify buyers or sellers.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Positioning Replay

The replay holds 33 trading days of PBR's option positioning, from 11 Aug 2026 to 28 Sep 2026.

Date	Close	Net dollar gamma	Top call strike	Top put strike
11 Aug 2026	17.93	$3 million	18	17
21 Sep 2026	20.63	$20.82 million	21	20
28 Sep 2026	20.65	$22.29 million	21	20

Each frame restates one nightly capture. Net is calls minus puts, a convention, not who holds the contracts.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Read-out

On 25 Sep 2026 the desk's view of PBR was bearish, paper trading.

Figure	Value
Side	Bearish at 45 trading days, no signal
Level above the close	21.43, the swing high of 23 Sep 2026, a close past it runs against the view
Level below the close	20.24, the swing low of 22 Sep 2026
The chart	Sits against the view
Strategy family	Bear call spread (sell a call spread above the price)
Price target	None. The desk has no price model.

The levels are prices the shares turned at on the chart, with the date of each.

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Rank by Timeframe

On 25 Sep 2026 PBR sat at the 17th percentile of the model's 45 trading day ranking, paper trading.

Timeframe	Percentile	Side
10 trading days	8 of 100	Bearish
20 trading days	3 of 100	Bearish
45 trading days	17 of 100	Bearish

100 is the top of the ranking. A name in the middle three fifths is neutral.

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Timeframe Agreement

On 25 Sep 2026, 3 of 3 timeframes put PBR on the bearish side, paper trading.

Group	Timeframes	Side	On that side
Near	10 day, 20 day	Bearish	2 of 2
Long	45 day	Bearish	1 of 1

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Signal History

On 25 Sep 2026 PBR had carried no signal for 4 trading days, paper trading.

Trading day	Signal	45 day percentile
25 Sep 2026	None	17 of 100
24 Sep 2026	None	25 of 100
23 Sep 2026	None	32 of 100
22 Sep 2026	None	17 of 100
21 Sep 2026	Bearish	4 of 100
18 Sep 2026	None	42 of 100
17 Sep 2026	None	11 of 100
16 Sep 2026	None	34 of 100

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Sector Split

On 25 Sep 2026, 17 of 56 Energy names were bullish and 33 were bearish, paper trading.

Sector	Names	Bullish	Bearish	Neutral
Energy	56	17	33	6

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Price Chart

PBR closed at 20.65 on 28 Sep 2026.

Figure	Value
Last close	20.65
Change over 5 trading days	+0.1%
Change over 21 trading days	+13.2%
Change over 63 trading days	+26.8%
Change over 252 trading days	+57.5%
52 week high	22.24
52 week low	11.43
20 day moving average	20.77
50 day moving average	19.37
200 day moving average	17.70
RSI, 14 days	55

Worked out from the desk's own daily bars, adjusted for share splits.

From the daily bars through 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Earnings Radar

PBR reports next on 10 Nov 2026, and options priced an earnings move of 15.5 percent through 20 Nov 2026.

Figure	Value
Next report	10 Nov 2026, after the close
Date	Confirmed by the company
Priced earnings move	15.5%, a straddle of $3.21 at the 21 strike, expiring 20 Nov 2026
Move after the report of 6 Aug 2026	-3.0%
Move after the report of 30 Apr 2026	-0.6%
Move after the report of 28 Jan 2026	+0.9%
Move after the report of 12 May 2025	+1.0%

The priced earnings move is the straddle's cost over the share price. It restates option prices and says nothing certain about the report.

Earnings calendar as of 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Seasonality

In the 23 Septembers on record, PBR's average change was plus 0.3 percent, and it rose in 60.9 percent of them.

Month	Average change	Middle change	Share of years up	Years
September	+0.3%	+3.8%	60.9%	23
October	+2.5%	+0.7%	60.9%	23
November	-0.1%	+0.3%	50.0%	22

Each figure is a month end to month end change in past years. A past month says nothing certain about the next one.

Monthly history through 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Headlines

The desk's news feeds carried 5 headlines naming PBR in the 3 days to 28 Sep 2026.

Figure	Value
Headlines in the window	5
Latest	28 Sep 2026

The titles are in the Headlines window, with the time each was published.

Headlines as of 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Questions

What is PBR's IV rank?: PBR's IV rank is 80 of 100 on 28 Sep 2026.
What move are PBR options pricing?: On 28 Sep 2026, PBR options priced a move of 17.2 percent down and 16.5 percent up by 30 Oct 2026.
Where are PBR's call wall and put wall?: On 28 Sep 2026, PBR's call wall is the 21 strike and its put wall is the 20 strike.
What was the desk's latest view of PBR on the Free plan?: On 25 Sep 2026 the desk's view of PBR was bearish, paper trading.
When does PBR report earnings next?: PBR reports next on 10 Nov 2026, and options priced an earnings move of 15.5 percent through 20 Nov 2026.

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