Consumer Discretionary

Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) options and signal

Figures as of 28 Sep 2026

TOL is Toll Brothers, Inc., a Consumer Discretionary name the model ranks every trading day. The options figures are from the close on 28 Sep 2026. The model's figures are from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind the latest, as the Free plan shows them. Every model figure is paper trading.

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At a glance

Figure	Value	Date
IV rank	90 of 100	28 Sep
At the money IV	44.7%	28 Sep
Priced move to 16 Oct	8.9% down, 8.4% up	28 Sep
Call wall and put wall	140 and 135	28 Sep
Signal and the desk's view	No signal, view bullish	25 Sep
Last close	136.51	28 Sep

Options Snapshot

TOL's IV rank is 90 of 100 on 28 Sep 2026.

Figure	Value
IV rank	90 of 100
At the money IV	44.7%, near month, 18 days
Put/call ratio, open interest	1.03
Call open interest, strikes captured near the price	6,770 contracts
Put open interest, strikes captured near the price	6,970 contracts
Cost to trade at the money	Wide, 53.9% of the option's mid price

IV rank is where the at the money IV sits among TOL's own weekly readings, 0 the lowest and 100 the highest.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Priced Range

On 28 Sep 2026, TOL options priced a move of 8.9 percent down and 8.4 percent up by 16 Oct 2026.

Expiry	Days	Down	Up	Range
16 Oct 2026	18	8.9%	8.4%	124.31 to 148.01
20 Nov 2026	53	13.2%	15.5%	118.51 to 157.71
18 Dec 2026	81	18.6%	17.9%	111.11 to 160.91
15 Jan 2027	109	18.8%	22.3%	110.81 to 167.01
19 Mar 2027	172	23.9%	28.1%	103.91 to 174.91

The range is one standard deviation either side of the close of 136.51, as the option prices imply it.

A priced move restates option prices at the close and says nothing certain about where the price goes.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Gamma Map

On 28 Sep 2026, TOL's call wall is the 140 strike and its put wall is the 135 strike.

Figure	Value
Call wall, most open call gamma	140
Put wall, most open put gamma	135
Net dollar gamma, calls minus puts	$100,860
Total dollar gamma, both sides	$3.03 million
Close	136.51

Dollar gamma is stated for a one percent move in the price.

Net is calls minus puts under the standard convention, not a record of who holds the contracts.

Net gamma changes sign at 2 strikes, so no single flip strike is named.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Volatility History

On 28 Sep 2026, TOL's at the money IV is 44.7 percent against 20 day realized volatility of 24.2 percent.

Figure	Value
At the money IV	44.7%
Realized volatility, 20 trading days	24.2%
Realized volatility, 60 trading days	31.2%
IV against its own weekly record	High, in the top fifth
Weekly readings on record	848, from 8 Jan 2010
Weeks the price moved more than the one week priced move	23.7% of 236 weeks

Realized volatility is worked out from the daily closes the desk holds, not from the option chain.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Volatility Weather

On 28 Sep 2026, TOL's at the money IV runs from 44.7 percent at 18 days to 40.8 percent at 172 days.

Days to expiry	At the money IV
18	44.7%
53	39.5%
81	39.8%
109	37.9%
172	40.8%

Near expiries price more volatility than far ones, an inverted term structure.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Volatility Smile

On 28 Sep 2026, at the 53 day expiry, TOL's IV ten percent below the price sits 3.7 points below at the money IV.

Strike area	Implied volatility	Against at the money
10% below the price	35.9%	-3.7 points
At the money	39.5%	0.0 points
10% above the price	40.9%	+1.4 points

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Volatility Surface

On 28 Sep 2026, TOL's surface spans 5 expiries out to 172 days, with IV from 34.7 to 52.7 percent near the price.

Figure	Value
Expiries captured	5
Nearest expiry	16 Oct 2026, 18 days
Farthest expiry	19 Mar 2027, 172 days
Points within 10% of the price, 7 days out or more	30
Lowest IV among them	34.7%
Highest IV among them	52.7%

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Expiry Ladder

On 28 Sep 2026, TOL has 5 captured expiries, from 16 Oct 2026 to 19 Mar 2027.

Expiry	Days	At the money IV	Call open interest	Put open interest
16 Oct 2026	18	44.7%	1,316	941
20 Nov 2026	53	39.5%	389	452
18 Dec 2026	81	39.8%	1,072	1,207
15 Jan 2027	109	37.9%	3,387	3,195
19 Mar 2027	172	40.8%	605	1,174

Open interest is summed over the strikes captured near the price on each expiry.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Strike Table

On 28 Sep 2026, TOL's largest open interest sits at the 140 strike, with 1,287 contracts across the captured expiries.

Strike	Call open interest	Put open interest	Total
140	876	411	1,287
125	87	1,087	1,174
135	314	748	1,062
155	931	73	1,004
150	795	139	934
145	660	249	909

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Since Yesterday

From 25 Sep 2026 to 28 Sep 2026, TOL's at the money IV moved from 37.3 percent to 44.7 percent.

Figure	25 Sep	28 Sep	Change
At the money IV	37.3%	44.7%	+7.4 points
Open interest, strikes captured near the price	12,981	13,738	+757
Put/call ratio, open interest	1.02	1.03	+0.01

Open interest changes cannot identify buyers or sellers.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Changed Hands

On 28 Sep 2026, 1,875 TOL option contracts traded, 0.7 times its own recent average.

Figure	Value
Calls traded	611
Puts traded	1,264
Against its recent average	0.7 times
Busier than	9 of its last 20 trading days
Open interest, whole chain	16,995 contracts
Volume to open interest	0.11
Unusual volume flag	No

Traded volume and open interest are shown side by side and never combined. Open interest changes cannot identify buyers or sellers.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Positioning Replay

The replay holds 32 trading days of TOL's option positioning, from 12 Aug 2026 to 28 Sep 2026.

Date	Close	Net dollar gamma	Top call strike	Top put strike
12 Aug 2026	148.53	$443,117	165	125
21 Sep 2026	135.50	minus $133,823	155	125
28 Sep 2026	136.51	$100,860	140	135

Each frame restates one nightly capture. Net is calls minus puts, a convention, not who holds the contracts.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Read-out

On 25 Sep 2026 the desk's view of TOL was bullish, paper trading.

Figure	Value
Side	Bullish at 45 trading days, no signal
Level above the close	136.99, the swing high of 17 Sep 2026
Level below the close	134.25, the swing low of 24 Sep 2026, a close past it runs against the view
The chart	Sits against the view
Strategy family	Cash-secured put (sell a put below the price)
Price target	None. The desk has no price model.

The levels are prices the shares turned at on the chart, with the date of each.

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Rank by Timeframe

On 25 Sep 2026 TOL sat at the 91st percentile of the model's 45 trading day ranking, paper trading.

Timeframe	Percentile	Side
10 trading days	47 of 100	Neutral
20 trading days	74 of 100	Neutral
45 trading days	91 of 100	Bullish

100 is the top of the ranking. A name in the middle three fifths is neutral.

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Timeframe Agreement

On 25 Sep 2026, 1 of 3 timeframes put TOL on the bullish side, paper trading.

Group	Timeframes	Side	On that side
Near	10 day, 20 day	Neutral	0 of 2
Long	45 day	Bullish	1 of 1

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Signal History

On 25 Sep 2026 TOL had carried no signal for 4 trading days, paper trading.

Trading day	Signal	45 day percentile
25 Sep 2026	None	91 of 100
24 Sep 2026	None	92 of 100
23 Sep 2026	None	83 of 100
22 Sep 2026	None	84 of 100
21 Sep 2026	Bullish	98 of 100
18 Sep 2026	None	90 of 100
17 Sep 2026	None	86 of 100
16 Sep 2026	None	88 of 100

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Sector Split

On 25 Sep 2026, 27 of 106 Consumer Discretionary names were bullish and 33 were bearish, paper trading.

Sector	Names	Bullish	Bearish	Neutral
Consumer Discretionary	106	27	33	46

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Price Chart

TOL closed at 136.51 on 28 Sep 2026.

Figure	Value
Last close	136.51
Change over 5 trading days	+0.7%
Change over 21 trading days	-5.9%
Change over 63 trading days	-17.2%
Change over 252 trading days	+1.1%
52 week high	168.36
52 week low	123.15
20 day moving average	136.67
50 day moving average	144.12
200 day moving average	144.44
RSI, 14 days	45

Worked out from the desk's own daily bars, adjusted for share splits.

From the daily bars through 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Public Filings

Company insiders reported 0 purchases and 1 sale of TOL in the filings the desk holds.

Filed	Who	Trade	Size
24 Sep 2026	East Stephen F., director	Sold	800 shares, $108,792

Every filing is reproduced as filed, and each one reaches the public days or weeks after the trade.

Filings as of 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Seasonality

In the 23 Septembers on record, TOL's average change was minus 1.3 percent, and it rose in 47.8 percent of them.

Month	Average change	Middle change	Share of years up	Years
September	-1.3%	-0.6%	47.8%	23
October	+0.6%	+0.0%	52.2%	23
November	+5.6%	+8.1%	78.3%	23

Each figure is a month end to month end change in past years. A past month says nothing certain about the next one.

Monthly history through 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Headlines

The desk's news feeds carried 3 headlines naming TOL in the 3 days to 28 Sep 2026.

Figure	Value
Headlines in the window	3
Latest	28 Sep 2026

The titles are in the Headlines window, with the time each was published.

Headlines as of 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Questions

What is TOL's IV rank?: TOL's IV rank is 90 of 100 on 28 Sep 2026.
What move are TOL options pricing?: On 28 Sep 2026, TOL options priced a move of 8.9 percent down and 8.4 percent up by 16 Oct 2026.
Where are TOL's call wall and put wall?: On 28 Sep 2026, TOL's call wall is the 140 strike and its put wall is the 135 strike.
What was the desk's latest view of TOL on the Free plan?: On 25 Sep 2026 the desk's view of TOL was bullish, paper trading.

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