Information Technology
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd (TSM) options and signal
Figures as of 28 Sep 2026
TSM is Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd, an Information Technology name the model ranks every trading day. The options figures are from the close on 28 Sep 2026. The model's figures are from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind the latest, as the Free plan shows them. Every model figure is paper trading.
Membership gets tonight's signals the night they publish. Free gets every options screen, never delayed, and the signals one trading day behind.
At a glance
| Figure | Value | Date |
|---|---|---|
| Trade Card | Bull put spread, 18 Dec | 25 Sep |
| IV rank | 64 of 100 | 28 Sep |
| At the money IV | 35.2% | 28 Sep |
| Priced move to 30 Oct | 9.8% down, 10.7% up | 28 Sep |
| Call wall and put wall | 500 and 420 | 28 Sep |
| Signal and the desk's view | No signal, view bullish | 25 Sep |
| Last close | 452.88 | 28 Sep |
| Next report | 15 Oct 2026 | 28 Sep |
Trade Cards
On 25 Sep 2026 the Trade Card for TSM was a bull put spread expiring 18 Dec 2026, paper trading.
| Figure | Value |
|---|---|
| Signal | Neutral |
| Strategy | Bull put spread, credit |
| Legs | Sell the 420 put, Buy the 380 put |
| Expiry | 18 Dec 2026, 84 days to expiry |
| Limit | A credit of at least $9.15 |
| Probability of profit | 70%, the option market's odds at expiry, from delta |
| Max loss | $3,085 per contract |
| Max profit | $915 per contract |
| Breakeven | 410.85 |
| IV rank at that expiry | 62 of 100 |
Probability of profit is the option market's own odds from delta, not the model's.
Priced on the option chain at the close on 25 Sep 2026.
Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.
Options Snapshot
TSM's IV rank is 64 of 100 on 28 Sep 2026.
| Figure | Value |
|---|---|
| IV rank | 64 of 100 |
| At the money IV | 35.2%, near month, 32 days |
| Put/call ratio, open interest | 0.73 |
| Call open interest, strikes captured near the price | 532,000 contracts |
| Put open interest, strikes captured near the price | 389,000 contracts |
| Cost to trade at the money | Tight, 12.5% of the option's mid price |
IV rank is where the at the money IV sits among TSM's own weekly readings, 0 the lowest and 100 the highest.
From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.
Open Options Snapshot in RingMasterThe Options Snapshot guide
Priced Range
On 28 Sep 2026, TSM options priced a move of 9.8 percent down and 10.7 percent up by 30 Oct 2026.
| Expiry | Days | Down | Up | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | 4 | 3.4% | 3.3% | 437.38 to 467.98 |
| 9 Oct 2026 | 11 | 5.7% | 5.5% | 427.08 to 477.98 |
| 23 Oct 2026 | 25 | 9.2% | 9.6% | 411.18 to 496.48 |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 32 | 9.8% | 10.7% | 408.48 to 501.48 |
| 20 Nov 2026 | 53 | 12.7% | 13.6% | 395.48 to 514.28 |
| 18 Dec 2026 | 81 | 15.5% | 17.4% | 382.78 to 531.78 |
| 19 Feb 2027 | 144 | 21.2% | 24.5% | 357.08 to 563.88 |
The range is one standard deviation either side of the close of 452.88, as the option prices imply it.
A priced move restates option prices at the close and says nothing certain about where the price goes.
From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.
Gamma Map
On 28 Sep 2026, TSM's call wall is the 500 strike and its put wall is the 420 strike.
| Figure | Value |
|---|---|
| Call wall, most open call gamma | 500 |
| Put wall, most open put gamma | 420 |
| Net dollar gamma, calls minus puts | $234 million |
| Total dollar gamma, both sides | $793.47 million |
| Close | 452.88 |
Dollar gamma is stated for a one percent move in the price.
Net is calls minus puts under the standard convention, not a record of who holds the contracts.
Net gamma changes sign at 4 strikes, so no single flip strike is named.
From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.
Volatility History
On 28 Sep 2026, TSM's at the money IV is 35.2 percent against 20 day realized volatility of 26.0 percent.
| Figure | Value |
|---|---|
| At the money IV | 35.2% |
| Realized volatility, 20 trading days | 26.0% |
| Realized volatility, 60 trading days | 34.9% |
| IV against its own weekly record | In the middle |
| Weekly readings on record | 840, from 8 Jan 2010 |
| Weeks the price moved more than the one week priced move | 29.7% of 236 weeks |
Realized volatility is worked out from the daily closes the desk holds, not from the option chain.
From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.
Open Volatility History in RingMasterThe Volatility History guide
Volatility Weather
On 28 Sep 2026, TSM's at the money IV runs from 32.6 percent at 4 days to 36.7 percent at 144 days.
| Days to expiry | At the money IV |
|---|---|
| 4 | 32.6% |
| 11 | 31.6% |
| 18 | 37.4% |
| 25 | 36.6% |
| 39 | 35.5% |
| 53 | 34.9% |
| 81 | 35.1% |
| 144 | 36.7% |
Far expiries price more volatility than near ones, an upward sloping term structure.
From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.
Open Volatility Weather in RingMasterThe Volatility Weather guide
Volatility Smile
On 28 Sep 2026, at the 32 day expiry, TSM's IV ten percent below the price sits 4.1 points above at the money IV.
| Strike area | Implied volatility | Against at the money |
|---|---|---|
| 10% below the price | 39.3% | +4.1 points |
| At the money | 35.2% | 0.0 points |
| 10% above the price | 35.9% | +0.7 points |
From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.
Open Volatility Smile in RingMasterThe Volatility Smile guide
Volatility Surface
On 28 Sep 2026, TSM's surface spans 10 expiries out to 144 days, with IV from 31.4 to 43.3 percent near the price.
| Figure | Value |
|---|---|
| Expiries captured | 10 |
| Nearest expiry | 2 Oct 2026, 4 days |
| Farthest expiry | 19 Feb 2027, 144 days |
| Points within 10% of the price, 7 days out or more | 150 |
| Lowest IV among them | 31.4% |
| Highest IV among them | 43.3% |
From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.
Open Volatility Surface in RingMasterThe Volatility Surface guide
Expiry Ladder
On 28 Sep 2026, TSM has 10 captured expiries, from 2 Oct 2026 to 19 Feb 2027.
| Expiry | Days | At the money IV | Call open interest | Put open interest |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | 4 | 32.6% | 27,247 | 18,945 |
| 9 Oct 2026 | 11 | 31.6% | 10,815 | 12,153 |
| 16 Oct 2026 | 18 | 37.4% | 66,738 | 57,138 |
| 23 Oct 2026 | 25 | 36.6% | 12,027 | 9,008 |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 32 | 35.2% | 3,201 | 6,114 |
| 6 Nov 2026 | 39 | 35.5% | 279 | 428 |
| 20 Nov 2026 | 53 | 34.9% | 64,568 | 51,496 |
| 18 Dec 2026 | 81 | 35.1% | 135,950 | 111,096 |
| 15 Jan 2027 | 109 | 35.9% | 189,465 | 94,268 |
| 19 Feb 2027 | 144 | 36.7% | 21,490 | 28,028 |
Open interest is summed over the strikes captured near the price on each expiry.
From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.
Strike Table
On 28 Sep 2026, TSM's largest open interest sits at the 400 strike, with 66,727 contracts across the captured expiries.
| Strike | Call open interest | Put open interest | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| 400 | 12,707 | 54,020 | 66,727 |
| 500 | 63,011 | 1,512 | 64,523 |
| 560 | 60,291 | 271 | 60,562 |
| 420 | 17,881 | 37,867 | 55,748 |
| 450 | 36,553 | 8,928 | 45,481 |
| 360 | 4,766 | 37,641 | 42,407 |
From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.
Since Yesterday
From 25 Sep 2026 to 28 Sep 2026, TSM's at the money IV moved from 33.2 percent to 35.2 percent.
| Figure | 25 Sep | 28 Sep | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| At the money IV | 33.2% | 35.2% | +2.0 points |
| Open interest, strikes captured near the price | 980,809 | 920,454 | -60,355 |
| Put/call ratio, open interest | 0.78 | 0.73 | -0.05 |
Open interest changes cannot identify buyers or sellers.
From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.
Changed Hands
On 28 Sep 2026, 116,103 TSM option contracts traded, 1.2 times its own recent average.
| Figure | Value |
|---|---|
| Calls traded | 53,265 |
| Puts traded | 62,838 |
| Against its recent average | 1.2 times |
| Busier than | 14 of its last 20 trading days |
| Open interest, whole chain | 1.5 million contracts |
| Volume to open interest | 0.08 |
| Unusual volume flag | Yes, 14 contracts traded well above open interest |
| Largest flagged contract | The 420 put expiring 16 Apr, 6,075 traded against 485 open |
Traded volume and open interest are shown side by side and never combined. Open interest changes cannot identify buyers or sellers.
From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.
Positioning Replay
The replay holds 33 trading days of TSM's option positioning, from 11 Aug 2026 to 28 Sep 2026.
| Date | Close | Net dollar gamma | Top call strike | Top put strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Aug 2026 | 422.06 | $119.25 million | 420 | 400 |
| 21 Sep 2026 | 445.14 | $194.51 million | 450 | 400 |
| 28 Sep 2026 | 452.88 | $234 million | 500 | 420 |
Each frame restates one nightly capture. Net is calls minus puts, a convention, not who holds the contracts.
From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.
Open Positioning Replay in RingMasterThe Positioning Replay guide
Read-out
On 25 Sep 2026 the desk's view of TSM was bullish, paper trading.
| Figure | Value |
|---|---|
| Side | Bullish at 45 trading days, no signal |
| Level above the close | 479.00, the swing high of 30 Jun 2026 |
| Level below the close | 444.29, the swing low of 8 Sep 2026, a close past it runs against the view |
| The chart | Sits with the view |
| Strategy family | Bull put spread (sell a put spread below the price) |
| Price target | None. The desk has no price model. |
The levels are prices the shares turned at on the chart, with the date of each.
Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.
Rank by Timeframe
On 25 Sep 2026 TSM sat at the 92nd percentile of the model's 45 trading day ranking, paper trading.
| Timeframe | Percentile | Side |
|---|---|---|
| 10 trading days | 99 of 100 | Bullish |
| 20 trading days | 94 of 100 | Bullish |
| 45 trading days | 92 of 100 | Bullish |
100 is the top of the ranking. A name in the middle three fifths is neutral.
Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.
Open Rank by Timeframe in RingMasterThe Rank by Timeframe guide
Timeframe Agreement
On 25 Sep 2026, 3 of 3 timeframes put TSM on the bullish side, paper trading.
| Group | Timeframes | Side | On that side |
|---|---|---|---|
| Near | 10 day, 20 day | Bullish | 2 of 2 |
| Long | 45 day | Bullish | 1 of 1 |
Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.
Open Timeframe Agreement in RingMasterThe Timeframe Agreement guide
Signal History
On 25 Sep 2026 TSM had carried no signal for at least 18 trading days, paper trading.
| Trading day | Signal | 45 day percentile |
|---|---|---|
| 25 Sep 2026 | None | 92 of 100 |
| 24 Sep 2026 | None | 77 of 100 |
| 23 Sep 2026 | None | 59 of 100 |
| 22 Sep 2026 | None | 45 of 100 |
| 21 Sep 2026 | None | 90 of 100 |
| 18 Sep 2026 | None | 95 of 100 |
| 17 Sep 2026 | None | 79 of 100 |
| 16 Sep 2026 | None | 70 of 100 |
Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.
Sector Split
On 25 Sep 2026, 80 of 187 Information Technology names were bullish and 61 were bearish, paper trading.
| Sector | Names | Bullish | Bearish | Neutral |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Information Technology | 187 | 80 | 61 | 46 |
Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.
Price Chart
TSM closed at 452.88 on 28 Sep 2026.
| Figure | Value |
|---|---|
| Last close | 452.88 |
| Change over 5 trading days | +1.7% |
| Change over 21 trading days | +6.0% |
| Change over 63 trading days | -0.5% |
| Change over 252 trading days | +63.7% |
| 52 week high | 479.00 |
| 52 week low | 266.82 |
| 20 day moving average | 431.96 |
| 50 day moving average | 421.27 |
| 200 day moving average | 383.91 |
| RSI, 14 days | 63 |
Worked out from the desk's own daily bars, adjusted for share splits.
From the daily bars through 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.
Earnings Radar
TSM reports next on 15 Oct 2026, and options priced an earnings move of 6.4 percent through 16 Oct 2026.
| Figure | Value |
|---|---|
| Next report | 15 Oct 2026, before the open |
| Date | Confirmed by the company |
| Priced earnings move | 6.4%, a straddle of $28.83 at the 452.5 strike, expiring 16 Oct 2026 |
| Move after the report of 16 Jul 2026 | -2.3% |
| Move after the report of 17 Apr 2026 | -1.1% |
| Move after the report of 15 Jan 2026 | +0.2% |
| Move after the report of 17 Apr 2025 | +0.1% |
The priced earnings move is the straddle's cost over the share price. It restates option prices and says nothing certain about the report.
Earnings calendar as of 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.
Public Filings
The filings the desk holds carry 1 recent trade in TSM shares.
| Filed | Who | Trade | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Sep 2026 | . Richard W. Allen, member of Congress | Bought | $1,001 to $15,000 |
Every filing is reproduced as filed, and each one reaches the public days or weeks after the trade.
Filings as of 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.
Seasonality
In the 23 Septembers on record, TSM's average change was plus 0.7 percent, and it rose in 60.9 percent of them.
| Month | Average change | Middle change | Share of years up | Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| September | +0.7% | +1.6% | 60.9% | 23 |
| October | +2.3% | +3.5% | 73.9% | 23 |
| November | +3.8% | +2.8% | 56.5% | 23 |
Each figure is a month end to month end change in past years. A past month says nothing certain about the next one.
Monthly history through 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.
Headlines
The desk's news feeds carried 8 headlines naming TSM in the 3 days to 28 Sep 2026.
| Figure | Value |
|---|---|
| Headlines in the window | 8 |
| Latest | 28 Sep 2026 |
The titles are in the Headlines window, with the time each was published.
Headlines as of 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.
Questions
- What is TSM's IV rank?
- TSM's IV rank is 64 of 100 on 28 Sep 2026.
- What move are TSM options pricing?
- On 28 Sep 2026, TSM options priced a move of 9.8 percent down and 10.7 percent up by 30 Oct 2026.
- Where are TSM's call wall and put wall?
- On 28 Sep 2026, TSM's call wall is the 500 strike and its put wall is the 420 strike.
- What was the latest Trade Card for TSM on the Free plan?
- On 25 Sep 2026 the Trade Card for TSM was a bull put spread expiring 18 Dec 2026, paper trading.
- When does TSM report earnings next?
- TSM reports next on 15 Oct 2026, and options priced an earnings move of 6.4 percent through 16 Oct 2026.
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Guides and the full list
- Every covered stock, fund and index, A to Z
- Reading the options suite
- Options for beginners
- How Trade Cards work
- Words the desk uses
Membership gets tonight's signals the night they publish. Free gets every options screen, never delayed, and the signals one trading day behind.