Materials

USA Rare Earth, Inc. (USAR) options and signal

Figures as of 28 Sep 2026

USAR is USA Rare Earth, Inc., a Materials name the model ranks every trading day. The options figures are from the close on 28 Sep 2026. The model's figures are from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind the latest, as the Free plan shows them. Every model figure is paper trading.

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At a glance

Figure	Value	Date
Trade Card	Long call, 20 Nov	25 Sep
Priced move to 30 Oct	19.7% down, 20.9% up	28 Sep
Call wall and put wall	20 and 15	28 Sep
Signal and the desk's view	Bullish signal, view bullish	25 Sep
Last close	14.41	28 Sep
Next report	5 Nov 2026	28 Sep

Trade Cards

On 25 Sep 2026 the Trade Card for USAR was a long call expiring 20 Nov 2026, paper trading.

Figure	Value
Signal	Bullish, over 20 trading days
Strategy	Long call, debit
Legs	Buy the 15 call
Expiry	20 Nov 2026, 56 days to expiry
Limit	A debit of at most $2.05
Probability of profit	34%, the option market's odds at expiry, from delta
Max loss	$205 per contract
Breakeven	17.05

Probability of profit is the option market's own odds from delta, not the model's.

Priced on the option chain at the close on 25 Sep 2026.

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Options Snapshot

USAR's at the money implied volatility is 69.8 percent on 28 Sep 2026.

Figure	Value
IV rank	Not stated, 51 weeks of record
At the money IV	69.8%, near month, 32 days
Put/call ratio, open interest	1.16
Call open interest, strikes captured near the price	120,000 contracts
Put open interest, strikes captured near the price	139,000 contracts
Cost to trade at the money	Fair, 22.9% of the option's mid price

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Priced Range

On 28 Sep 2026, USAR options priced a move of 19.7 percent down and 20.9 percent up by 30 Oct 2026.

Expiry	Days	Down	Up	Range
2 Oct 2026	4	6.2%	6.7%	13.52 to 15.39
9 Oct 2026	11	10.7%	11.4%	12.88 to 16.06
23 Oct 2026	25	16.5%	18.7%	12.04 to 17.11
30 Oct 2026	32	19.7%	20.9%	11.57 to 17.42
20 Nov 2026	53	27.7%	29.3%	10.42 to 18.64
18 Dec 2026	81	34.6%	37.0%	9.42 to 19.74
19 Mar 2027	172	51.5%	56.6%	6.98 to 22.57

The range is one standard deviation either side of the close of 14.41, as the option prices imply it.

A priced move restates option prices at the close and says nothing certain about where the price goes.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Gamma Map

On 28 Sep 2026, USAR's call wall is the 20 strike and its put wall is the 15 strike.

Figure	Value
Call wall, most open call gamma	20
Put wall, most open put gamma	15
Net dollar gamma, calls minus puts	minus $1.13 million
Total dollar gamma, both sides	$3.98 million
Close	14.41

Dollar gamma is stated for a one percent move in the price.

Net is calls minus puts under the standard convention, not a record of who holds the contracts.

Net gamma changes sign at 3 strikes, so no single flip strike is named.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Volatility History

On 28 Sep 2026, USAR's at the money IV is 69.8 percent against 20 day realized volatility of 57.2 percent.

Figure	Value
At the money IV	69.8%
Realized volatility, 20 trading days	57.2%
Realized volatility, 60 trading days	79.5%
Weekly readings on record	51, from 25 Apr 2025

Realized volatility is worked out from the daily closes the desk holds, not from the option chain.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Volatility Weather

On 28 Sep 2026, USAR's at the money IV runs from 63.0 percent at 4 days to 80.8 percent at 172 days.

Days to expiry	At the money IV
4	63.0%
11	63.6%
18	64.1%
25	68.7%
39	72.8%
53	75.8%
81	76.2%
172	80.8%

Far expiries price more volatility than near ones, an upward sloping term structure.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Volatility Smile

On 28 Sep 2026, at the 32 day expiry, USAR's IV ten percent below the price sits 1.4 points above at the money IV.

Strike area	Implied volatility	Against at the money
10% below the price	71.2%	+1.4 points
At the money	69.8%	0.0 points
10% above the price	68.9%	-0.9 points

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Volatility Surface

On 28 Sep 2026, USAR's surface spans 10 expiries out to 172 days, with IV from 63.2 to 80.1 percent near the price.

Figure	Value
Expiries captured	10
Nearest expiry	2 Oct 2026, 4 days
Farthest expiry	19 Mar 2027, 172 days
Points within 10% of the price, 7 days out or more	39
Lowest IV among them	63.2%
Highest IV among them	80.1%

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Expiry Ladder

On 28 Sep 2026, USAR has 10 captured expiries, from 2 Oct 2026 to 19 Mar 2027.

Expiry	Days	At the money IV	Call open interest	Put open interest
2 Oct 2026	4	63.0%	3,972	12,421
9 Oct 2026	11	63.6%	1,935	4,427
16 Oct 2026	18	64.1%	16,952	13,620
23 Oct 2026	25	68.7%	7,583	2,695
30 Oct 2026	32	69.8%	2,329	4,089
6 Nov 2026	39	72.8%	104	80
20 Nov 2026	53	75.8%	8,109	7,758
18 Dec 2026	81	76.2%	21,024	41,275
15 Jan 2027	109	78.8%	46,376	44,164
19 Mar 2027	172	80.8%	11,522	8,935

Open interest is summed over the strikes captured near the price on each expiry.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Strike Table

On 28 Sep 2026, USAR's largest open interest sits at the 20 strike, with 39,283 contracts across the captured expiries.

Strike	Call open interest	Put open interest	Total
20	21,647	17,636	39,283
15	6,251	20,042	26,293
16	7,205	16,255	23,460
25	14,869	5,690	20,559
17	9,011	10,655	19,666
18	13,539	4,483	18,022

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Since Yesterday

From 25 Sep 2026 to 28 Sep 2026, USAR's at the money IV moved from 66.4 percent to 69.8 percent.

Figure	25 Sep	28 Sep	Change
At the money IV	66.4%	69.8%	+3.4 points
Open interest, strikes captured near the price	284,472	259,370	-25,102
Put/call ratio, open interest	0.90	1.16	+0.26

Open interest changes cannot identify buyers or sellers.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Changed Hands

On 28 Sep 2026, 38,541 USAR option contracts traded, 1.0 times its own recent average.

Figure	Value
Calls traded	22,527
Puts traded	16,014
Against its recent average	1.0 times
Busier than	12 of its last 20 trading days
Open interest, whole chain	386,544 contracts
Volume to open interest	0.10
Unusual volume flag	Yes, 10 contracts traded well above open interest
Largest flagged contract	The 15.5 call expiring 2 Oct, 1,476 traded against 464 open

Traded volume and open interest are shown side by side and never combined. Open interest changes cannot identify buyers or sellers.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Positioning Replay

The replay holds 33 trading days of USAR's option positioning, from 11 Aug 2026 to 28 Sep 2026.

Date	Close	Net dollar gamma	Top call strike	Top put strike
11 Aug 2026	18.91	$1.14 million	20	20
21 Sep 2026	16.78	minus $175,101	18	15
28 Sep 2026	14.41	minus $1.13 million	20	15

Each frame restates one nightly capture. Net is calls minus puts, a convention, not who holds the contracts.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Read-out

On 25 Sep 2026 the desk's view of USAR was bullish, paper trading.

Figure	Value
Side	Bullish at 20 trading days, signal on
Level above the close	14.88, the swing high of 16 Sep 2026
Level below the close	12.93, the swing low of 29 Jul 2026, a close past it runs against the view
The chart	Sits against the view
Strategy family	Long call (buy a call)
Price target	None. The desk has no price model.

The levels are prices the shares turned at on the chart, with the date of each.

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Rank by Timeframe

On 25 Sep 2026 USAR sat at the 84th percentile of the model's 45 trading day ranking, paper trading.

Timeframe	Percentile	Side
10 trading days	91 of 100	Bullish
20 trading days	100 of 100	Bullish
45 trading days	84 of 100	Bullish

100 is the top of the ranking. A name in the middle three fifths is neutral.

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Timeframe Agreement

On 25 Sep 2026, 3 of 3 timeframes put USAR on the bullish side, paper trading.

Group	Timeframes	Side	On that side
Near	10 day, 20 day	Bullish	2 of 2
Long	45 day	Bullish	1 of 1

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Signal History

On 25 Sep 2026 USAR's bullish signal had held 2 trading days in a row, paper trading.

Trading day	Signal	45 day percentile
25 Sep 2026	Bullish	84 of 100
24 Sep 2026	Bullish	82 of 100
23 Sep 2026	None	43 of 100
22 Sep 2026	None	15 of 100
21 Sep 2026	None	38 of 100
18 Sep 2026	None	86 of 100
17 Sep 2026	None	75 of 100
16 Sep 2026	None	51 of 100

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Sector Split

On 25 Sep 2026, 35 of 62 Materials names were bullish and 11 were bearish, paper trading.

Sector	Names	Bullish	Bearish	Neutral
Materials	62	35	11	16

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Price Chart

USAR closed at 14.41 on 28 Sep 2026.

Figure	Value
Last close	14.41
Change over 5 trading days	-14.1%
Change over 21 trading days	-25.1%
Change over 63 trading days	-31.5%
Change over 252 trading days	-20.8%
52 week high	43.98
52 week low	11.45
20 day moving average	16.32
50 day moving average	16.85
200 day moving average	19.36
RSI, 14 days	36

Worked out from the desk's own daily bars, adjusted for share splits.

From the daily bars through 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Earnings Radar

USAR reports next on 5 Nov 2026, a date worked out from past quarters.

Figure	Value
Next report	5 Nov 2026, after the close
Date	Worked out from past quarters
Move after the report of 10 Aug 2026	-0.7%
Move after the report of 11 May 2026	-2.9%
Move after the report of 10 Feb 2026	-0.5%
Move after the report of 10 Nov 2025	+3.1%

Earnings calendar as of 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Company Events

USAR filed 1 current report in the 14 days to 28 Sep 2026, the latest on 15 Sep 2026.

Filed	Report	What it covers
15 Sep 2026	Current report	Other Events

Filings as of 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Seasonality

In the 3 Septembers on record, USAR's average change was plus 5.5 percent, and it rose in 100.0 percent of them.

Month	Average change	Middle change	Share of years up	Years
September	+5.5%	+0.8%	100.0%	3
October	+4.5%	+0.1%	100.0%	3
November	-9.9%	+0.6%	66.7%	3

Each figure is a month end to month end change in past years. A past month says nothing certain about the next one.

Monthly history through 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Headlines

The desk's news feeds carried 1 headline naming USAR in the 3 days to 28 Sep 2026.

Figure	Value
Headlines in the window	1
Latest	27 Sep 2026

The titles are in the Headlines window, with the time each was published.

Headlines as of 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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The Desk Analyst

The Free plan shows the first paragraph of The Desk Analyst's column on USAR for 25 Sep 2026, quoted below.

The share price closed at 15.18, which is 21.7% below the 200-day simple moving average of 19.37.

The close is also below the 5-day average of 16.03, the 20-day average of 16.5, the 50-day average of 16.87, and the 100-day average of 19.95.

Paper trading. Column for 25 Sep 2026, general commentary published the same way to every reader.

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Questions

What is USAR's IV rank?: USAR's at the money implied volatility is 69.8 percent on 28 Sep 2026.
What move are USAR options pricing?: On 28 Sep 2026, USAR options priced a move of 19.7 percent down and 20.9 percent up by 30 Oct 2026.
Where are USAR's call wall and put wall?: On 28 Sep 2026, USAR's call wall is the 20 strike and its put wall is the 15 strike.
What was the latest Trade Card for USAR on the Free plan?: On 25 Sep 2026 the Trade Card for USAR was a long call expiring 20 Nov 2026, paper trading.
When does USAR report earnings next?: USAR reports next on 5 Nov 2026, a date worked out from past quarters.

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