Industrials

American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) options and signal

Figures as of 28 Sep 2026

AAL is American Airlines Group Inc., an Industrials name the model ranks every trading day. The options figures are from the close on 28 Sep 2026. The model's figures are from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind the latest, as the Free plan shows them. Every model figure is paper trading.

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At a glance

Figure	Value	Date
Trade Card	Cash-secured put, 20 Nov	25 Sep
IV rank	82 of 100	28 Sep
At the money IV	52.2%	28 Sep
Priced move to 30 Oct	15.2% down, 15.9% up	28 Sep
Call wall and put wall	14 and 12	28 Sep
Signal and the desk's view	Bullish signal, view bullish	25 Sep
Last close	13.52	28 Sep
Next report	22 Oct 2026	28 Sep

Trade Cards

On 25 Sep 2026 the Trade Card for AAL was a cash-secured put expiring 20 Nov 2026, paper trading.

Figure	Value
Signal	Bullish, over 20 trading days
Strategy	Cash-secured put, credit
Legs	Sell the 13 put
Expiry	20 Nov 2026, 56 days to expiry
Limit	A credit of at least $0.60
Probability of profit	62%, the option market's odds at expiry, from delta
Max loss	$1,240 per contract
Max profit	$60 per contract
Breakeven	12.40
IV rank at that expiry	77 of 100

Probability of profit is the option market's own odds from delta, not the model's.

Priced on the option chain at the close on 25 Sep 2026.

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Options Snapshot

AAL's IV rank is 82 of 100 on 28 Sep 2026.

Figure	Value
IV rank	82 of 100
At the money IV	52.2%, near month, 32 days
Put/call ratio, open interest	1.14
Call open interest, strikes captured near the price	471,000 contracts
Put open interest, strikes captured near the price	539,000 contracts
Cost to trade at the money	Fair, 28.0% of the option's mid price

IV rank is where the at the money IV sits among AAL's own weekly readings, 0 the lowest and 100 the highest.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Priced Range

On 28 Sep 2026, AAL options priced a move of 15.2 percent down and 15.9 percent up by 30 Oct 2026.

Expiry	Days	Down	Up	Range
2 Oct 2026	4	5.1%	5.3%	12.83 to 14.24
9 Oct 2026	11	9.1%	9.5%	12.29 to 14.80
23 Oct 2026	25	13.2%	14.1%	11.74 to 15.43
30 Oct 2026	32	15.2%	15.9%	11.47 to 15.67
20 Nov 2026	53	18.0%	20.7%	11.09 to 16.32
18 Dec 2026	81	21.7%	24.0%	10.59 to 16.77
19 Feb 2027	144	29.1%	33.0%	9.59 to 17.98

The range is one standard deviation either side of the close of 13.52, as the option prices imply it.

A priced move restates option prices at the close and says nothing certain about where the price goes.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Gamma Map

On 28 Sep 2026, AAL's call wall is the 14 strike and its put wall is the 12 strike.

Figure	Value
Call wall, most open call gamma	14
Put wall, most open put gamma	12
Net dollar gamma, calls minus puts	$1.32 million
Total dollar gamma, both sides	$20.34 million
Close	13.52

Dollar gamma is stated for a one percent move in the price.

Net is calls minus puts under the standard convention, not a record of who holds the contracts.

Net gamma changes sign at 2 strikes, so no single flip strike is named.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Volatility History

On 28 Sep 2026, AAL's at the money IV is 52.2 percent against 20 day realized volatility of 32.9 percent.

Figure	Value
At the money IV	52.2%
Realized volatility, 20 trading days	32.9%
Realized volatility, 60 trading days	44.4%
IV against its own weekly record	High, in the top fifth
Weekly readings on record	643, from 20 Dec 2013
Weeks the price moved more than the one week priced move	26.3% of 236 weeks

Realized volatility is worked out from the daily closes the desk holds, not from the option chain.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

Open Volatility History in RingMaster The Volatility History guide

Volatility Weather

On 28 Sep 2026, AAL's at the money IV runs from 50.8 percent at 4 days to 49.5 percent at 144 days.

Days to expiry	At the money IV
4	50.8%
11	51.6%
18	52.8%
25	52.0%
39	57.0%
53	50.9%
81	48.6%
144	49.5%

Near expiries price more volatility than far ones, an inverted term structure.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Volatility Smile

On 28 Sep 2026, at the 32 day expiry, AAL's IV ten percent below the price sits 5.7 points above at the money IV.

Strike area	Implied volatility	Against at the money
10% below the price	57.9%	+5.7 points
At the money	52.2%	0.0 points
10% above the price	52.9%	+0.7 points

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Volatility Surface

On 28 Sep 2026, AAL's surface spans 10 expiries out to 144 days, with IV from 47.9 to 65.6 percent near the price.

Figure	Value
Expiries captured	10
Nearest expiry	2 Oct 2026, 4 days
Farthest expiry	19 Feb 2027, 144 days
Points within 10% of the price, 7 days out or more	32
Lowest IV among them	47.9%
Highest IV among them	65.6%

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Expiry Ladder

On 28 Sep 2026, AAL has 10 captured expiries, from 2 Oct 2026 to 19 Feb 2027.

Expiry	Days	At the money IV	Call open interest	Put open interest
2 Oct 2026	4	50.8%	66,694	20,435
9 Oct 2026	11	51.6%	13,571	12,937
16 Oct 2026	18	52.8%	61,916	48,051
23 Oct 2026	25	52.0%	6,109	7,348
30 Oct 2026	32	52.2%	6,541	4,043
6 Nov 2026	39	57.0%	467	41
20 Nov 2026	53	50.9%	89,581	74,960
18 Dec 2026	81	48.6%	97,011	135,549
15 Jan 2027	109	48.6%	122,589	217,258
19 Feb 2027	144	49.5%	6,297	18,197

Open interest is summed over the strikes captured near the price on each expiry.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Strike Table

On 28 Sep 2026, AAL's largest open interest sits at the 15 strike, with 158,693 contracts across the captured expiries.

Strike	Call open interest	Put open interest	Total
15	107,516	51,177	158,693
12	22,533	120,436	142,969
10	12,688	125,321	138,009
14	74,956	24,283	99,239
20	65,577	14,509	80,086
13	23,225	49,653	72,878

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Since Yesterday

From 25 Sep 2026 to 28 Sep 2026, AAL's at the money IV moved from 53.2 percent to 52.2 percent.

Figure	25 Sep	28 Sep	Change
At the money IV	53.2%	52.2%	-1.0 points
Open interest, strikes captured near the price	1.08 million	1.01 million	-75,288
Put/call ratio, open interest	1.25	1.14	-0.11

Open interest changes cannot identify buyers or sellers.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Changed Hands

On 28 Sep 2026, 56,004 AAL option contracts traded, 0.5 times its own recent average.

Figure	Value
Calls traded	31,777
Puts traded	24,227
Against its recent average	0.5 times
Busier than	5 of its last 20 trading days
Open interest, whole chain	1.37 million contracts
Volume to open interest	0.04
Unusual volume flag	Yes, 1 contract traded well above open interest
Largest flagged contract	The 11 put expiring 23 Oct, 1,190 traded against 172 open

Traded volume and open interest are shown side by side and never combined. Open interest changes cannot identify buyers or sellers.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Positioning Replay

The replay holds 33 trading days of AAL's option positioning, from 11 Aug 2026 to 28 Sep 2026.

Date	Close	Net dollar gamma	Top call strike	Top put strike
11 Aug 2026	15.29	$3.21 million	15	15
21 Sep 2026	13.57	$3 million	14	12
28 Sep 2026	13.52	$1.32 million	14	12

Each frame restates one nightly capture. Net is calls minus puts, a convention, not who holds the contracts.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Read-out

On 25 Sep 2026 the desk's view of AAL was bullish, paper trading.

Figure	Value
Side	Bullish at 20 trading days, signal on
Level above the close	14.06, the swing high of 22 Sep 2026
Level below the close	13.28, the swing low of 16 Sep 2026, a close past it runs against the view
The chart	Sits against the view
Strategy family	Cash-secured put (sell a put below the price)
Price target	None. The desk has no price model.

The levels are prices the shares turned at on the chart, with the date of each.

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Rank by Timeframe

On 25 Sep 2026 AAL sat at the 73rd percentile of the model's 45 trading day ranking, paper trading.

Timeframe	Percentile	Side
10 trading days	72 of 100	Neutral
20 trading days	98 of 100	Bullish
45 trading days	73 of 100	Neutral

100 is the top of the ranking. A name in the middle three fifths is neutral.

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Timeframe Agreement

On 25 Sep 2026, 1 of 3 timeframes put AAL on the bullish side, paper trading.

Group	Timeframes	Side	On that side
Near	10 day, 20 day	Bullish	1 of 2
Long	45 day	Neutral	0 of 1

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Signal History

On 25 Sep 2026 AAL's bullish signal began that trading day, paper trading.

Trading day	Signal	45 day percentile
25 Sep 2026	Bullish	73 of 100
24 Sep 2026	None	52 of 100
23 Sep 2026	None	40 of 100
22 Sep 2026	None	31 of 100
21 Sep 2026	None	52 of 100
18 Sep 2026	None	48 of 100
17 Sep 2026	None	76 of 100
16 Sep 2026	None	63 of 100

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Sector Split

On 25 Sep 2026, 51 of 147 Industrials names were bullish and 37 were bearish, paper trading.

Sector	Names	Bullish	Bearish	Neutral
Industrials	147	51	37	59

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Price Chart

AAL closed at 13.52 on 28 Sep 2026.

Figure	Value
Last close	13.52
Change over 5 trading days	-0.4%
Change over 21 trading days	-1.5%
Change over 63 trading days	-24.6%
Change over 252 trading days	+18.7%
52 week high	18.79
52 week low	10.09
20 day moving average	13.15
50 day moving average	14.14
200 day moving average	13.88
RSI, 14 days	50

Worked out from the desk's own daily bars, adjusted for share splits.

From the daily bars through 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Earnings Radar

AAL reports next on 22 Oct 2026, a date worked out from past quarters.

Figure	Value
Next report	22 Oct 2026, before the open
Date	Worked out from past quarters
Move after the report of 23 Jul 2026	-8.3%
Move after the report of 23 Apr 2026	+2.4%
Move after the report of 27 Jan 2026	-7.0%
Move after the report of 23 Oct 2025	+5.6%

Earnings calendar as of 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Seasonality

In the 20 Septembers on record, AAL's average change was minus 0.8 percent, and it rose in 50.0 percent of them.

Month	Average change	Middle change	Share of years up	Years
September	-0.8%	+0.2%	50.0%	20
October	+9.2%	+12.0%	70.0%	20
November	+3.7%	+7.0%	66.7%	21

Each figure is a month end to month end change in past years. A past month says nothing certain about the next one.

Monthly history through 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Headlines

The desk's news feeds carried 1 headline naming AAL in the 3 days to 28 Sep 2026.

Figure	Value
Headlines in the window	1
Latest	27 Sep 2026

The titles are in the Headlines window, with the time each was published.

Headlines as of 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Questions

What is AAL's IV rank?: AAL's IV rank is 82 of 100 on 28 Sep 2026.
What move are AAL options pricing?: On 28 Sep 2026, AAL options priced a move of 15.2 percent down and 15.9 percent up by 30 Oct 2026.
Where are AAL's call wall and put wall?: On 28 Sep 2026, AAL's call wall is the 14 strike and its put wall is the 12 strike.
What was the latest Trade Card for AAL on the Free plan?: On 25 Sep 2026 the Trade Card for AAL was a cash-secured put expiring 20 Nov 2026, paper trading.
When does AAL report earnings next?: AAL reports next on 22 Oct 2026, a date worked out from past quarters.

More Industrials names

Guides and the full list

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