Financials

Affirm Holdings, Inc. (AFRM) options and signal

Figures as of 28 Sep 2026

AFRM is Affirm Holdings, Inc., a Financials name the model ranks every trading day. The options figures are from the close on 28 Sep 2026. The model's figures are from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind the latest, as the Free plan shows them. Every model figure is paper trading.

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At a glance

Figure	Value	Date
Trade Card	Bull call spread, 18 Dec	25 Sep
IV rank	2 of 100	28 Sep
At the money IV	55.2%	28 Sep
Priced move to 30 Oct	15.2% down, 15.9% up	28 Sep
Call wall and put wall	80 and 70	28 Sep
Signal and the desk's view	Bullish signal, view bullish	25 Sep
Last close	67.21	28 Sep
Next report	5 Nov 2026	28 Sep

Trade Cards

On 25 Sep 2026 the Trade Card for AFRM was a bull call spread expiring 18 Dec 2026, paper trading.

Figure	Value
Signal	Bullish, over 45 trading days
Strategy	Bull call spread, debit
Legs	Buy the 70 call, Sell the 85 call
Expiry	18 Dec 2026, 84 days to expiry
Limit	A debit of at most $5.33
Probability of profit	40%, the option market's odds at expiry, from delta
Max loss	$533 per contract
Max profit	$967 per contract
Breakeven	75.33
IV rank at that expiry	7 of 100

Probability of profit is the option market's own odds from delta, not the model's.

Priced on the option chain at the close on 25 Sep 2026.

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Options Snapshot

AFRM's IV rank is 2 of 100 on 28 Sep 2026.

Figure	Value
IV rank	2 of 100
At the money IV	55.2%, near month, 32 days
Put/call ratio, open interest	0.95
Call open interest, strikes captured near the price	78,900 contracts
Put open interest, strikes captured near the price	75,100 contracts
Cost to trade at the money	Wide, 62.2% of the option's mid price

IV rank is where the at the money IV sits among AFRM's own weekly readings, 0 the lowest and 100 the highest.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Priced Range

On 28 Sep 2026, AFRM options priced a move of 15.2 percent down and 15.9 percent up by 30 Oct 2026.

Expiry	Days	Down	Up	Range
2 Oct 2026	4	5.5%	6.1%	63.54 to 71.29
9 Oct 2026	11	9.2%	10.5%	61.05 to 74.25
23 Oct 2026	25	13.6%	14.8%	58.10 to 77.17
30 Oct 2026	32	15.2%	15.9%	57.01 to 77.91
20 Nov 2026	53	24.3%	24.8%	50.91 to 83.91
18 Dec 2026	81	26.2%	28.4%	49.61 to 86.31
19 Feb 2027	144	36.0%	39.3%	43.01 to 93.61

The range is one standard deviation either side of the close of 67.21, as the option prices imply it.

A priced move restates option prices at the close and says nothing certain about where the price goes.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Gamma Map

On 28 Sep 2026, AFRM's call wall is the 80 strike and its put wall is the 70 strike.

Figure	Value
Call wall, most open call gamma	80
Put wall, most open put gamma	70
Net dollar gamma, calls minus puts	minus $1.87 million
Total dollar gamma, both sides	$13.73 million
Close	67.21

Dollar gamma is stated for a one percent move in the price.

Net is calls minus puts under the standard convention, not a record of who holds the contracts.

Net gamma changes sign at 3 strikes, so no single flip strike is named.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Volatility History

On 28 Sep 2026, AFRM's at the money IV is 55.2 percent against 20 day realized volatility of 57.8 percent.

Figure	Value
At the money IV	55.2%
Realized volatility, 20 trading days	57.8%
Realized volatility, 60 trading days	50.3%
IV against its own weekly record	Low, in the bottom fifth
Weekly readings on record	271, from 5 Feb 2021
Weeks the price moved more than the one week priced move	29.7% of 236 weeks

Realized volatility is worked out from the daily closes the desk holds, not from the option chain.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

Open Volatility History in RingMaster The Volatility History guide

Volatility Weather

On 28 Sep 2026, AFRM's at the money IV runs from 55.3 percent at 4 days to 63.1 percent at 144 days.

Days to expiry	At the money IV
4	55.3%
11	61.0%
18	56.5%
25	52.5%
39	67.5%
53	61.8%
81	58.9%
144	63.1%

Far expiries price more volatility than near ones, an upward sloping term structure.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Volatility Smile

On 28 Sep 2026, at the 32 day expiry, AFRM's IV ten percent below the price sits 3.0 points above at the money IV.

Strike area	Implied volatility	Against at the money
10% below the price	58.1%	+3.0 points
At the money	55.2%	0.0 points
10% above the price	52.6%	-2.6 points

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Volatility Surface

On 28 Sep 2026, AFRM's surface spans 10 expiries out to 144 days, with IV from 51.0 to 70.0 percent near the price.

Figure	Value
Expiries captured	10
Nearest expiry	2 Oct 2026, 4 days
Farthest expiry	19 Feb 2027, 144 days
Points within 10% of the price, 7 days out or more	82
Lowest IV among them	51.0%
Highest IV among them	70.0%

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Expiry Ladder

On 28 Sep 2026, AFRM has 10 captured expiries, from 2 Oct 2026 to 19 Feb 2027.

Expiry	Days	At the money IV	Call open interest	Put open interest
2 Oct 2026	4	55.3%	4,750	4,255
9 Oct 2026	11	61.0%	2,432	3,177
16 Oct 2026	18	56.5%	13,388	11,567
23 Oct 2026	25	52.5%	776	1,000
30 Oct 2026	32	55.2%	960	345
6 Nov 2026	39	67.5%	18	11
20 Nov 2026	53	61.8%	11,045	12,773
18 Dec 2026	81	58.9%	19,136	16,516
15 Jan 2027	109	56.3%	24,432	23,902
19 Feb 2027	144	63.1%	1,984	1,559

Open interest is summed over the strikes captured near the price on each expiry.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Strike Table

On 28 Sep 2026, AFRM's largest open interest sits at the 80 strike, with 13,505 contracts across the captured expiries.

Strike	Call open interest	Put open interest	Total
80	11,128	2,377	13,505
70	5,198	6,456	11,654
60	2,017	9,195	11,212
100	7,169	188	7,357
65	1,197	5,724	6,921
75	5,050	1,693	6,743

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Since Yesterday

From 25 Sep 2026 to 28 Sep 2026, AFRM's at the money IV moved from 52.7 percent to 55.2 percent.

Figure	25 Sep	28 Sep	Change
At the money IV	52.7%	55.2%	+2.5 points
Open interest, strikes captured near the price	162,260	154,026	-8,234
Put/call ratio, open interest	0.97	0.95	-0.02

Open interest changes cannot identify buyers or sellers.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Changed Hands

On 28 Sep 2026, 23,586 AFRM option contracts traded, 1.2 times its own recent average.

Figure	Value
Calls traded	11,985
Puts traded	11,601
Against its recent average	1.2 times
Busier than	15 of its last 20 trading days
Open interest, whole chain	196,765 contracts
Volume to open interest	0.12
Unusual volume flag	Yes, 4 contracts traded well above open interest
Largest flagged contract	The 73 call expiring 2 Oct, 1,601 traded against 201 open

Traded volume and open interest are shown side by side and never combined. Open interest changes cannot identify buyers or sellers.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Positioning Replay

The replay holds 33 trading days of AFRM's option positioning, from 11 Aug 2026 to 28 Sep 2026.

Date	Close	Net dollar gamma	Top call strike	Top put strike
11 Aug 2026	76.70	$1.51 million	80	75
21 Sep 2026	71.05	$291,168	80	70
28 Sep 2026	67.21	minus $1.87 million	80	70

Each frame restates one nightly capture. Net is calls minus puts, a convention, not who holds the contracts.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Read-out

On 25 Sep 2026 the desk's view of AFRM was bullish, paper trading.

Figure	Value
Side	Bullish at 45 trading days, signal on
Level above the close	69.61, the swing high of 18 Sep 2026
Level below the close	66.62, the swing low of 23 Sep 2026, a close past it runs against the view
The chart	Sits against the view
Strategy family	Bull call spread (buy a call spread)
Price target	None. The desk has no price model.

The levels are prices the shares turned at on the chart, with the date of each.

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Rank by Timeframe

On 25 Sep 2026 AFRM sat at the 97th percentile of the model's 45 trading day ranking, paper trading.

Timeframe	Percentile	Side
10 trading days	84 of 100	Bullish
20 trading days	92 of 100	Bullish
45 trading days	97 of 100	Bullish

100 is the top of the ranking. A name in the middle three fifths is neutral.

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Timeframe Agreement

On 25 Sep 2026, 3 of 3 timeframes put AFRM on the bullish side, paper trading.

Group	Timeframes	Side	On that side
Near	10 day, 20 day	Bullish	2 of 2
Long	45 day	Bullish	1 of 1

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Signal History

On 25 Sep 2026 AFRM's bullish signal had held 2 trading days in a row, paper trading.

Trading day	Signal	45 day percentile
25 Sep 2026	Bullish	97 of 100
24 Sep 2026	Bullish	97 of 100
23 Sep 2026	None	79 of 100
22 Sep 2026	None	91 of 100
21 Sep 2026	None	90 of 100
18 Sep 2026	None	89 of 100
17 Sep 2026	None	85 of 100
16 Sep 2026	None	79 of 100

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Sector Split

On 25 Sep 2026, 63 of 135 Financials names were bullish and 32 were bearish, paper trading.

Sector	Names	Bullish	Bearish	Neutral
Financials	135	63	32	40

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Price Chart

AFRM closed at 67.21 on 28 Sep 2026.

Figure	Value
Last close	67.21
Change over 5 trading days	-5.4%
Change over 21 trading days	-13.3%
Change over 63 trading days	-17.8%
Change over 252 trading days	-13.8%
52 week high	90.44
52 week low	42.09
20 day moving average	71.23
50 day moving average	73.61
200 day moving average	66.75
RSI, 14 days	40

Worked out from the desk's own daily bars, adjusted for share splits.

From the daily bars through 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Earnings Radar

AFRM reports next on 5 Nov 2026, a date worked out from past quarters.

Figure	Value
Next report	5 Nov 2026, after the close
Date	Worked out from past quarters
Move after the report of 27 Aug 2026	+0.3%
Move after the report of 7 May 2026	-5.0%
Move after the report of 5 Feb 2026	-4.0%
Move after the report of 6 Nov 2025	+11.6%

Earnings calendar as of 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Seasonality

In the 5 Septembers on record, AFRM's average change was minus 3.7 percent, and it rose in 40.0 percent of them.

Month	Average change	Middle change	Share of years up	Years
September	-3.7%	-7.2%	40.0%	5
October	+6.4%	+7.0%	60.0%	5
November	+20.2%	-1.3%	40.0%	5

Each figure is a month end to month end change in past years. A past month says nothing certain about the next one.

Monthly history through 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Headlines

The desk's news feeds carried 5 headlines naming AFRM in the 3 days to 28 Sep 2026.

Figure	Value
Headlines in the window	5
Latest	28 Sep 2026

The titles are in the Headlines window, with the time each was published.

Headlines as of 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Questions

What is AFRM's IV rank?: AFRM's IV rank is 2 of 100 on 28 Sep 2026.
What move are AFRM options pricing?: On 28 Sep 2026, AFRM options priced a move of 15.2 percent down and 15.9 percent up by 30 Oct 2026.
Where are AFRM's call wall and put wall?: On 28 Sep 2026, AFRM's call wall is the 80 strike and its put wall is the 70 strike.
What was the latest Trade Card for AFRM on the Free plan?: On 25 Sep 2026 the Trade Card for AFRM was a bull call spread expiring 18 Dec 2026, paper trading.
When does AFRM report earnings next?: AFRM reports next on 5 Nov 2026, a date worked out from past quarters.

More Financials names

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