Consumer Discretionary

Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) options and signal

Figures as of 28 Sep 2026

CMG is Chipotle Mexican Grill, a Consumer Discretionary name the model ranks every trading day. The options figures are from the close on 28 Sep 2026. The model's figures are from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind the latest, as the Free plan shows them. Every model figure is paper trading.

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At a glance

Figure	Value	Date
Trade Card	Iron condor, 30 Oct	25 Sep
IV rank	99 of 100	28 Sep
At the money IV	51.6%	28 Sep
Priced move to 30 Oct	15.2% down, 15.1% up	28 Sep
Call wall and put wall	35 and 28	28 Sep
Signal and the desk's view	No signal, view neutral	25 Sep
Last close	31.85	28 Sep
Next report	28 Oct 2026	28 Sep

Trade Cards

On 25 Sep 2026 the Trade Card for CMG was an iron condor expiring 30 Oct 2026, paper trading.

Figure	Value
Signal	Neutral
Strategy	Iron condor, credit
Legs	Buy the 25 put, Sell the 28 put, Sell the 37 call, Buy the 42 call
Expiry	30 Oct 2026, 35 days to expiry
Limit	A credit of at least $0.53
Probability of profit	70%, the option market's odds at expiry, from delta
Max loss	$447 per contract
Max profit	$53 per contract
Breakeven	27.47 and 37.53
IV rank at that expiry	98 of 100

Probability of profit is the option market's own odds from delta, not the model's.

Priced on the option chain at the close on 25 Sep 2026.

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Options Snapshot

CMG's IV rank is 99 of 100 on 28 Sep 2026.

Figure	Value
IV rank	99 of 100
At the money IV	51.6%, near month, 32 days
Put/call ratio, open interest	1.32
Call open interest, strikes captured near the price	187,000 contracts
Put open interest, strikes captured near the price	247,000 contracts
Cost to trade at the money	Fair, 23.4% of the option's mid price

IV rank is where the at the money IV sits among CMG's own weekly readings, 0 the lowest and 100 the highest.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Priced Range

On 28 Sep 2026, CMG options priced a move of 15.2 percent down and 15.1 percent up by 30 Oct 2026.

Expiry	Days	Down	Up	Range
2 Oct 2026	4	5.3%	5.5%	30.16 to 33.60
9 Oct 2026	11	8.1%	8.2%	29.27 to 34.46
23 Oct 2026	25	11.2%	11.7%	28.29 to 35.59
30 Oct 2026	32	15.2%	15.1%	27.01 to 36.66
20 Nov 2026	53	17.8%	19.3%	26.18 to 38.01
18 Dec 2026	81	20.4%	22.3%	25.35 to 38.95
19 Mar 2027	172	27.9%	33.3%	22.97 to 42.45

The range is one standard deviation either side of the close of 31.85, as the option prices imply it.

A priced move restates option prices at the close and says nothing certain about where the price goes.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Gamma Map

On 28 Sep 2026, CMG's call wall is the 35 strike and its put wall is the 28 strike.

Figure	Value
Call wall, most open call gamma	35
Put wall, most open put gamma	28
Net dollar gamma, calls minus puts	minus $6.38 million
Total dollar gamma, both sides	$21.15 million
Close	31.85

Dollar gamma is stated for a one percent move in the price.

Net is calls minus puts under the standard convention, not a record of who holds the contracts.

Net gamma changes sign at 2 strikes, so no single flip strike is named.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Volatility History

On 28 Sep 2026, CMG's at the money IV is 51.6 percent against 20 day realized volatility of 32.2 percent.

Figure	Value
At the money IV	51.6%
Realized volatility, 20 trading days	32.2%
Realized volatility, 60 trading days	49.4%
IV against its own weekly record	High, in the top fifth
Weekly readings on record	865, from 8 Jan 2010
Weeks the price moved more than the one week priced move	31.0% of 252 weeks

Realized volatility is worked out from the daily closes the desk holds, not from the option chain.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Volatility Weather

On 28 Sep 2026, CMG's at the money IV runs from 55.2 percent at 4 days to 43.3 percent at 172 days.

Days to expiry	At the money IV
4	55.2%
11	47.6%
18	45.9%
25	44.3%
39	52.3%
53	47.9%
81	45.8%
172	43.3%

Near expiries price more volatility than far ones, an inverted term structure.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Volatility Smile

On 28 Sep 2026, at the 32 day expiry, CMG's IV ten percent below the price sits 1.0 points above at the money IV.

Strike area	Implied volatility	Against at the money
10% below the price	52.6%	+1.0 points
At the money	51.6%	0.0 points
10% above the price	52.9%	+1.2 points

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Volatility Surface

On 28 Sep 2026, CMG's surface spans 10 expiries out to 172 days, with IV from 40.9 to 63.3 percent near the price.

Figure	Value
Expiries captured	10
Nearest expiry	2 Oct 2026, 4 days
Farthest expiry	19 Mar 2027, 172 days
Points within 10% of the price, 7 days out or more	65
Lowest IV among them	40.9%
Highest IV among them	63.3%

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Expiry Ladder

On 28 Sep 2026, CMG has 10 captured expiries, from 2 Oct 2026 to 19 Mar 2027.

Expiry	Days	At the money IV	Call open interest	Put open interest
2 Oct 2026	4	55.2%	8,170	7,438
9 Oct 2026	11	47.6%	2,220	4,919
16 Oct 2026	18	45.9%	36,296	19,428
23 Oct 2026	25	44.3%	2,454	3,226
30 Oct 2026	32	51.6%	4,282	67,266
6 Nov 2026	39	52.3%	295	88
20 Nov 2026	53	47.9%	7,132	23,921
18 Dec 2026	81	45.8%	48,474	41,833
15 Jan 2027	109	42.7%	64,868	67,335
19 Mar 2027	172	43.3%	12,419	11,784

Open interest is summed over the strikes captured near the price on each expiry.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Strike Table

On 28 Sep 2026, CMG's largest open interest sits at the 28 strike, with 47,901 contracts across the captured expiries.

Strike	Call open interest	Put open interest	Total
28	80	47,821	47,901
40	28,339	12,078	40,417
35	17,950	18,463	36,413
27.5	646	34,237	34,883
37.5	19,931	12,542	32,473
30	6,129	19,964	26,093

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Since Yesterday

From 25 Sep 2026 to 28 Sep 2026, CMG's at the money IV moved from 38.5 percent to 51.6 percent.

Figure	25 Sep	28 Sep	Change
At the money IV	38.5%	51.6%	+13.1 points
Open interest, strikes captured near the price	406,186	433,848	+27,662
Put/call ratio, open interest	1.46	1.32	-0.14

Open interest changes cannot identify buyers or sellers.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Changed Hands

On 28 Sep 2026, 119,517 CMG option contracts traded, 3.4 times its own recent average.

Figure	Value
Calls traded	103,832
Puts traded	15,685
Against its recent average	3.4 times
Busier than	20 of its last 20 trading days
Open interest, whole chain	605,510 contracts
Volume to open interest	0.20
Unusual volume flag	Yes, 17 contracts traded well above open interest
Largest flagged contract	The 33 call expiring 9 Oct, 31,748 traded against 176 open

Traded volume and open interest are shown side by side and never combined. Open interest changes cannot identify buyers or sellers.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Positioning Replay

The replay holds 33 trading days of CMG's option positioning, from 11 Aug 2026 to 28 Sep 2026.

Date	Close	Net dollar gamma	Top call strike	Top put strike
11 Aug 2026	32.00	minus $5.84 million	35	32.5
21 Sep 2026	33.14	minus $6.3 million	35	28
28 Sep 2026	31.85	minus $6.38 million	35	28

Each frame restates one nightly capture. Net is calls minus puts, a convention, not who holds the contracts.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Read-out

On 25 Sep 2026 the desk's view of CMG was neutral, paper trading.

Figure	Value
Side	Neutral at 45 trading days, no signal
Level above the close	33.75, the swing high of 22 Sep 2026
Level below the close	31.14, the swing low of 28 Sep 2026
Strategy family	Iron condor (sell both sides, defined risk)
Price target	None. The desk has no price model.

The levels are prices the shares turned at on the chart, with the date of each.

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Rank by Timeframe

On 25 Sep 2026 CMG sat at the 24th percentile of the model's 45 trading day ranking, paper trading.

Timeframe	Percentile	Side
10 trading days	31 of 100	Neutral
20 trading days	56 of 100	Neutral
45 trading days	24 of 100	Neutral

100 is the top of the ranking. A name in the middle three fifths is neutral.

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Timeframe Agreement

On 25 Sep 2026 CMG's near timeframes were neutral and its long timeframe was neutral, paper trading.

Group	Timeframes	Side	On that side
Near	10 day, 20 day	Neutral	0 of 2
Long	45 day	Neutral	0 of 1

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Signal History

On 25 Sep 2026 CMG had carried no signal for at least 18 trading days, paper trading.

Trading day	Signal	45 day percentile
25 Sep 2026	None	24 of 100
24 Sep 2026	None	34 of 100
23 Sep 2026	None	27 of 100
22 Sep 2026	None	45 of 100
21 Sep 2026	None	40 of 100
18 Sep 2026	None	29 of 100
17 Sep 2026	None	28 of 100
16 Sep 2026	None	22 of 100

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Sector Split

On 25 Sep 2026, 27 of 106 Consumer Discretionary names were bullish and 33 were bearish, paper trading.

Sector	Names	Bullish	Bearish	Neutral
Consumer Discretionary	106	27	33	46

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Price Chart

CMG closed at 31.85 on 28 Sep 2026.

Figure	Value
Last close	31.85
Change over 5 trading days	-3.9%
Change over 21 trading days	-14.4%
Change over 63 trading days	-3.4%
Change over 252 trading days	-19.0%
52 week high	42.82
52 week low	28.04
20 day moving average	35.00
50 day moving average	34.73
200 day moving average	34.93
RSI, 14 days	34

Worked out from the desk's own daily bars, adjusted for share splits.

From the daily bars through 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Earnings Radar

CMG reports next on 28 Oct 2026, and options priced an earnings move of 11.7 percent through 30 Oct 2026.

Figure	Value
Next report	28 Oct 2026, after the close
Date	Confirmed by the company
Priced earnings move	11.7%, a straddle of $3.72 at the 32 strike, expiring 30 Oct 2026
Move after the report of 29 Jul 2026	+12.5%
Move after the report of 29 Apr 2026	+3.0%
Move after the report of 3 Feb 2026	+1.9%
Move after the report of 29 Oct 2025	-18.2%

The priced earnings move is the straddle's cost over the share price. It restates option prices and says nothing certain about the report.

Earnings calendar as of 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Company Events

CMG filed 1 current report in the 14 days to 28 Sep 2026, the latest on 14 Sep 2026.

Filed	Report	What it covers
14 Sep 2026	Current report	Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers

Filings as of 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Short Volume

On 25 Sep 2026, 27.5 percent of CMG's reported volume at the covered venues was marked short.

Figure	Value
Short sale share, 25 Sep	27.5%
Five day average	30.3%
52 week median	36.6%

Short sale volume counts trades marked short at the covered venues, mostly off exchange. It is not the same as short interest.

Short volume as of 25 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Seasonality

In the 20 Septembers on record, CMG's average change was plus 0.3 percent, and it rose in 50.0 percent of them.

Month	Average change	Middle change	Share of years up	Years
September	+0.3%	-0.8%	50.0%	20
October	-1.0%	-3.3%	35.0%	20
November	+4.0%	+3.8%	65.0%	20

Each figure is a month end to month end change in past years. A past month says nothing certain about the next one.

Monthly history through 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Headlines

The desk's news feeds carried 5 headlines naming CMG in the 3 days to 28 Sep 2026.

Figure	Value
Headlines in the window	5
Latest	28 Sep 2026

The titles are in the Headlines window, with the time each was published.

Headlines as of 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Questions

What is CMG's IV rank?: CMG's IV rank is 99 of 100 on 28 Sep 2026.
What move are CMG options pricing?: On 28 Sep 2026, CMG options priced a move of 15.2 percent down and 15.1 percent up by 30 Oct 2026.
Where are CMG's call wall and put wall?: On 28 Sep 2026, CMG's call wall is the 35 strike and its put wall is the 28 strike.
What was the latest Trade Card for CMG on the Free plan?: On 25 Sep 2026 the Trade Card for CMG was an iron condor expiring 30 Oct 2026, paper trading.
When does CMG report earnings next?: CMG reports next on 28 Oct 2026, and options priced an earnings move of 11.7 percent through 30 Oct 2026.

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