Consumer Discretionary

Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd (RCL) options and signal

Figures as of 28 Sep 2026

RCL is Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd, a Consumer Discretionary name the model ranks every trading day. The options figures are from the close on 28 Sep 2026. The model's figures are from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind the latest, as the Free plan shows them. Every model figure is paper trading.

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At a glance

Figure	Value	Date
IV rank	83 of 100	28 Sep
At the money IV	52.6%	28 Sep
Priced move to 30 Oct	14.9% down, 15.5% up	28 Sep
Call wall and put wall	270 and 250	28 Sep
Signal and the desk's view	No signal, view neutral	25 Sep
Last close	242.59	28 Sep
Next report	27 Oct 2026	28 Sep

Options Snapshot

RCL's IV rank is 83 of 100 on 28 Sep 2026.

Figure	Value
IV rank	83 of 100
At the money IV	52.6%, near month, 32 days
Put/call ratio, open interest	1.15
Call open interest, strikes captured near the price	37,800 contracts
Put open interest, strikes captured near the price	43,600 contracts
Cost to trade at the money	Fair, 20.4% of the option's mid price

IV rank is where the at the money IV sits among RCL's own weekly readings, 0 the lowest and 100 the highest.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Priced Range

On 28 Sep 2026, RCL options priced a move of 14.9 percent down and 15.5 percent up by 30 Oct 2026.

Expiry	Days	Down	Up	Range
2 Oct 2026	4	5.3%	5.5%	229.69 to 255.89
9 Oct 2026	11	8.8%	9.0%	221.19 to 264.39
23 Oct 2026	25	12.0%	13.6%	213.49 to 275.49
30 Oct 2026	32	14.9%	15.5%	206.39 to 280.29
20 Nov 2026	53	18.7%	19.5%	197.19 to 289.79
18 Dec 2026	81	21.8%	22.7%	189.79 to 297.69
19 Mar 2027	172	30.7%	32.7%	168.19 to 321.89

The range is one standard deviation either side of the close of 242.59, as the option prices imply it.

A priced move restates option prices at the close and says nothing certain about where the price goes.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Gamma Map

On 28 Sep 2026, RCL's call wall is the 270 strike and its put wall is the 250 strike.

Figure	Value
Call wall, most open call gamma	270
Put wall, most open put gamma	250
Net dollar gamma, calls minus puts	minus $2.37 million
Total dollar gamma, both sides	$32.17 million
Close	242.59

Dollar gamma is stated for a one percent move in the price.

Net is calls minus puts under the standard convention, not a record of who holds the contracts.

Net gamma changes sign at 5 strikes, so no single flip strike is named.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Volatility History

On 28 Sep 2026, RCL's at the money IV is 52.6 percent against 20 day realized volatility of 34.8 percent.

Figure	Value
At the money IV	52.6%
Realized volatility, 20 trading days	34.8%
Realized volatility, 60 trading days	32.9%
IV against its own weekly record	High, in the top fifth
Weekly readings on record	865, from 8 Jan 2010
Weeks the price moved more than the one week priced move	32.9% of 252 weeks

Realized volatility is worked out from the daily closes the desk holds, not from the option chain.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Volatility Weather

On 28 Sep 2026, RCL's at the money IV runs from 54.1 percent at 4 days to 46.3 percent at 172 days.

Days to expiry	At the money IV
4	54.1%
11	51.7%
18	51.5%
25	50.6%
39	52.1%
53	50.5%
81	47.9%
172	46.3%

Near expiries price more volatility than far ones, an inverted term structure.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Volatility Smile

On 28 Sep 2026, at the 32 day expiry, RCL's IV ten percent below the price sits 0.0 points above at the money IV.

Strike area	Implied volatility	Against at the money
10% below the price	52.6%	+0.0 points
At the money	52.6%	0.0 points
10% above the price	53.8%	+1.2 points

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Volatility Surface

On 28 Sep 2026, RCL's surface spans 10 expiries out to 172 days, with IV from 44.9 to 58.7 percent near the price.

Figure	Value
Expiries captured	10
Nearest expiry	2 Oct 2026, 4 days
Farthest expiry	19 Mar 2027, 172 days
Points within 10% of the price, 7 days out or more	85
Lowest IV among them	44.9%
Highest IV among them	58.7%

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Expiry Ladder

On 28 Sep 2026, RCL has 10 captured expiries, from 2 Oct 2026 to 19 Mar 2027.

Expiry	Days	At the money IV	Call open interest	Put open interest
2 Oct 2026	4	54.1%	4,074	1,402
9 Oct 2026	11	51.7%	938	1,068
16 Oct 2026	18	51.5%	4,732	3,519
23 Oct 2026	25	50.6%	724	354
30 Oct 2026	32	52.6%	998	598
6 Nov 2026	39	52.1%	23	23
20 Nov 2026	53	50.5%	7,750	2,439
18 Dec 2026	81	47.9%	3,844	19,470
15 Jan 2027	109	46.5%	12,213	9,211
19 Mar 2027	172	46.3%	2,551	5,537

Open interest is summed over the strikes captured near the price on each expiry.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Strike Table

On 28 Sep 2026, RCL's largest open interest sits at the 250 strike, with 11,159 contracts across the captured expiries.

Strike	Call open interest	Put open interest	Total
250	2,263	8,896	11,159
220	327	9,307	9,634
280	3,259	3,552	6,811
270	5,008	1,087	6,095
260	2,444	1,810	4,254
310	3,839	364	4,203

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Since Yesterday

From 25 Sep 2026 to 28 Sep 2026, RCL's at the money IV moved from 46.0 percent to 52.6 percent.

Figure	25 Sep	28 Sep	Change
At the money IV	46.0%	52.6%	+6.6 points
Open interest, strikes captured near the price	79,878	81,468	+1,590
Put/call ratio, open interest	1.17	1.15	-0.01

Open interest changes cannot identify buyers or sellers.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Changed Hands

On 28 Sep 2026, 24,550 RCL option contracts traded, 1.5 times its own recent average.

Figure	Value
Calls traded	7,252
Puts traded	17,298
Against its recent average	1.5 times
Busier than	17 of its last 20 trading days
Open interest, whole chain	91,444 contracts
Volume to open interest	0.27
Unusual volume flag	No

Traded volume and open interest are shown side by side and never combined. Open interest changes cannot identify buyers or sellers.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Positioning Replay

The replay holds 33 trading days of RCL's option positioning, from 11 Aug 2026 to 28 Sep 2026.

Date	Close	Net dollar gamma	Top call strike	Top put strike
11 Aug 2026	307.15	minus $10.06 million	330	280
21 Sep 2026	250.25	minus $9.96 million	270	250
28 Sep 2026	242.59	minus $2.37 million	270	250

Each frame restates one nightly capture. Net is calls minus puts, a convention, not who holds the contracts.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Read-out

On 25 Sep 2026 the desk's view of RCL was neutral, paper trading.

Figure	Value
Side	Neutral at 45 trading days, no signal
Level above the close	248.64, the swing high of 15 Sep 2026
Level below the close	222.22, the swing low of 23 Sep 2026
Strategy family	Iron condor (sell both sides, defined risk)
Price target	None. The desk has no price model.

The levels are prices the shares turned at on the chart, with the date of each.

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Rank by Timeframe

On 25 Sep 2026 RCL sat at the 56th percentile of the model's 45 trading day ranking, paper trading.

Timeframe	Percentile	Side
10 trading days	40 of 100	Neutral
20 trading days	29 of 100	Neutral
45 trading days	56 of 100	Neutral

100 is the top of the ranking. A name in the middle three fifths is neutral.

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Timeframe Agreement

On 25 Sep 2026 RCL's near timeframes were neutral and its long timeframe was neutral, paper trading.

Group	Timeframes	Side	On that side
Near	10 day, 20 day	Neutral	0 of 2
Long	45 day	Neutral	0 of 1

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Signal History

On 25 Sep 2026 RCL had carried no signal for at least 18 trading days, paper trading.

Trading day	Signal	45 day percentile
25 Sep 2026	None	56 of 100
24 Sep 2026	None	52 of 100
23 Sep 2026	None	68 of 100
22 Sep 2026	None	65 of 100
21 Sep 2026	None	34 of 100
18 Sep 2026	None	33 of 100
17 Sep 2026	None	44 of 100
16 Sep 2026	None	26 of 100

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Sector Split

On 25 Sep 2026, 27 of 106 Consumer Discretionary names were bullish and 33 were bearish, paper trading.

Sector	Names	Bullish	Bearish	Neutral
Consumer Discretionary	106	27	33	46

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Price Chart

RCL closed at 242.59 on 28 Sep 2026.

Figure	Value
Last close	242.59
Change over 5 trading days	-3.1%
Change over 21 trading days	-14.8%
Change over 63 trading days	-24.5%
Change over 252 trading days	-25.2%
52 week high	356.39
52 week low	222.22
20 day moving average	253.40
50 day moving average	283.47
200 day moving average	287.07
RSI, 14 days	34

Worked out from the desk's own daily bars, adjusted for share splits.

From the daily bars through 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Earnings Radar

RCL reports next on 27 Oct 2026, a date confirmed by the company.

Figure	Value
Next report	27 Oct 2026, before the open
Date	Confirmed by the company
Move after the report of 28 Jul 2026	+5.7%
Move after the report of 29 Apr 2026	+3.8%
Move after the report of 27 Jan 2026	+0.3%
Move after the report of 29 Apr 2025	+0.1%

Earnings calendar as of 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Company Events

RCL filed 1 current report in the 14 days to 28 Sep 2026, the latest on 23 Sep 2026.

Filed	Report	What it covers
23 Sep 2026	Current report	Other Events

Filings as of 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Short Volume

On 25 Sep 2026, 61.0 percent of RCL's reported volume at the covered venues was marked short.

Figure	Value
Short sale share, 25 Sep	61.0%
Five day average	49.7%
52 week median	64.5%

Short sale volume counts trades marked short at the covered venues, mostly off exchange. It is not the same as short interest.

Short volume as of 25 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Seasonality

In the 23 Septembers on record, RCL's average change was plus 1.6 percent, and it rose in 65.2 percent of them.

Month	Average change	Middle change	Share of years up	Years
September	+1.6%	+3.9%	65.2%	23
October	+3.3%	+4.3%	65.2%	23
November	+4.9%	+4.8%	73.9%	23

Each figure is a month end to month end change in past years. A past month says nothing certain about the next one.

Monthly history through 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Headlines

The desk's news feeds carried 6 headlines naming RCL in the 3 days to 28 Sep 2026.

Figure	Value
Headlines in the window	6
Latest	28 Sep 2026

The titles are in the Headlines window, with the time each was published.

Headlines as of 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Questions

What is RCL's IV rank?: RCL's IV rank is 83 of 100 on 28 Sep 2026.
What move are RCL options pricing?: On 28 Sep 2026, RCL options priced a move of 14.9 percent down and 15.5 percent up by 30 Oct 2026.
Where are RCL's call wall and put wall?: On 28 Sep 2026, RCL's call wall is the 270 strike and its put wall is the 250 strike.
What was the desk's latest view of RCL on the Free plan?: On 25 Sep 2026 the desk's view of RCL was neutral, paper trading.
When does RCL report earnings next?: RCL reports next on 27 Oct 2026, a date confirmed by the company.

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