Information Technology

Super Micro Computer Inc (SMCI) options and signal

Figures as of 28 Sep 2026

SMCI is Super Micro Computer Inc, an Information Technology name the model ranks every trading day. The options figures are from the close on 28 Sep 2026. The model's figures are from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind the latest, as the Free plan shows them. Every model figure is paper trading.

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At a glance

Figure	Value	Date
Trade Card	Bull put spread, 18 Dec	25 Sep
IV rank	71 of 100	28 Sep
At the money IV	71.7%	28 Sep
Priced move to 30 Oct	20.7% down, 22.1% up	28 Sep
Call wall and put wall	43.5 and 40	28 Sep
Signal and the desk's view	No signal, view bullish	25 Sep
Last close	41.78	28 Sep
Next report	3 Nov 2026	28 Sep

Trade Cards

On 25 Sep 2026 the Trade Card for SMCI was a bull put spread expiring 18 Dec 2026, paper trading.

Figure	Value
Signal	Neutral
Strategy	Bull put spread, credit
Legs	Sell the 37 put, Buy the 30 put
Expiry	18 Dec 2026, 84 days to expiry
Limit	A credit of at least $2.16
Probability of profit	69%, the option market's odds at expiry, from delta
Max loss	$484 per contract
Max profit	$216 per contract
Breakeven	34.84
IV rank at that expiry	81 of 100

Probability of profit is the option market's own odds from delta, not the model's.

Priced on the option chain at the close on 25 Sep 2026.

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Options Snapshot

SMCI's IV rank is 71 of 100 on 28 Sep 2026.

Figure	Value
IV rank	71 of 100
At the money IV	71.7%, near month, 32 days
Put/call ratio, open interest	0.61
Call open interest, strikes captured near the price	604,000 contracts
Put open interest, strikes captured near the price	368,000 contracts
Cost to trade at the money	Tight, 6.9% of the option's mid price

IV rank is where the at the money IV sits among SMCI's own weekly readings, 0 the lowest and 100 the highest.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Priced Range

On 28 Sep 2026, SMCI options priced a move of 20.7 percent down and 22.1 percent up by 30 Oct 2026.

Expiry	Days	Down	Up	Range
2 Oct 2026	4	7.4%	7.8%	38.70 to 45.02
9 Oct 2026	11	11.8%	12.4%	36.86 to 46.98
23 Oct 2026	25	18.4%	19.2%	34.11 to 49.81
30 Oct 2026	32	20.7%	22.1%	33.12 to 51.02
20 Nov 2026	53	29.7%	31.4%	29.38 to 54.88
18 Dec 2026	81	34.7%	37.6%	27.28 to 57.48
19 Feb 2027	144	46.0%	51.2%	22.58 to 63.18

The range is one standard deviation either side of the close of 41.78, as the option prices imply it.

A priced move restates option prices at the close and says nothing certain about where the price goes.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Gamma Map

On 28 Sep 2026, SMCI's call wall is the 43.5 strike and its put wall is the 40 strike.

Figure	Value
Call wall, most open call gamma	43.5
Put wall, most open put gamma	40
Net dollar gamma, calls minus puts	$23.66 million
Total dollar gamma, both sides	$55.29 million
Close	41.78

Dollar gamma is stated for a one percent move in the price.

Net is calls minus puts under the standard convention, not a record of who holds the contracts.

Net gamma changes sign at 4 strikes, so no single flip strike is named.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Volatility History

On 28 Sep 2026, SMCI's at the money IV is 71.7 percent against 20 day realized volatility of 68.0 percent.

Figure	Value
At the money IV	71.7%
Realized volatility, 20 trading days	68.0%
Realized volatility, 60 trading days	85.8%
IV against its own weekly record	In the middle
Weekly readings on record	712, from 29 Oct 2010
Weeks the price moved more than the one week priced move	35.7% of 252 weeks

Realized volatility is worked out from the daily closes the desk holds, not from the option chain.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Volatility Weather

On 28 Sep 2026, SMCI's at the money IV runs from 71.6 percent at 4 days to 77.6 percent at 144 days.

Days to expiry	At the money IV
4	71.6%
11	69.5%
18	69.2%
25	71.5%
39	81.0%
53	79.9%
81	77.9%
144	77.6%

Far expiries price more volatility than near ones, an upward sloping term structure.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Volatility Smile

On 28 Sep 2026, at the 32 day expiry, SMCI's IV ten percent below the price sits 0.8 points above at the money IV.

Strike area	Implied volatility	Against at the money
10% below the price	72.5%	+0.8 points
At the money	71.7%	0.0 points
10% above the price	72.9%	+1.1 points

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Volatility Surface

On 28 Sep 2026, SMCI's surface spans 10 expiries out to 144 days, with IV from 68.6 to 82.8 percent near the price.

Figure	Value
Expiries captured	10
Nearest expiry	2 Oct 2026, 4 days
Farthest expiry	19 Feb 2027, 144 days
Points within 10% of the price, 7 days out or more	86
Lowest IV among them	68.6%
Highest IV among them	82.8%

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Expiry Ladder

On 28 Sep 2026, SMCI has 10 captured expiries, from 2 Oct 2026 to 19 Feb 2027.

Expiry	Days	At the money IV	Call open interest	Put open interest
2 Oct 2026	4	71.6%	125,648	24,911
9 Oct 2026	11	69.5%	20,890	11,118
16 Oct 2026	18	69.2%	62,052	42,703
23 Oct 2026	25	71.5%	13,927	13,875
30 Oct 2026	32	71.7%	9,157	6,598
6 Nov 2026	39	81.0%	2,820	496
20 Nov 2026	53	79.9%	85,774	39,362
18 Dec 2026	81	77.9%	96,209	80,217
15 Jan 2027	109	75.5%	178,868	139,796
19 Feb 2027	144	77.6%	8,879	8,477

Open interest is summed over the strikes captured near the price on each expiry.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Strike Table

On 28 Sep 2026, SMCI's largest open interest sits at the 50 strike, with 80,925 contracts across the captured expiries.

Strike	Call open interest	Put open interest	Total
50	73,002	7,923	80,925
40	54,037	25,860	79,897
35	29,754	29,225	58,979
45	43,661	5,858	49,519
30	13,671	28,960	42,631
38	12,662	16,203	28,865

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Since Yesterday

From 25 Sep 2026 to 28 Sep 2026, SMCI's at the money IV moved from 71.3 percent to 71.7 percent.

Figure	25 Sep	28 Sep	Change
At the money IV	71.3%	71.7%	+0.4 points
Open interest, strikes captured near the price	923,003	971,777	+48,774
Put/call ratio, open interest	0.65	0.61	-0.04

Open interest changes cannot identify buyers or sellers.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Changed Hands

On 28 Sep 2026, 125,400 SMCI option contracts traded, 0.6 times its own recent average.

Figure	Value
Calls traded	84,460
Puts traded	40,940
Against its recent average	0.6 times
Busier than	2 of its last 20 trading days
Open interest, whole chain	1.6 million contracts
Volume to open interest	0.08
Unusual volume flag	Yes, 6 contracts traded well above open interest
Largest flagged contract	The 55 call expiring 2 Oct, 3,305 traded against 966 open

Traded volume and open interest are shown side by side and never combined. Open interest changes cannot identify buyers or sellers.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Positioning Replay

The replay holds 33 trading days of SMCI's option positioning, from 11 Aug 2026 to 28 Sep 2026.

Date	Close	Net dollar gamma	Top call strike	Top put strike
11 Aug 2026	31.60	$15.42 million	31	30
21 Sep 2026	41.20	$26 million	42	40
28 Sep 2026	41.78	$23.66 million	43.5	40

Each frame restates one nightly capture. Net is calls minus puts, a convention, not who holds the contracts.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Read-out

On 25 Sep 2026 the desk's view of SMCI was bullish, paper trading.

Figure	Value
Side	Bullish at 45 trading days, no signal
Level above the close	43.76, the swing high of 25 Sep 2026
Level below the close	41.53, the swing low of 8 Sep 2026, a close past it runs against the view
The chart	Sits with the view
Strategy family	Bull put spread (sell a put spread below the price)
Price target	None. The desk has no price model.

The levels are prices the shares turned at on the chart, with the date of each.

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Rank by Timeframe

On 25 Sep 2026 SMCI sat at the 88th percentile of the model's 45 trading day ranking, paper trading.

Timeframe	Percentile	Side
10 trading days	72 of 100	Neutral
20 trading days	84 of 100	Bullish
45 trading days	88 of 100	Bullish

100 is the top of the ranking. A name in the middle three fifths is neutral.

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Timeframe Agreement

On 25 Sep 2026, 2 of 3 timeframes put SMCI on the bullish side, paper trading.

Group	Timeframes	Side	On that side
Near	10 day, 20 day	Bullish	1 of 2
Long	45 day	Bullish	1 of 1

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Signal History

On 25 Sep 2026 SMCI had carried no signal for 10 trading days, paper trading.

Trading day	Signal	45 day percentile
25 Sep 2026	None	88 of 100
24 Sep 2026	None	50 of 100
23 Sep 2026	None	11 of 100
22 Sep 2026	None	10 of 100
21 Sep 2026	None	16 of 100
18 Sep 2026	None	14 of 100
17 Sep 2026	None	22 of 100
16 Sep 2026	None	27 of 100

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Sector Split

On 25 Sep 2026, 80 of 187 Information Technology names were bullish and 61 were bearish, paper trading.

Sector	Names	Bullish	Bearish	Neutral
Information Technology	187	80	61	46

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Price Chart

SMCI closed at 41.78 on 28 Sep 2026.

Figure	Value
Last close	41.78
Change over 5 trading days	+1.4%
Change over 21 trading days	+8.6%
Change over 63 trading days	+48.4%
Change over 252 trading days	-9.6%
52 week high	58.78
52 week low	19.48
20 day moving average	39.23
50 day moving average	35.38
200 day moving average	31.83
RSI, 14 days	59

Worked out from the desk's own daily bars, adjusted for share splits.

From the daily bars through 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Earnings Radar

SMCI reports next on 3 Nov 2026, a date worked out from past quarters.

Figure	Value
Next report	3 Nov 2026, after the close
Date	Worked out from past quarters
Move after the report of 11 Aug 2026	+19.0%
Move after the report of 12 May 2026	-2.4%
Move after the report of 11 Feb 2026	-5.0%
Move after the report of 11 Nov 2025	-2.3%

Earnings calendar as of 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Short Volume

On 25 Sep 2026, 47.2 percent of SMCI's reported volume at the covered venues was marked short.

Figure	Value
Short sale share, 25 Sep	47.2%
Five day average	46.5%
52 week median	45.7%
Short interest, share of shares outstanding	14.5% at the 15 Sep 2026 settlement
Days to cover	2.7

Short sale volume counts trades marked short at the covered venues, mostly off exchange. It is not the same as short interest.

Short volume as of 25 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Seasonality

In the 19 Septembers on record, SMCI's average change was plus 1.4 percent, and it rose in 52.6 percent of them.

Month	Average change	Middle change	Share of years up	Years
September	+1.4%	+0.1%	52.6%	19
October	-4.2%	+1.4%	52.6%	19
November	+4.8%	+12.1%	68.4%	19

Each figure is a month end to month end change in past years. A past month says nothing certain about the next one.

Monthly history through 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Headlines

The desk's news feeds carried 7 headlines naming SMCI in the 3 days to 28 Sep 2026.

Figure	Value
Headlines in the window	7
Latest	28 Sep 2026

The titles are in the Headlines window, with the time each was published.

Headlines as of 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Questions

What is SMCI's IV rank?: SMCI's IV rank is 71 of 100 on 28 Sep 2026.
What move are SMCI options pricing?: On 28 Sep 2026, SMCI options priced a move of 20.7 percent down and 22.1 percent up by 30 Oct 2026.
Where are SMCI's call wall and put wall?: On 28 Sep 2026, SMCI's call wall is the 43.5 strike and its put wall is the 40 strike.
What was the latest Trade Card for SMCI on the Free plan?: On 25 Sep 2026 the Trade Card for SMCI was a bull put spread expiring 18 Dec 2026, paper trading.
When does SMCI report earnings next?: SMCI reports next on 3 Nov 2026, a date worked out from past quarters.

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