Consumer Discretionary

American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. (AEO) options and signal

Figures as of 28 Sep 2026

AEO is American Eagle Outfitters, Inc., a Consumer Discretionary name the model ranks every trading day. The options figures are from the close on 28 Sep 2026. The model's figures are from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind the latest, as the Free plan shows them. Every model figure is paper trading.

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At a glance

FigureValueDate
IV rank80 of 10028 Sep
At the money IV52.8%28 Sep
Priced move to 30 Oct13.8% down, 15.5% up28 Sep
Call wall and put wallBoth 1528 Sep
Signal and the desk's viewNo signal, view bearish25 Sep
Last close17.3128 Sep
Next report1 Dec 202628 Sep

Options Snapshot

AEO's IV rank is 80 of 100 on 28 Sep 2026.

FigureValue
IV rank80 of 100
At the money IV52.8%, near month, 32 days
Put/call ratio, open interest0.65
Call open interest, strikes captured near the price59,200 contracts
Put open interest, strikes captured near the price38,400 contracts
Cost to trade at the moneyWide, 55.9% of the option's mid price

IV rank is where the at the money IV sits among AEO's own weekly readings, 0 the lowest and 100 the highest.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Priced Range

On 28 Sep 2026, AEO options priced a move of 13.8 percent down and 15.5 percent up by 30 Oct 2026.

ExpiryDaysDownUpRange
2 Oct 202645.7%5.8%16.33 to 18.31
9 Oct 20261111.0%8.3%15.41 to 18.75
16 Oct 20261811.4%10.5%15.34 to 19.12
30 Oct 20263213.8%15.5%14.92 to 20.00
6 Nov 20263916.3%15.7%14.48 to 20.03
20 Nov 20265318.1%19.6%14.17 to 20.70
19 Feb 202714432.3%32.8%11.72 to 22.99

The range is one standard deviation either side of the close of 17.31, as the option prices imply it.

A priced move restates option prices at the close and says nothing certain about where the price goes.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Gamma Map

On 28 Sep 2026, AEO's call wall and put wall are both at the 15 strike.

FigureValue
Call wall, most open call gamma15
Put wall, most open put gamma15
Flip strike, where net gamma changes sign14.51
Net dollar gamma, calls minus puts$895,532
Total dollar gamma, both sides$2.45 million
Close17.31

Dollar gamma is stated for a one percent move in the price.

Net is calls minus puts under the standard convention, not a record of who holds the contracts.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Volatility History

On 28 Sep 2026, AEO's at the money IV is 52.8 percent against 20 day realized volatility of 65.5 percent.

FigureValue
At the money IV52.8%
Realized volatility, 20 trading days65.5%
Realized volatility, 60 trading days54.1%
IV against its own weekly recordIn the middle
Weekly readings on record847, from 8 Jan 2010
Weeks the price moved more than the one week priced move24.6% of 236 weeks

Realized volatility is worked out from the daily closes the desk holds, not from the option chain.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Volatility Weather

On 28 Sep 2026, AEO's at the money IV runs from 56.6 percent at 4 days to 51.9 percent at 144 days.

Days to expiryAt the money IV
456.6%
1151.3%
1849.2%
2552.1%
3252.8%
3950.0%
5350.7%
14451.9%

Near expiries price more volatility than far ones, an inverted term structure.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Volatility Smile

On 28 Sep 2026, at the 32 day expiry, AEO's IV ten percent below the price sits 7.3 points above at the money IV.

Strike areaImplied volatilityAgainst at the money
10% below the price60.2%+7.3 points
At the money52.8%0.0 points
10% above the price56.2%+3.4 points

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Volatility Surface

On 28 Sep 2026, AEO's surface spans 9 expiries out to 144 days, with IV from 46.8 to 65.3 percent near the price.

FigureValue
Expiries captured9
Nearest expiry2 Oct 2026, 4 days
Farthest expiry19 Feb 2027, 144 days
Points within 10% of the price, 7 days out or more44
Lowest IV among them46.8%
Highest IV among them65.3%

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Expiry Ladder

On 28 Sep 2026, AEO has 9 captured expiries, from 2 Oct 2026 to 19 Feb 2027.

ExpiryDaysAt the money IVCall open interestPut open interest
2 Oct 2026456.6%2,9771,791
9 Oct 20261151.3%1,371543
16 Oct 20261849.2%8,1374,934
23 Oct 20262552.1%1,007541
30 Oct 20263252.8%334414
6 Nov 20263950.0%263
20 Nov 20265350.7%26,6369,159
15 Jan 202710952.5%15,76416,497
19 Feb 202714451.9%2,9614,564

Open interest is summed over the strikes captured near the price on each expiry.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Strike Table

On 28 Sep 2026, AEO's largest open interest sits at the 15 strike, with 32,819 contracts across the captured expiries.

StrikeCall open interestPut open interestTotal
1524,4448,37532,819
175,8314,72410,555
146876,9057,592
163,7983,2327,030
203,9071,4795,386
184,4266435,069

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Since Yesterday

From 25 Sep 2026 to 28 Sep 2026, AEO's at the money IV moved from 51.2 percent to 52.8 percent.

Figure25 Sep28 SepChange
At the money IV51.2%52.8%+1.7 points
Open interest, strikes captured near the price97,52097,659+139
Put/call ratio, open interest0.680.65-0.03

Open interest changes cannot identify buyers or sellers.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Changed Hands

On 28 Sep 2026, 11,608 AEO option contracts traded, 1.3 times its own recent average.

FigureValue
Calls traded7,023
Puts traded4,585
Against its recent average1.3 times
Open interest, whole chain110,157 contracts
Volume to open interest0.11
Unusual volume flagYes, 2 contracts traded well above open interest
Largest flagged contractThe 18 call expiring 2 Oct, 817 traded against 225 open

Traded volume and open interest are shown side by side and never combined. Open interest changes cannot identify buyers or sellers.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Positioning Replay

The replay holds 5 trading days of AEO's option positioning, from 22 Sep 2026 to 28 Sep 2026.

DateCloseNet dollar gammaTop call strikeTop put strike
22 Sep 202615.92$775,2531515
28 Sep 202617.31$895,5321515

Each frame restates one nightly capture. Net is calls minus puts, a convention, not who holds the contracts.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Read-out

On 25 Sep 2026 the desk's view of AEO was bearish, paper trading.

FigureValue
SideBearish at 45 trading days, no signal
Level above the close17.50, the swing high of 8 Sep 2026, a close past it runs against the view
Level below the close15.67, the swing low of 14 Sep 2026
The chartSits against the view
Strategy familyBear call spread (sell a call spread above the price)
Price targetNone. The desk has no price model.

The levels are prices the shares turned at on the chart, with the date of each.

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Rank by Timeframe

On 25 Sep 2026 AEO sat at the 15th percentile of the model's 45 trading day ranking, paper trading.

TimeframePercentileSide
10 trading days1 of 100Bearish
20 trading days4 of 100Bearish
45 trading days15 of 100Bearish

100 is the top of the ranking. A name in the middle three fifths is neutral.

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Timeframe Agreement

On 25 Sep 2026, 3 of 3 timeframes put AEO on the bearish side, paper trading.

GroupTimeframesSideOn that side
Near10 day, 20 dayBearish2 of 2
Long45 dayBearish1 of 1

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Signal History

On 25 Sep 2026 AEO had carried no signal for at least 5 trading days, paper trading.

Trading daySignal45 day percentile
25 Sep 2026None15 of 100
24 Sep 2026None41 of 100
23 Sep 2026None62 of 100
22 Sep 2026None55 of 100
21 Sep 2026None75 of 100

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Sector Split

On 25 Sep 2026, 27 of 106 Consumer Discretionary names were bullish and 33 were bearish, paper trading.

SectorNamesBullishBearishNeutral
Consumer Discretionary106273346

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Price Chart

AEO closed at 17.31 on 28 Sep 2026.

FigureValue
Last close17.31
Change over 5 trading days+12.0%
Change over 21 trading days+3.7%
Change over 63 trading days+1.4%
Change over 252 trading days-2.8%
52 week high28.46
52 week low14.06
20 day moving average16.01
50 day moving average16.70
200 day moving average19.39
RSI, 14 days61

Worked out from the desk's own daily bars, adjusted for share splits.

From the daily bars through 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Earnings Radar

AEO reports next on 1 Dec 2026, a date worked out from past quarters.

FigureValue
Next report1 Dec 2026
DateWorked out from past quarters

Earnings calendar as of 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Seasonality

In the 32 Septembers on record, AEO's average change was plus 3.4 percent, and it rose in 56.2 percent of them.

MonthAverage changeMiddle changeShare of years upYears
September+3.4%+2.5%56.2%32
October+0.1%-0.5%46.9%32
November+7.9%+4.0%65.6%32

Each figure is a month end to month end change in past years. A past month says nothing certain about the next one.

Monthly history through 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Headlines

The desk's news feeds carried 4 headlines naming AEO in the 3 days to 28 Sep 2026.

FigureValue
Headlines in the window4
Latest28 Sep 2026

The titles are in the Headlines window, with the time each was published.

Headlines as of 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Questions

What is AEO's IV rank?
AEO's IV rank is 80 of 100 on 28 Sep 2026.
What move are AEO options pricing?
On 28 Sep 2026, AEO options priced a move of 13.8 percent down and 15.5 percent up by 30 Oct 2026.
Where are AEO's call wall and put wall?
On 28 Sep 2026, AEO's call wall and put wall are both at the 15 strike.
What was the desk's latest view of AEO on the Free plan?
On 25 Sep 2026 the desk's view of AEO was bearish, paper trading.
When does AEO report earnings next?
AEO reports next on 1 Dec 2026, a date worked out from past quarters.

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