Consumer Discretionary

Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN) options and signal

Figures as of 28 Sep 2026

CHDN is Churchill Downs Incorporated, a Consumer Discretionary name the model ranks every trading day. The options figures are from the close on 28 Sep 2026. The model's figures are from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind the latest, as the Free plan shows them. Every model figure is paper trading.

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At a glance

Figure	Value	Date
IV rank	91 of 100	28 Sep
At the money IV	55.4%	28 Sep
Priced move to 16 Oct	13.5% down, 12.3% up	28 Sep
Call wall and put wall	85 and 70	28 Sep
Signal and the desk's view	No signal, view bullish	25 Sep
Last close	75.72	28 Sep
Next report	28 Oct 2026	28 Sep

Options Snapshot

CHDN's IV rank is 91 of 100 on 28 Sep 2026.

Figure	Value
IV rank	91 of 100
At the money IV	55.4%, near month, 18 days
Put/call ratio, open interest	7.94
Call open interest, strikes captured near the price	1,890 contracts
Put open interest, strikes captured near the price	15,000 contracts
Cost to trade at the money	Fair, 20.7% of the option's mid price

IV rank is where the at the money IV sits among CHDN's own weekly readings, 0 the lowest and 100 the highest.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Priced Range

On 28 Sep 2026, CHDN options priced a move of 13.5 percent down and 12.3 percent up by 16 Oct 2026.

Expiry	Days	Down	Up	Range
16 Oct 2026	18	13.5%	12.3%	65.52 to 85.03
20 Nov 2026	53	21.7%	20.9%	59.32 to 91.52
18 Dec 2026	81	20.3%	21.8%	60.32 to 92.22
19 Mar 2027	172	30.2%	32.2%	52.82 to 100.12

The range is one standard deviation either side of the close of 75.72, as the option prices imply it.

A priced move restates option prices at the close and says nothing certain about where the price goes.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Gamma Map

On 28 Sep 2026, CHDN's call wall is the 85 strike and its put wall is the 70 strike.

Figure	Value
Call wall, most open call gamma	85
Put wall, most open put gamma	70
Net dollar gamma, calls minus puts	minus $2.14 million
Total dollar gamma, both sides	$2.43 million
Close	75.72

Dollar gamma is stated for a one percent move in the price.

Net is calls minus puts under the standard convention, not a record of who holds the contracts.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Volatility History

On 28 Sep 2026, CHDN's at the money IV is 55.4 percent against 20 day realized volatility of 33.9 percent.

Figure	Value
At the money IV	55.4%
Realized volatility, 20 trading days	33.9%
Realized volatility, 60 trading days	34.5%
IV against its own weekly record	High, in the top fifth
Weekly readings on record	789, from 28 Jan 2011
Weeks the price moved more than the one week priced move	25.8% of 236 weeks

Realized volatility is worked out from the daily closes the desk holds, not from the option chain.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Volatility Weather

On 28 Sep 2026, CHDN's at the money IV runs from 55.4 percent at 18 days to 43.9 percent at 172 days.

Days to expiry	At the money IV
18	55.4%
53	52.0%
81	46.2%
172	43.9%

Near expiries price more volatility than far ones, an inverted term structure.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Volatility Smile

On 28 Sep 2026, at the 53 day expiry, CHDN's IV ten percent below the price sits 5.0 points above at the money IV.

Strike area	Implied volatility	Against at the money
10% below the price	57.0%	+5.0 points
At the money	52.0%	0.0 points
10% above the price	50.3%	-1.7 points

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Volatility Surface

On 28 Sep 2026, CHDN's surface spans 4 expiries out to 172 days, with IV from 43.4 to 110.1 percent near the price.

Figure	Value
Expiries captured	4
Nearest expiry	16 Oct 2026, 18 days
Farthest expiry	19 Mar 2027, 172 days
Points within 10% of the price, 7 days out or more	12
Lowest IV among them	43.4%
Highest IV among them	110.1%

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Expiry Ladder

On 28 Sep 2026, CHDN has 4 captured expiries, from 16 Oct 2026 to 19 Mar 2027.

Expiry	Days	At the money IV	Call open interest	Put open interest
16 Oct 2026	18	55.4%	425	6,790
20 Nov 2026	53	52.0%	3	7,568
18 Dec 2026	81	46.2%	1,343	478
19 Mar 2027	172	43.9%	119	214

Open interest is summed over the strikes captured near the price on each expiry.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Strike Table

On 28 Sep 2026, CHDN's largest open interest sits at the 70 strike, with 13,605 contracts across the captured expiries.

Strike	Call open interest	Put open interest	Total
70	12	13,593	13,605
80	62	775	837
85	215	439	654
120	608	0	608
95	287	0	287
100	241	0	241

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Since Yesterday

From 25 Sep 2026 to 28 Sep 2026, CHDN's at the money IV moved from 43.9 percent to 55.4 percent.

Figure	25 Sep	28 Sep	Change
At the money IV	43.9%	55.4%	+11.5 points
Open interest, strikes captured near the price	16,875	16,940	+65
Put/call ratio, open interest	8.02	7.96	-0.06

Open interest changes cannot identify buyers or sellers.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Changed Hands

On 28 Sep 2026, 837 CHDN option contracts traded, 1.4 times its own recent average.

Figure	Value
Calls traded	437
Puts traded	400
Against its recent average	1.4 times
Busier than	4 of its last 5 trading days
Open interest, whole chain	17,007 contracts
Volume to open interest	0.05
Unusual volume flag	No

Traded volume and open interest are shown side by side and never combined. Open interest changes cannot identify buyers or sellers.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Positioning Replay

The replay holds 6 trading days of CHDN's option positioning, from 4 Sep 2026 to 28 Sep 2026.

Date	Close	Net dollar gamma	Top call strike	Top put strike
4 Sep 2026	87.07	minus $4 million	95	75
28 Sep 2026	75.72	minus $2.14 million	85	70

Each frame restates one nightly capture. Net is calls minus puts, a convention, not who holds the contracts.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Read-out

On 25 Sep 2026 the desk's view of CHDN was bullish, paper trading.

Figure	Value
Side	Bullish at 45 trading days, no signal
Level above the close	79.50, the swing high of 16 Sep 2026
Level below the close	74.95, the swing low of 28 Sep 2026, a close past it runs against the view
The chart	Sits against the view
Strategy family	Cash-secured put (sell a put below the price)
Price target	None. The desk has no price model.

The levels are prices the shares turned at on the chart, with the date of each.

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Rank by Timeframe

On 25 Sep 2026 CHDN sat at the 80th percentile of the model's 45 trading day ranking, paper trading.

Timeframe	Percentile	Side
10 trading days	82 of 100	Bullish
20 trading days	71 of 100	Neutral
45 trading days	80 of 100	Neutral

100 is the top of the ranking. A name in the middle three fifths is neutral.

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Timeframe Agreement

On 25 Sep 2026, 1 of 3 timeframes put CHDN on the bullish side, paper trading.

Group	Timeframes	Side	On that side
Near	10 day, 20 day	Bullish	1 of 2
Long	45 day	Neutral	0 of 1

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

Open Timeframe Agreement in RingMaster The Timeframe Agreement guide

Signal History

On 25 Sep 2026 CHDN had carried no signal for at least 5 trading days, paper trading.

Trading day	Signal	45 day percentile
25 Sep 2026	None	80 of 100
24 Sep 2026	None	62 of 100
23 Sep 2026	None	62 of 100
22 Sep 2026	None	67 of 100
21 Sep 2026	None	69 of 100
3 Sep 2026	None	67 of 100

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Sector Split

On 25 Sep 2026, 27 of 106 Consumer Discretionary names were bullish and 33 were bearish, paper trading.

Sector	Names	Bullish	Bearish	Neutral
Consumer Discretionary	106	27	33	46

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Price Chart

CHDN closed at 75.72 on 28 Sep 2026.

Figure	Value
Last close	75.72
Change over 5 trading days	-7.6%
Change over 21 trading days	-12.5%
Change over 63 trading days	-16.7%
Change over 252 trading days	-21.3%
52 week high	118.35
52 week low	74.95
20 day moving average	83.25
50 day moving average	85.82
200 day moving average	92.04
RSI, 14 days	31

Worked out from the desk's own daily bars, adjusted for share splits.

From the daily bars through 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Earnings Radar

CHDN reports next on 28 Oct 2026, a date confirmed by the company.

Figure	Value
Next report	28 Oct 2026, after the close
Date	Confirmed by the company
Move after the report of 29 Jul 2026	-6.6%
Move after the report of 22 Apr 2026	+10.1%
Move after the report of 24 Jan 2026	-1.0%
Move after the report of 24 Oct 2025	+2.1%

Earnings calendar as of 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Company Events

CHDN filed 1 current report in the 14 days to 28 Sep 2026, the latest on 28 Sep 2026.

Filed	Report	What it covers
28 Sep 2026	Current report	Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement; Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant; Regulation FD Disclosure

Filings as of 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Seasonality

In the 33 Septembers on record, CHDN's average change was plus 0.9 percent, and it rose in 54.5 percent of them.

Month	Average change	Middle change	Share of years up	Years
September	+0.9%	+0.2%	54.5%	33
October	+0.7%	+1.4%	57.6%	33
November	+3.1%	+1.1%	63.6%	33

Each figure is a month end to month end change in past years. A past month says nothing certain about the next one.

Monthly history through 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Headlines

The desk's news feeds carried 1 headline naming CHDN in the 3 days to 28 Sep 2026.

Figure	Value
Headlines in the window	1
Latest	28 Sep 2026

The titles are in the Headlines window, with the time each was published.

Headlines as of 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Questions

What is CHDN's IV rank?: CHDN's IV rank is 91 of 100 on 28 Sep 2026.
What move are CHDN options pricing?: On 28 Sep 2026, CHDN options priced a move of 13.5 percent down and 12.3 percent up by 16 Oct 2026.
Where are CHDN's call wall and put wall?: On 28 Sep 2026, CHDN's call wall is the 85 strike and its put wall is the 70 strike.
What was the desk's latest view of CHDN on the Free plan?: On 25 Sep 2026 the desk's view of CHDN was bullish, paper trading.
When does CHDN report earnings next?: CHDN reports next on 28 Oct 2026, a date confirmed by the company.

More Consumer Discretionary names

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