Consumer Discretionary

MercadoLibre, Inc. (MELI) options and signal

Figures as of 28 Sep 2026

MELI is MercadoLibre, Inc., a Consumer Discretionary name the model ranks every trading day. The options figures are from the close on 28 Sep 2026. The model's figures are from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind the latest, as the Free plan shows them. Every model figure is paper trading.

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At a glance

Figure	Value	Date
Trade Card	Bear put spread, 18 Dec	25 Sep
IV rank	53 of 100	28 Sep
At the money IV	43.4%	28 Sep
Priced move to 30 Oct	12.8% down, 12.7% up	28 Sep
Call wall and put wall	1,800 and 1,700	28 Sep
Signal and the desk's view	Bearish signal, view bearish	25 Sep
Last close	1,712.41	28 Sep
Next report	4 Nov 2026	28 Sep

Trade Cards

On 25 Sep 2026 the Trade Card for MELI was a bear put spread expiring 18 Dec 2026, paper trading.

Figure	Value
Signal	Bearish, over 45 trading days
Strategy	Bear put spread, debit
Legs	Buy the 1,750 put, Sell the 1,500 put
Expiry	18 Dec 2026, 84 days to expiry
Limit	A debit of at most $89.35
Probability of profit	40%, the option market's odds at expiry, from delta
Max loss	$8,935 per contract
Max profit	$16,065 per contract
Breakeven	1,660.65
IV rank at that expiry	50 of 100

Probability of profit is the option market's own odds from delta, not the model's.

Priced on the option chain at the close on 25 Sep 2026.

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Options Snapshot

MELI's IV rank is 53 of 100 on 28 Sep 2026.

Figure	Value
IV rank	53 of 100
At the money IV	43.4%, near month, 32 days
Put/call ratio, open interest	1.32
Call open interest, strikes captured near the price	12,100 contracts
Put open interest, strikes captured near the price	16,000 contracts
Cost to trade at the money	Fair, 32.1% of the option's mid price

IV rank is where the at the money IV sits among MELI's own weekly readings, 0 the lowest and 100 the highest.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Priced Range

On 28 Sep 2026, MELI options priced a move of 12.8 percent down and 12.7 percent up by 30 Oct 2026.

Expiry	Days	Down	Up	Range
2 Oct 2026	4	4.1%	5.7%	1,642.21 to 1,809.21
9 Oct 2026	11	8.1%	8.1%	1,573.41 to 1,850.41
23 Oct 2026	25	10.9%	10.9%	1,526.41 to 1,898.41
30 Oct 2026	32	12.8%	12.7%	1,492.41 to 1,929.41
20 Nov 2026	53	18.3%	19.2%	1,399.41 to 2,041.41
18 Dec 2026	81	20.7%	22.2%	1,357.41 to 2,092.41
19 Mar 2027	172	28.3%	32.8%	1,228.41 to 2,273.41

The range is one standard deviation either side of the close of 1,712.41, as the option prices imply it.

A priced move restates option prices at the close and says nothing certain about where the price goes.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Gamma Map

On 28 Sep 2026, MELI's call wall is the 1,800 strike and its put wall is the 1,700 strike.

Figure	Value
Call wall, most open call gamma	1,800
Put wall, most open put gamma	1,700
Net dollar gamma, calls minus puts	minus $25.38 million
Total dollar gamma, both sides	$131.75 million
Close	1,712.41

Dollar gamma is stated for a one percent move in the price.

Net is calls minus puts under the standard convention, not a record of who holds the contracts.

Net gamma changes sign at 6 strikes, so no single flip strike is named.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Volatility History

On 28 Sep 2026, MELI's at the money IV is 43.4 percent against 20 day realized volatility of 27.0 percent.

Figure	Value
At the money IV	43.4%
Realized volatility, 20 trading days	27.0%
Realized volatility, 60 trading days	34.4%
IV against its own weekly record	In the middle
Weekly readings on record	849, from 8 Jan 2010
Weeks the price moved more than the one week priced move	34.7% of 236 weeks

Realized volatility is worked out from the daily closes the desk holds, not from the option chain.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Volatility Weather

On 28 Sep 2026, MELI's at the money IV runs from 43.1 percent at 4 days to 44.0 percent at 172 days.

Days to expiry	At the money IV
4	43.1%
11	43.0%
18	40.8%
25	41.4%
39	46.8%
53	49.0%
81	45.7%
172	44.0%

Near and far expiries price about the same volatility, a flat term structure.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Volatility Smile

On 28 Sep 2026, at the 32 day expiry, MELI's IV ten percent below the price sits 3.6 points below at the money IV.

Strike area	Implied volatility	Against at the money
10% below the price	39.8%	-3.6 points
At the money	43.4%	0.0 points
10% above the price	42.4%	-1.1 points

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Volatility Surface

On 28 Sep 2026, MELI's surface spans 10 expiries out to 172 days, with IV from 29.9 to 74.4 percent near the price.

Figure	Value
Expiries captured	10
Nearest expiry	2 Oct 2026, 4 days
Farthest expiry	19 Mar 2027, 172 days
Points within 10% of the price, 7 days out or more	267
Lowest IV among them	29.9%
Highest IV among them	74.4%

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Expiry Ladder

On 28 Sep 2026, MELI has 10 captured expiries, from 2 Oct 2026 to 19 Mar 2027.

Expiry	Days	At the money IV	Call open interest	Put open interest
2 Oct 2026	4	43.1%	1,356	1,958
9 Oct 2026	11	43.0%	559	704
16 Oct 2026	18	40.8%	2,016	2,845
23 Oct 2026	25	41.4%	645	839
30 Oct 2026	32	43.4%	257	526
6 Nov 2026	39	46.8%	268	109
20 Nov 2026	53	49.0%	1,178	1,021
18 Dec 2026	81	45.7%	2,248	4,027
15 Jan 2027	109	42.3%	2,843	3,104
19 Mar 2027	172	44.0%	701	890

Open interest is summed over the strikes captured near the price on each expiry.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Strike Table

On 28 Sep 2026, MELI's largest open interest sits at the 1,700 strike, with 1,932 contracts across the captured expiries.

Strike	Call open interest	Put open interest	Total
1,700	346	1,586	1,932
1,600	171	1,552	1,723
1,500	488	1,085	1,573
1,800	623	625	1,248
1,840	809	231	1,040
2,000	791	233	1,024

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Since Yesterday

From 25 Sep 2026 to 28 Sep 2026, MELI's at the money IV moved from 38.8 percent to 43.4 percent.

Figure	25 Sep	28 Sep	Change
At the money IV	38.8%	43.4%	+4.6 points
Open interest, strikes captured near the price	27,212	28,094	+882
Put/call ratio, open interest	1.16	1.33	+0.16

Open interest changes cannot identify buyers or sellers.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Changed Hands

On 28 Sep 2026, 16,007 MELI option contracts traded, 1.0 times its own recent average.

Figure	Value
Calls traded	9,534
Puts traded	6,473
Against its recent average	1.0 times
Busier than	16 of its last 20 trading days
Open interest, whole chain	55,320 contracts
Volume to open interest	0.29
Unusual volume flag	Yes, 1 contract traded well above open interest
Largest flagged contract	The 1,740 call expiring 2 Oct, 250 traded against 106 open

Traded volume and open interest are shown side by side and never combined. Open interest changes cannot identify buyers or sellers.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Positioning Replay

The replay holds 33 trading days of MELI's option positioning, from 11 Aug 2026 to 28 Sep 2026.

Date	Close	Net dollar gamma	Top call strike	Top put strike
11 Aug 2026	1,940.00	$30.79 million	2,000	1,800
21 Sep 2026	1,820.47	$8.64 million	1,880	1,800
28 Sep 2026	1,712.41	minus $25.38 million	1,800	1,700

Each frame restates one nightly capture. Net is calls minus puts, a convention, not who holds the contracts.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Read-out

On 25 Sep 2026 the desk's view of MELI was bearish, paper trading.

Figure	Value
Side	Bearish at 45 trading days, signal on
Level above the close	1,785.22, the swing high of 18 Sep 2026, a close past it runs against the view
Level below the close	1,657.01, the swing low of 30 Jun 2026
The chart	Sits with the view
Strategy family	Bear put spread (buy a put spread)
Price target	None. The desk has no price model.

The levels are prices the shares turned at on the chart, with the date of each.

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Rank by Timeframe

On 25 Sep 2026 MELI sat at the 4th percentile of the model's 45 trading day ranking, paper trading.

Timeframe	Percentile	Side
10 trading days	14 of 100	Bearish
20 trading days	5 of 100	Bearish
45 trading days	4 of 100	Bearish

100 is the top of the ranking. A name in the middle three fifths is neutral.

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Timeframe Agreement

On 25 Sep 2026, 3 of 3 timeframes put MELI on the bearish side, paper trading.

Group	Timeframes	Side	On that side
Near	10 day, 20 day	Bearish	2 of 2
Long	45 day	Bearish	1 of 1

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Signal History

On 25 Sep 2026 MELI's bearish signal began that trading day, paper trading.

Trading day	Signal	45 day percentile
25 Sep 2026	Bearish	4 of 100
24 Sep 2026	None	9 of 100
23 Sep 2026	None	12 of 100
22 Sep 2026	None	8 of 100
21 Sep 2026	None	33 of 100
18 Sep 2026	None	31 of 100
17 Sep 2026	None	48 of 100
16 Sep 2026	None	7 of 100

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Sector Split

On 25 Sep 2026, 27 of 106 Consumer Discretionary names were bullish and 33 were bearish, paper trading.

Sector	Names	Bullish	Bearish	Neutral
Consumer Discretionary	106	27	33	46

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Price Chart

MELI closed at 1,712.41 on 28 Sep 2026.

Figure	Value
Last close	1,712.41
Change over 5 trading days	-5.9%
Change over 21 trading days	-11.3%
Change over 63 trading days	+1.7%
Change over 252 trading days	-31.3%
52 week high	2,548.50
52 week low	1,495.00
20 day moving average	1,866.44
50 day moving average	1,868.62
200 day moving average	1,843.30
RSI, 14 days	32

Worked out from the desk's own daily bars, adjusted for share splits.

From the daily bars through 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Earnings Radar

MELI reports next on 4 Nov 2026, a date confirmed by the company.

Figure	Value
Next report	4 Nov 2026, after the close
Date	Confirmed by the company
Move after the report of 5 Aug 2026	-4.8%
Move after the report of 30 Apr 2026	+3.2%
Move after the report of 28 Jan 2026	-2.2%
Move after the report of 7 May 2025	+6.5%

Earnings calendar as of 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Company Events

MELI filed 1 current report in the 14 days to 28 Sep 2026, the latest on 14 Sep 2026.

Filed	Report	What it covers
14 Sep 2026	Current report	Other Events

Filings as of 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Seasonality

In the 18 Septembers on record, MELI's average change was minus 3.5 percent, and it rose in 33.3 percent of them.

Month	Average change	Middle change	Share of years up	Years
September	-3.5%	-4.3%	33.3%	18
October	+0.6%	-0.7%	36.8%	19
November	+5.6%	+3.3%	52.6%	19

Each figure is a month end to month end change in past years. A past month says nothing certain about the next one.

Monthly history through 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Headlines

The desk's news feeds carried 1 headline naming MELI in the 3 days to 28 Sep 2026.

Figure	Value
Headlines in the window	1
Latest	28 Sep 2026

The titles are in the Headlines window, with the time each was published.

Headlines as of 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Questions

What is MELI's IV rank?: MELI's IV rank is 53 of 100 on 28 Sep 2026.
What move are MELI options pricing?: On 28 Sep 2026, MELI options priced a move of 12.8 percent down and 12.7 percent up by 30 Oct 2026.
Where are MELI's call wall and put wall?: On 28 Sep 2026, MELI's call wall is the 1,800 strike and its put wall is the 1,700 strike.
What was the latest Trade Card for MELI on the Free plan?: On 25 Sep 2026 the Trade Card for MELI was a bear put spread expiring 18 Dec 2026, paper trading.
When does MELI report earnings next?: MELI reports next on 4 Nov 2026, a date confirmed by the company.

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