Energy

Phillips 66 (PSX) options and signal

Figures as of 28 Sep 2026

PSX is Phillips 66, an Energy name the model ranks every trading day. The options figures are from the close on 28 Sep 2026. The model's figures are from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind the latest, as the Free plan shows them. Every model figure is paper trading.

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At a glance

Figure	Value	Date
Trade Card	Bear call spread, 18 Dec	25 Sep
IV rank	97 of 100	28 Sep
At the money IV	49.6%	28 Sep
Priced move to 30 Oct	14.6% down, 14.5% up	28 Sep
Call wall and put wall	280 and 220	28 Sep
Signal and the desk's view	Bearish signal, view bearish	25 Sep
Last close	253.55	28 Sep
Next report	28 Oct 2026	28 Sep

Trade Cards

On 25 Sep 2026 the Trade Card for PSX was a bear call spread expiring 18 Dec 2026, paper trading.

Figure	Value
Signal	Bearish, over 45 trading days
Strategy	Bear call spread, credit
Legs	Sell the 290 call, Buy the 330 call
Expiry	18 Dec 2026, 84 days to expiry
Limit	A credit of at least $6.13
Probability of profit	70%, the option market's odds at expiry, from delta
Max loss	$3,387 per contract
Max profit	$613 per contract
Breakeven	296.13
IV rank at that expiry	92 of 100

Probability of profit is the option market's own odds from delta, not the model's.

Priced on the option chain at the close on 25 Sep 2026.

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Options Snapshot

PSX's IV rank is 97 of 100 on 28 Sep 2026.

Figure	Value
IV rank	97 of 100
At the money IV	49.6%, near month, 32 days
Put/call ratio, open interest	0.86
Call open interest, strikes captured near the price	29,400 contracts
Put open interest, strikes captured near the price	25,200 contracts
Cost to trade at the money	Fair, 21.1% of the option's mid price

IV rank is where the at the money IV sits among PSX's own weekly readings, 0 the lowest and 100 the highest.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Priced Range

On 28 Sep 2026, PSX options priced a move of 14.6 percent down and 14.5 percent up by 30 Oct 2026.

Expiry	Days	Down	Up	Range
2 Oct 2026	4	5.2%	5.9%	240.25 to 268.45
9 Oct 2026	11	8.2%	8.8%	232.85 to 275.95
23 Oct 2026	25	12.5%	12.3%	221.85 to 284.65
30 Oct 2026	32	14.6%	14.5%	216.55 to 290.35
20 Nov 2026	53	17.0%	17.7%	210.35 to 298.55
18 Dec 2026	81	21.8%	21.5%	198.15 to 308.15
19 Feb 2027	144	27.1%	28.8%	184.95 to 326.65

The range is one standard deviation either side of the close of 253.55, as the option prices imply it.

A priced move restates option prices at the close and says nothing certain about where the price goes.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Gamma Map

On 28 Sep 2026, PSX's call wall is the 280 strike and its put wall is the 220 strike.

Figure	Value
Call wall, most open call gamma	280
Put wall, most open put gamma	220
Net dollar gamma, calls minus puts	$1.81 million
Total dollar gamma, both sides	$22.37 million
Close	253.55

Dollar gamma is stated for a one percent move in the price.

Net is calls minus puts under the standard convention, not a record of who holds the contracts.

Net gamma changes sign at 11 strikes, so no single flip strike is named.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Volatility History

On 28 Sep 2026, PSX's at the money IV is 49.6 percent against 20 day realized volatility of 27.5 percent.

Figure	Value
At the money IV	49.6%
Realized volatility, 20 trading days	27.5%
Realized volatility, 60 trading days	30.7%
IV against its own weekly record	High, in the top fifth
Weekly readings on record	744, from 4 May 2012
Weeks the price moved more than the one week priced move	33.7% of 252 weeks

Realized volatility is worked out from the daily closes the desk holds, not from the option chain.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Volatility Weather

On 28 Sep 2026, PSX's at the money IV runs from 51.0 percent at 4 days to 44.9 percent at 144 days.

Days to expiry	At the money IV
4	51.0%
11	49.1%
18	47.2%
25	47.4%
39	50.8%
53	46.7%
81	46.0%
144	44.9%

Near expiries price more volatility than far ones, an inverted term structure.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Volatility Smile

On 28 Sep 2026, at the 32 day expiry, PSX's IV ten percent below the price sits 3.9 points above at the money IV.

Strike area	Implied volatility	Against at the money
10% below the price	53.5%	+3.9 points
At the money	49.6%	0.0 points
10% above the price	50.4%	+0.9 points

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Volatility Surface

On 28 Sep 2026, PSX's surface spans 10 expiries out to 144 days, with IV from 44.6 to 59.2 percent near the price.

Figure	Value
Expiries captured	10
Nearest expiry	2 Oct 2026, 4 days
Farthest expiry	19 Feb 2027, 144 days
Points within 10% of the price, 7 days out or more	80
Lowest IV among them	44.6%
Highest IV among them	59.2%

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Expiry Ladder

On 28 Sep 2026, PSX has 10 captured expiries, from 2 Oct 2026 to 19 Feb 2027.

Expiry	Days	At the money IV	Call open interest	Put open interest
2 Oct 2026	4	51.0%	1,037	1,489
9 Oct 2026	11	49.1%	454	892
16 Oct 2026	18	47.2%	6,543	8,886
23 Oct 2026	25	47.4%	303	250
30 Oct 2026	32	49.6%	243	277
6 Nov 2026	39	50.8%	17	22
20 Nov 2026	53	46.7%	4,794	5,186
18 Dec 2026	81	46.0%	6,813	3,841
15 Jan 2027	109	45.1%	7,876	3,709
19 Feb 2027	144	44.9%	1,291	688

Open interest is summed over the strikes captured near the price on each expiry.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Strike Table

On 28 Sep 2026, PSX's largest open interest sits at the 220 strike, with 7,098 contracts across the captured expiries.

Strike	Call open interest	Put open interest	Total
220	2,268	4,830	7,098
200	1,653	4,964	6,617
210	1,456	3,173	4,629
230	2,629	1,750	4,379
280	3,393	157	3,550
250	1,297	2,072	3,369

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Since Yesterday

From 25 Sep 2026 to 28 Sep 2026, PSX's at the money IV moved from 42.1 percent to 49.6 percent.

Figure	25 Sep	28 Sep	Change
At the money IV	42.1%	49.6%	+7.5 points
Open interest, strikes captured near the price	56,225	54,611	-1,614
Put/call ratio, open interest	0.88	0.86	-0.02

Open interest changes cannot identify buyers or sellers.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

Open Since Yesterday in RingMaster The Since Yesterday guide

Changed Hands

On 28 Sep 2026, 6,954 PSX option contracts traded, 0.7 times its own recent average.

Figure	Value
Calls traded	3,807
Puts traded	3,147
Against its recent average	0.7 times
Busier than	0 of its last 20 trading days
Open interest, whole chain	71,271 contracts
Volume to open interest	0.10
Unusual volume flag	No

Traded volume and open interest are shown side by side and never combined. Open interest changes cannot identify buyers or sellers.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Positioning Replay

The replay holds 33 trading days of PSX's option positioning, from 11 Aug 2026 to 28 Sep 2026.

Date	Close	Net dollar gamma	Top call strike	Top put strike
11 Aug 2026	224.36	$10.33 million	220	200
21 Sep 2026	261.75	$2.67 million	280	220
28 Sep 2026	253.55	$1.81 million	280	220

Each frame restates one nightly capture. Net is calls minus puts, a convention, not who holds the contracts.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Read-out

On 25 Sep 2026 the desk's view of PSX was bearish, paper trading.

Figure	Value
Side	Bearish at 45 trading days, signal on
Level above the close	277.12, the swing high of 18 Sep 2026, a close past it runs against the view
Level below the close	253.41, the swing low of 14 Sep 2026
The chart	Sits against the view
Strategy family	Bear call spread (sell a call spread above the price)
Price target	None. The desk has no price model.

The levels are prices the shares turned at on the chart, with the date of each.

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Rank by Timeframe

On 25 Sep 2026 PSX sat at the 1st percentile of the model's 45 trading day ranking, paper trading.

Timeframe	Percentile	Side
10 trading days	71 of 100	Neutral
20 trading days	3 of 100	Bearish
45 trading days	1 of 100	Bearish

100 is the top of the ranking. A name in the middle three fifths is neutral.

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Timeframe Agreement

On 25 Sep 2026, 2 of 3 timeframes put PSX on the bearish side, paper trading.

Group	Timeframes	Side	On that side
Near	10 day, 20 day	Bearish	1 of 2
Long	45 day	Bearish	1 of 1

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Signal History

On 25 Sep 2026 PSX's bearish signal had held 2 trading days in a row, paper trading.

Trading day	Signal	45 day percentile
25 Sep 2026	Bearish	1 of 100
24 Sep 2026	Bearish	1 of 100
23 Sep 2026	None	6 of 100
22 Sep 2026	Bearish	5 of 100
21 Sep 2026	Bearish	2 of 100
18 Sep 2026	None	11 of 100
17 Sep 2026	None	4 of 100
16 Sep 2026	None	6 of 100

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Sector Split

On 25 Sep 2026, 17 of 56 Energy names were bullish and 33 were bearish, paper trading.

Sector	Names	Bullish	Bearish	Neutral
Energy	56	17	33	6

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Price Chart

PSX closed at 253.55 on 28 Sep 2026.

Figure	Value
Last close	253.55
Change over 5 trading days	-3.1%
Change over 21 trading days	+5.7%
Change over 63 trading days	+45.7%
Change over 252 trading days	+82.3%
52 week high	277.12
52 week low	126.74
20 day moving average	258.82
50 day moving average	236.71
200 day moving average	181.69
RSI, 14 days	52

Worked out from the desk's own daily bars, adjusted for share splits.

From the daily bars through 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Earnings Radar

PSX reports next on 28 Oct 2026, a date confirmed by the company.

Figure	Value
Next report	28 Oct 2026, before the open
Date	Confirmed by the company
Move after the report of 5 Aug 2026	-1.6%
Move after the report of 30 Apr 2026	-1.6%
Move after the report of 28 Jan 2026	+1.4%
Move after the report of 25 Apr 2025	-0.7%

Earnings calendar as of 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Short Volume

On 25 Sep 2026, 42.8 percent of PSX's reported volume at the covered venues was marked short.

Figure	Value
Short sale share, 25 Sep	42.8%
Five day average	51.4%
52 week median	52.2%

Short sale volume counts trades marked short at the covered venues, mostly off exchange. It is not the same as short interest.

Short volume as of 25 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Seasonality

In the 14 Septembers on record, PSX's average change was minus 0.6 percent, and it rose in 50.0 percent of them.

Month	Average change	Middle change	Share of years up	Years
September	-0.6%	-0.1%	50.0%	14
October	+3.2%	+0.4%	57.1%	14
November	+4.5%	+3.4%	71.4%	14

Each figure is a month end to month end change in past years. A past month says nothing certain about the next one.

Monthly history through 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Headlines

The desk's news feeds carried 5 headlines naming PSX in the 3 days to 28 Sep 2026.

Figure	Value
Headlines in the window	5
Latest	28 Sep 2026

The titles are in the Headlines window, with the time each was published.

Headlines as of 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Questions

What is PSX's IV rank?: PSX's IV rank is 97 of 100 on 28 Sep 2026.
What move are PSX options pricing?: On 28 Sep 2026, PSX options priced a move of 14.6 percent down and 14.5 percent up by 30 Oct 2026.
Where are PSX's call wall and put wall?: On 28 Sep 2026, PSX's call wall is the 280 strike and its put wall is the 220 strike.
What was the latest Trade Card for PSX on the Free plan?: On 25 Sep 2026 the Trade Card for PSX was a bear call spread expiring 18 Dec 2026, paper trading.
When does PSX report earnings next?: PSX reports next on 28 Oct 2026, a date confirmed by the company.

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