Industrials

The Timken Company (TKR) options and signal

Figures as of 28 Sep 2026

TKR is The Timken Company, an Industrials name the model ranks every trading day. The options figures are from the close on 28 Sep 2026. The model's figures are from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind the latest, as the Free plan shows them. Every model figure is paper trading.

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At a glance

Figure	Value	Date
IV rank	84 of 100	28 Sep
At the money IV	42.6%	28 Sep
Priced move to 16 Oct	11.3% down, 9.3% up	28 Sep
Call wall and put wall	120 and 115	28 Sep
Signal and the desk's view	No signal, view bullish	25 Sep
Last close	116.75	28 Sep
Next report	28 Oct 2026	28 Sep

Options Snapshot

TKR's IV rank is 84 of 100 on 28 Sep 2026.

Figure	Value
IV rank	84 of 100
At the money IV	42.6%, near month, 18 days
Put/call ratio, open interest	0.42
Call open interest, strikes captured near the price	2,600 contracts
Put open interest, strikes captured near the price	1,080 contracts
Cost to trade at the money	Fair, 34.4% of the option's mid price

IV rank is where the at the money IV sits among TKR's own weekly readings, 0 the lowest and 100 the highest.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Priced Range

On 28 Sep 2026, TKR options priced a move of 11.3 percent down and 9.3 percent up by 16 Oct 2026.

Expiry	Days	Down	Up	Range
16 Oct 2026	18	11.3%	9.3%	103.55 to 127.55
20 Nov 2026	53	16.7%	17.0%	97.25 to 136.65
18 Dec 2026	81	21.4%	20.6%	91.75 to 140.85
19 Mar 2027	172	28.1%	30.0%	83.95 to 151.75

The range is one standard deviation either side of the close of 116.75, as the option prices imply it.

A priced move restates option prices at the close and says nothing certain about where the price goes.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Gamma Map

On 28 Sep 2026, TKR's call wall is the 120 strike and its put wall is the 115 strike.

Figure	Value
Call wall, most open call gamma	120
Put wall, most open put gamma	115
Net dollar gamma, calls minus puts	$190,576
Total dollar gamma, both sides	$670,522
Close	116.75

Dollar gamma is stated for a one percent move in the price.

Net is calls minus puts under the standard convention, not a record of who holds the contracts.

Net gamma changes sign at 3 strikes, so no single flip strike is named.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Volatility History

On 28 Sep 2026, TKR's at the money IV is 42.6 percent against 20 day realized volatility of 22.2 percent.

Figure	Value
At the money IV	42.6%
Realized volatility, 20 trading days	22.2%
Realized volatility, 60 trading days	32.2%
IV against its own weekly record	High, in the top fifth
Weekly readings on record	843, from 8 Jan 2010
Weeks the price moved more than the one week priced move	24.0% of 233 weeks

Realized volatility is worked out from the daily closes the desk holds, not from the option chain.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Volatility Weather

On 28 Sep 2026, TKR's at the money IV runs from 42.6 percent at 18 days to 43.6 percent at 172 days.

Days to expiry	At the money IV
18	42.6%
53	45.4%
81	43.1%
172	43.6%

Far expiries price more volatility than near ones, an upward sloping term structure.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Volatility Smile

On 28 Sep 2026, at the 53 day expiry, TKR's IV ten percent below the price sits 17.7 points above at the money IV.

Strike area	Implied volatility	Against at the money
10% below the price	63.2%	+17.7 points
At the money	45.4%	0.0 points
10% above the price	44.4%	-1.0 points

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Volatility Surface

On 28 Sep 2026, TKR's surface spans 4 expiries out to 172 days, with IV from 38.0 to 109.9 percent near the price.

Figure	Value
Expiries captured	4
Nearest expiry	16 Oct 2026, 18 days
Farthest expiry	19 Mar 2027, 172 days
Points within 10% of the price, 7 days out or more	16
Lowest IV among them	38.0%
Highest IV among them	109.9%

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Expiry Ladder

On 28 Sep 2026, TKR has 4 captured expiries, from 16 Oct 2026 to 19 Mar 2027.

Expiry	Days	At the money IV	Call open interest	Put open interest
16 Oct 2026	18	42.6%	199	133
20 Nov 2026	53	45.4%	1,173	518
18 Dec 2026	81	43.1%	778	80
19 Mar 2027	172	43.6%	449	348

Open interest is summed over the strikes captured near the price on each expiry.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Strike Table

On 28 Sep 2026, TKR's largest open interest sits at the 115 strike, with 637 contracts across the captured expiries.

Strike	Call open interest	Put open interest	Total
115	106	531	637
120	435	27	462
160	415	0	415
85	95	266	361
130	265	8	273
125	148	36	184

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Since Yesterday

From 25 Sep 2026 to 28 Sep 2026, TKR's at the money IV moved from 41.0 percent to 42.6 percent.

Figure	25 Sep	28 Sep	Change
At the money IV	41.0%	42.6%	+1.5 points
Open interest, strikes captured near the price	3,671	3,678	+7
Put/call ratio, open interest	0.41	0.42	+0.01

Open interest changes cannot identify buyers or sellers.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Changed Hands

On 28 Sep 2026, 1,191 TKR option contracts traded, 1.2 times its own recent average.

Figure	Value
Calls traded	333
Puts traded	858
Against its recent average	1.2 times
Busier than	18 of its last 20 trading days
Open interest, whole chain	3,726 contracts
Volume to open interest	0.32
Unusual volume flag	No

Traded volume and open interest are shown side by side and never combined. Open interest changes cannot identify buyers or sellers.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Positioning Replay

The replay holds 32 trading days of TKR's option positioning, from 11 Aug 2026 to 28 Sep 2026.

Date	Close	Net dollar gamma	Top call strike	Top put strike
11 Aug 2026	128.54	$211,359	120	130
21 Sep 2026	114.84	$110,269	120	115
28 Sep 2026	116.75	$190,576	120	115

Each frame restates one nightly capture. Net is calls minus puts, a convention, not who holds the contracts.

From the option chain at the close on 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Read-out

On 25 Sep 2026 the desk's view of TKR was bullish, paper trading.

Figure	Value
Side	Bullish at 45 trading days, no signal
Level above the close	119.12, the swing high of 23 Sep 2026
Level below the close	114.85, the swing low of 16 Sep 2026, a close past it runs against the view
The chart	Sits against the view
Strategy family	Cash-secured put (sell a put below the price)
Price target	None. The desk has no price model.

The levels are prices the shares turned at on the chart, with the date of each.

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Rank by Timeframe

On 25 Sep 2026 TKR sat at the 83rd percentile of the model's 45 trading day ranking, paper trading.

Timeframe	Percentile	Side
10 trading days	94 of 100	Bullish
20 trading days	87 of 100	Bullish
45 trading days	83 of 100	Bullish

100 is the top of the ranking. A name in the middle three fifths is neutral.

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Timeframe Agreement

On 25 Sep 2026, 3 of 3 timeframes put TKR on the bullish side, paper trading.

Group	Timeframes	Side	On that side
Near	10 day, 20 day	Bullish	2 of 2
Long	45 day	Bullish	1 of 1

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Signal History

On 25 Sep 2026 TKR had carried no signal for 3 trading days, paper trading.

Trading day	Signal	45 day percentile
25 Sep 2026	None	83 of 100
24 Sep 2026	None	86 of 100
23 Sep 2026	None	83 of 100
22 Sep 2026	Bullish	96 of 100
21 Sep 2026	Bullish	97 of 100
18 Sep 2026	None	83 of 100
17 Sep 2026	Bullish	95 of 100
16 Sep 2026	None	84 of 100

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Sector Split

On 25 Sep 2026, 51 of 147 Industrials names were bullish and 37 were bearish, paper trading.

Sector	Names	Bullish	Bearish	Neutral
Industrials	147	51	37	59

Paper trading. The model's figures from 25 Sep 2026, one trading day behind, as the Free plan shows them.

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Price Chart

TKR closed at 116.75 on 28 Sep 2026.

Figure	Value
Last close	116.75
Change over 5 trading days	+1.7%
Change over 21 trading days	-6.3%
Change over 63 trading days	-18.6%
Change over 252 trading days	+57.3%
52 week high	146.37
52 week low	70.57
20 day moving average	118.37
50 day moving average	126.41
200 day moving average	113.99
RSI, 14 days	40

Worked out from the desk's own daily bars, adjusted for share splits.

From the daily bars through 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Earnings Radar

TKR reports next on 28 Oct 2026, a date worked out from past quarters.

Figure	Value
Next report	28 Oct 2026, before the open
Date	Worked out from past quarters
Move after the report of 29 Jul 2026	+2.9%
Move after the report of 30 Apr 2026	-1.7%
Move after the report of 28 Jan 2026	+0.8%
Move after the report of 30 Apr 2025	-1.6%

Earnings calendar as of 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Seasonality

In the 23 Septembers on record, TKR's average change was minus 1.1 percent, and it rose in 47.8 percent of them.

Month	Average change	Middle change	Share of years up	Years
September	-1.1%	-0.3%	47.8%	23
October	+0.4%	+0.9%	52.2%	23
November	+4.1%	+3.7%	65.2%	23

Each figure is a month end to month end change in past years. A past month says nothing certain about the next one.

Monthly history through 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Headlines

The desk's news feeds carried 2 headlines naming TKR in the 3 days to 28 Sep 2026.

Figure	Value
Headlines in the window	2
Latest	28 Sep 2026

The titles are in the Headlines window, with the time each was published.

Headlines as of 28 Sep 2026. Current on every plan.

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Questions

What is TKR's IV rank?: TKR's IV rank is 84 of 100 on 28 Sep 2026.
What move are TKR options pricing?: On 28 Sep 2026, TKR options priced a move of 11.3 percent down and 9.3 percent up by 16 Oct 2026.
Where are TKR's call wall and put wall?: On 28 Sep 2026, TKR's call wall is the 120 strike and its put wall is the 115 strike.
What was the desk's latest view of TKR on the Free plan?: On 25 Sep 2026 the desk's view of TKR was bullish, paper trading.
When does TKR report earnings next?: TKR reports next on 28 Oct 2026, a date worked out from past quarters.

More Industrials names

Guides and the full list

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Strike	Call open interest	Put open interest	Total
115	106	531	637
120	435	27	462
160	415	0	415
85	95	266	361
130	265	8	273
125	148	36	184

Strike	Call open interest	Put open interest	Total
115	106	531	637
120	435	27	462
160	415	0	415
85	95	266	361
130	265	8	273
125	148	36	184

Strike	Call open interest	Put open interest	Total
115	106	531	637
120	435	27	462
160	415	0	415
85	95	266	361
130	265	8	273
125	148	36	184